Plugging leaks or creating them on river aggression

Quercus · #1 10-27-2004, 02:25 PM

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (10 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. UTG+1 posts a blind of $1.
UTG folds, UTG+1 (poster) checks, UTG+2 folds, MP1 folds, Hero calls, MP3 folds, CO calls, Button calls, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets, CO raises, Button calls, SB folds, BB folds, UTG+1 folds, Hero 3-bets, CO calls, Button calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero bets, CO calls, Button calls.

River: (10.50 BB) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks...

Against a single opponents, its an easy bet as they are more likely to be sitting on Kx than a couple of spades. With a third player in there, I'm not so sure though.

jrz1972 · #2 10-27-2004, 02:42 PM

I bet, and I don't really consider it a close decision. The decision to 3-bet a possible raise is closer IMO.

nyc999 · #3 10-27-2004, 02:51 PM

The CO's stop and go makes me believe flush draw, but I think you need to bet out and fold to a raise.

Aaron W. · #4 10-27-2004, 02:57 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Against a single opponents, its an easy bet as they are more likely to be sitting on Kx than a couple of spades.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's still an easy bet as they are still more likely to be sitting on Kx and other hand that you beat than a couple spades (or 97, which also beats you).

I wouldn't push my luck by 3-betting if I get raised, though. The times that you win an extra bet by seeing KT's rivered two pair are offset by the number of times you lose two bets and see a flush.

[ QUOTE ]
With a third player in there, I'm not so sure though.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't worry until 3 other players are in with you (4 total) -- and even then, I still might bet it.

ggano · #5 10-27-2004, 02:59 PM

I agree that this is an easy bet. With 3 or 4 opponents I'd be pretty cautious, but with 2 it's definitely worth a bet.

I can't imagine 3-betting though without a specific read, though. You're pretty much hoping for specifically KT or a bluff.

GrunchCan · #6 10-27-2004, 03:08 PM

I bet. But my reasoning for doing so is unsound. I'd like to hear a more rigorous treatment of this scenario as well. I think its warranted, too. Situations like this are common.

Anyone?

Quercus · #7 10-27-2004, 03:17 PM

[ QUOTE ]
and fold to a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think a fold to a raise would be correct. At least one time in 13.5 villain will have just hit 2 pair or worse.

srt19170 · #8 10-27-2004, 03:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]

I'd like to hear a more rigorous treatment of this scenario as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure how rigorous you can be here...

My concern is that if CO is a good player, his betting is correct for a flush draw (he correctly raises for value on the flop with 5 opponents, correctly calls when two of them drop out, and then correctly calls on the turn) and can't be explained by any other holding. (If he's a bad player, the betting might be explained by a semi-bluff or just random play.)

Interestingly, if Hero had slowed down on the flop CO wouldn't have the pot odds to call on the turn.

-- Scott

Entity · #9 10-27-2004, 03:34 PM

I'll be honest: this is a ridiculously easy river bet for me, against almost any number of players. With more opponents, value betting becomes easier, because while you're beat more often, you net more for each caller when you aren't beat. Against 2 players, you have to be good here slightly more often than 33% (I'd say being good 40% of the time is definitely +EV). A set of 8's here is good against these players far more often than that -- I'd say as often as 70% of the time.

If you get raised on the river, it comes down to reads, but I think you have to call (as much as it sucks).

Rob

Entity · #10 10-27-2004, 03:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I'd like to hear a more rigorous treatment of this scenario as well.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure how rigorous you can be here...

My concern is that if CO is a good player, his betting is correct for a flush draw (he correctly raises for value on the flop with 5 opponents, correctly calls when two of them drop out, and then correctly calls on the turn) and can't be explained by any other holding. (If he's a bad player, the betting might be explained by a semi-bluff or just random play.)

Interestingly, if Hero had slowed down on the flop CO wouldn't have the pot odds to call on the turn.

-- Scott

[/ QUOTE ]
If CO is a good player, he botched the flush draw play terribly -- he faced the entire field with two cold, which would often net him being HU against someone with a hand, when he only has a draw. If he's a bad player, I think the flush is more likely.

Rob