Big draws.

[Arnett23]

In the money in 1k+ person $5 tourney on pstars, I am playing to win, avg stack was 18kish around 95 people left. Villain was a weaker player pushing around his big stack till he got caught a few times and went from 50k-28k. I have been buying alot of pots so my image at table is probably a little loose.

PokerStars Game #805798090: Tournament #3115779, Hold'em No Limit -
Level XI (600/1200) - 2004/10/27 - 22:58:54 (ET)
Table '3115779 28' Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: Marathon_Man (46066 in chips)
Seat 3: lboogie1415 (16180 in chips)
Seat 4: chipsalot (3979 in chips)
Seat 5: gonzo16 (13385 in chips)
Seat 6: riders23 (26757 in chips)
Seat 7: BH217 (13419 in chips) is sitting out
Seat 8: crazy4cards (9358 in chips)
Seat 9: paulr453 (28498 in chips)
Marathon_Man: posts the ante 75
lboogie1415: posts the ante 75
chipsalot: posts the ante 75
gonzo16: posts the ante 75
riders23: posts the ante 75
BH217: posts the ante 75
crazy4cards: posts the ante 75
paulr453: posts the ante 75
gonzo16: posts small blind 600
riders23: posts big blind 1200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to riders23 [Jh Qh]
BH217: folds
crazy4cards: calls 1200
paulr453: calls 1200
Marathon_Man: folds
lboogie1415: folds
chipsalot: folds
gonzo16: folds
riders23: checks
*** FLOP *** [8d Th 2h]
BH217 has returned
riders23: bets 3600
crazy4cards: folds
paulr453: raises 23623 to 27223 and is all-in

Me and my brother have differing opinions, I was wondering what some of you would do here.

Thanks

[Arnett23]

Anyone? Clear fold or clear call or what?

thanks

[montybear]

looks to me like a pretty easy fold. unless you actually think he's lost his mind gambling, your chance of hitting the flush even with over cards, doesn't seem to warrant risking it all here.

[jslag]

If he just lost several big pots and appears to be on tilt, I might consider a call here.

Did you think your overs were good? If so, then I think you should call here if you read him as being on tilt. Otherwise, it's a fold.

The problem is that you don't want to risk your tournament life when you don't know how clean your outs are.

I think that bet stinks of weakness. He might actually have a better flush draw than you, which would be very bad news if you called.

Tough spot, but without a very solid read on how tilted/crazy the guy is, I'd fold. Did you see how he built his stack up? Was he playing well or was he a lucky-aggressive-maniac type?

J.

[montybear]

well, i forgot about the gutshot draw, but I would still fold.

However, saying that, if you put him on something like AT, with the Ah, your EV works out like this;
pokenum -h jh qh - ah tc -- 2h 8c th
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 8c Th 2h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qh Jh 561 56.67 429 43.33 0 0.00 0.567
Tc Ah 429 43.33 561 56.67 0 0.00 0.433

numbers don't change much even if you up against pocket jacks, so appearantly a call would be better.

[nsj]

I don't like calling all my chips when there's a 99.999% chance that I'm behind.

You might have 19 outs (9 hearts, 4 9s, 3Js, 3Qs), but you might have only 4-8 that are clean (if he's on a bigger flush draw, or holding TJ or TQ).

IMO, this is an extremely easy fold.

[Eder]

Easy fold...play at him the same way when you get a hand...

[sofere]

Hypothetically, how about same situation except you have Kh? or Ah? In other words you still have 2 overcards with gutshot straight draw and are 4 flush w/no straight flush draw. So Instead of drawing to the 3rd nut flush, you're drawing to top or 2nd nut. Any thoughts?