Bigger Mistake: Phillips or Hansen?

[Rushmore]

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The play is obviously just call or move in. Moving in is clearly better if you don't factor in the difference between second and third place. When you do factor it in it is close.

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You made my day.

I was beginning to think I was an absolute donk.

[Bernas]

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No way. I will just quit posting if this is allowed.

Vince [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Fingers crossed.

[MMMMMM]

Vince, if I may make a suggestion: you have some good thoughts in this thread, but the absolute way you stated some of them drew a lot of attacks. I know that stating opinions bluntly is the 2+2 way, and I have even been known to do it myself at times, so I'm not faulting you for this, just observing.

Some of these posters even descended to the mean lowness of personal attacks; however, if you were to couch your poker strategy observations and questions in somewhat more exploratory and less absolutist terms I would think that you would get much more cooperation and encounter far less resistance. Not faulting you here, just trying to make a suggestion, since it seems that on the Internet, egos get involved even more so than in live game settings. People get the mistaken feeling that if their ideas were wrong, THEY themselves as a person were wrong; hence we see ego wars and flame wars exploding all over the Internet.

You took a hiatus here a long time ago and got wrapped up in that wasteland known as RGP(;-)); I hope you will not disappear again. As for the other posters attacking Vince: give him a little bit of a break, he's only human too, and even if some of his ideas are wrong, he comes up with many good ideas too, and unique perspectives as well. You guys just need to learn to separate the wheat from the chaff. Of course it will help if Vince doesn't claim it's all wheat (and he doesn't, even if he sometimes claims something wrongly).

Anyway until I read Paul's description of the hand on his website, I'll have nothing further to add, except for this: I too would probably have just called with AQ because of the prize money considerations. I could well be wrong but that is what seems intuitively best to me.

[ChrisW]

Paul Phillips wrote:

> If I was going to take any issue with his play, I'd say
> that given our stack sizes and the large strength of his
> hand, he would have been better off limping the button.
> That would have pinned us perfectly. If dewey moved in
> (which he might do with random cards) gus could call him
> and figure to be a large favorite. If I raised him he
> could limp re-raise me off a hand like AQ. And if we
> checked it, TT is still a great hand to have three-handed
> with position.

Paul,

One thing I have noticed from poker broadcasts is that Gus rerely seems to limp (I saw him limp a couple of times at a full table with a small pair in early position, but not otherwise), and to my recollection he has never been shown limping in a shorthanded game. So, two questions:

1) Obviously, TV doesn't show many hands. Does Gus limp more than it appears?

2) If your answer to #1 is "not appreciably," wouldn't the TT limp look fishy? I agree that limp reraising on the button can be a good way to avoid a confrontation (Howard Lederer used that technique against Ron Rose in what I believe was WPT Foxwoods to win a nice pot with AK vs TT), but it seems like that technique could only be utilized by a player who also limp-folds.

[Daliman]

Wow, are YOU barking up the wrong tree, Fido.

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> You say MY reasoning was silly, yet then refute it by
> using a hypothetical situation when a literal one exists.

Do you really have such a poor understanding of logical argumentation? It's called a "counter-example." The point is that racing vs. non-racing has nothing to do with whether to call a bet. The idea in tournaments is to avoid high variance, small +EV plays. Often times, a race falls into that category of plays to avoid, but not always, especially when you've already committed chips to a pot and expect to be on the better side of the race.


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First off, I'm very familiar woth point and counterpoint, but THERE IS A POINT AT HAND!!! Why counterpoint with a different example when the different example has a COMPLETELY different BASIS of fact? Here's an example, what if gus had raised initially to 1.8 million, and paul pushes, then shows Gus he has two aces, Dewey folds HIS two tens face up, then a little kid in the audience throws a red hat into the air, and a purple monkey climbs out of a dishwasher? What's the right play then?

THERE IS CONTEXT AT HAND, MORON!

Funny that you also say;
The idea in tournaments is to avoid high variance, small +EV plays.

But try to temper it with the fact that;
Often times, a race falls into that category of plays to avoid, but not always, especially when you've already committed chips to a pot and expect to be on the better side of the race.

Ok, exactly what tells him he can "expect" to be in a race with a 57-43 edge? He could just as easily be an 82-18 dog, or even in a race with lesser odds than 57-43. Unless PP makes this play with 88 or 99(possible, but doubtful), a race is his BEST case scenario, as I have stated before..


Next up, yer BS mincing;
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> Gus had raised barely over 10% of his stack and called 2M
> more for a shot at ~2.6M.

There are those pesky little blinds and antes, so it's more like 2.7M.


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Well, lets see,
50K BB + 250K raise + 2.3M effective reraise(of which the 25K SB is included)=2.6M, plus possibly 30k in blinds, but I was going off of the info at hand in Vince's initial post, as you seemed to be. Either way, my estimate was closer. If yer gonna bust balls over a less than 4% difference, it helps to be right.

P.S. ChrisW, meet ~. ~, meet ChrisW. Since you two obviously have not been formally introduced, I'll explain that ~ is called "tilde" and means "about" or "approximately" in this context.

On to;
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Are you talking about chip EV when you say "little actual difference in EV"? If so, you need to retake junior high school algrebra before you post again. Gus was calling T2M to win a pot of T4.7M 57% of the time. His mathematical expectation is to come away with .57*T4.7M, which is T2.68M.


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Well, first off, this is 4th grade math, not algebra. B., I was inferring either way, chip or money EV, but more so $$ EV, but since you brought it up, let's factor in the fact that GH may be against a bigger pair only 20% of the time(which is probably a low estimate, but I'll play along). We'll even continue with the 57/43 even though it could just as easily be a 54-46(since you introduced the mincing, I'll play too, except I'm right in mine).
.57 X4.6M X.8=2,097,600
.18 X4.6M X.2+165,600

So total EV then is 2,263,200 IF only factoring a 20% chance it is behind. +EV, to be sure, but assuming a LOT. With the difference in prize $$$ factored, it's a marginal play at BEST. Also, before you say tens are WAY more likely to be ahead 3 handed, I refer you to the 2002 WSOP where 3 handed, Julian Gardner's TT which he mucked preflop due to the action was the THIRD best hand dealt to Varkonyi's AA and Ralph Perry's JJ. Julian knew he may have had the best hand, but folded for the equity of second ALONG WITH the fact that he may have been beaten already. You REALLY need to quit assuming a race was a given. It wasn't.


Now, you REALLY start getting dumb;
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To understand the absurdity of your claim is that there is "little actual difference in EV" between calling and folding, let's imagine that Gus lays down the TT. On the next hand, Gus is in the BB with AKo, and he has T2M left before posting. Paul moves Gus in from the button and accidentally flashes Gus 87o. Should Gus call? This looks like an ideal spot, right? Well, AKo will beat 87o 62.4% of the time for a T4.06M pot (T2M each from Gus and Paul, plus T60K from Dewey's SB and ante). That gives Gus an expected chip return of .624*T4.06M, which is T2.54M. That's T140K less than his EV from calling on the actual TT vs. AQ.


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And you say MY contention is absurd...

You are comparing a POSSIBLE EV to a LITERAL EV. There is a GIGANTIC DIFFERENCE! This is somewhat similar to the oft-posted about AK vs QJ hand first hand of WSOP main event, and accentuates difference in styles, expectations, and amount of gamble in different players. This is WAY different. This is for direct $$$, and possibly a coveted title, not just a slightly better shot at $$$.

I'm not quite sure what you do for a living, but I play poker. Tournament poker, to be more concise, and Sit and Go's, to be exact. I have likely forgetten more about EV that most will ever know, and from the sounds of it, you are DEFINITELY included in that group. Patronize elsewhere.

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This example proves that given the actual hands, Gus's best chance to have a lot of chips and win the tournament was to call, as even a great situation of all in with AK vs 87 on the next hand would yield a lower chip EV than calling with the TT.


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Again, this means Gus felt uncomfortable actually "playing" poker with Dewey and/or Paul, which he'd not be stupid at all to do, but I can assure you is not the case with Gus. On a PSI episode, he had a similar instance where he had an open-ended straight flush draw on a paired flop, he check rsised Howard Lederer with it, and Howard reraised allin with his flopped trips. Gus went over the #'s in his head, and came to the correct conclusion that even though calling was likely +EV(which it was), factored with the fact that he could be drawing to only 4 total outs, he thought there were better spots for his money. He IS capable of a proper fold when he has a stack worth playing/protecting, yet chose not to here. Your hypothetical situation "proves" nothing.

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As I said in my previous post, there are some payout considerations that make the cash EV question closer.

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Wow, you finally said something right. Congrats. And welcome to the forum, newbie.

[Paul Phillips]

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1) Obviously, TV doesn't show many hands. Does Gus limp more than it appears?

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I think everyone limps more than it appears on television because limped pots are less likely to lead to all-ins and therefore less likely to make the program. However, I'll agree that he doesn't limp all that often. He is much more apt to make small raises.

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2) If your answer to #1 is "not appreciably," wouldn't the TT limp look fishy?

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Yes, this is a fair point; I was imagining it in the context of a metastrategy that includes sufficient limping to keep this from leaking too much information. I limp the button more often than a lot of people do precisely to keep this option open to me. Not having played 3-handed with gus other than at that table, I'm not sure how I would have interpreted a limp. It's likely I would have seen it as a sensible attempt to avoid playing a big pot with me, as opposed to an attempt to trap.

[DimensionPresident]

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Is it just me or is Vince just a giant douche bag?


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Matt,

Are you allowing this kind of stuff on this forum now? I'd like to see this fellows posting priveleges suspended. If you don't suspend him then please ensure he cannot reply to any of my posts. I will do in kind to his.
If neither can be done, I do understand but regrettably will not post on 2 + 2 again. Thank you.

Vince [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Cry baby sh_t like this only reinforces your douche-itude. As previously stated, I would have put a little more time into the insult if I thought you were worth it. Possibly one with no "bad words", but one that also carried the same message... which is I think you're a giant douche bag.

Carry on with SNORE FEST 2004.

[Mat Sklansky]

It is likely that Vince was a little thin-skinned, but this post on top of your other post means you are the one who will be leaving the forums.

[Daliman]

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It is likely that Vince was a little thin-skinned, but this post on top of your other post means you are the one who will be leaving the forums.

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Possibly warranted, but MAN, do i hate the stoking effect.

[offTopic]

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I believe that both Hansen and Philips made big mistakes on this hand. I know I'm right about that

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Somehow that's cute when david does it. With you, the effect is to prove you should keep your psychiatrist on speed-dial.

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He may already be doing that...it's been nearly two days, and he hasn't accused you of being someone else yet.