All-in call with a weak draw.... help settle a bet.

[tpir90036]

OK. A friend of mine played this hand in a home NL game last week. I was talking about it with a different friend and one of us thinks that he played it well and the other thinks he butchered it on almost every street. Please read over the hand and tell me what you think so that we can settle this:


8-handed NL with 2/5 blinds. UTG raises to $15, two callers one of which is the Villain (~$450). Villain is a solid aggressive player who splshes around a little but usually shows up with the goods or a huge draw when he makes a big move. Hero calls on the button with T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($650). 4 players to the flop...

Flop: ($67) 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG checks, MP checks, Villain bets $60, Hero raises to $200, UTG folds, MP folds, Villain makes it $450-ish and goes all-in. Hero calls.

Thoughts? Results and Hero's line of thinking to follow.

[ctide]

Preflop sucks. TBH, I have no clue how to handle the flop, but I'm definitely not raising if I'm the hero.

[schwza]

i'd fold before the flop and on the flop (to the first bet). too likely that villain has a set or flopped flush. overpair+bigger diamond is also possible (and horrible for hero).

[cornell2005]

fold preflop. raising the flop is really bad.

[obithrawn]

I dislike hero's action at every possible street here.

I'm not sure I even call the flop getting 3:1, but I'd like the math on why/why not if anyone has a good understanding of it.

[tpir90036]

assuming you make it to the all-in part of the hand though. do you call getting around 3:1?

[ctide]

Yes. At that point, you have no choice but to call. You've put yourself into a horrible situation, and you just have to call and pray that you hit your flush.

[tpir90036]

well you have to put villian on a range of hands and see how our crappy draw is doing against that range of hands and weight things accordingly. villain has:

A) a total bluff (EQ = 100%)
B) a small flush that our T-high draw will beat (EQ ~ 25% depending on SF re-draws)
C) an overcard draw with the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] only that puts our top pair slightly ahead (EQ = 52%)

of course, the chance that we are against a made hand or a bigger draw than ours needs to be considered too since that makes the 3:1 not look so hot:

D) drawing (mostly) dead to something like Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (EQ = 3%)
E) against a set (EQ = 31%)
F) an overpair or top pair with a bigger diamond (EQ ~ 14%)

you are getting 3:1 so you need 25% or better pot equity to call. so what % of the time will villain have the hands that i listed? hard to say. however, i have played with villian a lot and know that he is not on a total bluff into 3 people on this board. he knows that the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] could very well be out there....or he has it himself, but i sersiously doubt he would be doing this with the naked A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

so is P(A)*1 + P(B)*0.25 + P(C)*0.52 + P(D)*0.03 + P(E)*0.31 + P(F)*0.14 > 0.25??

hard to do all of this at the table obviously. but there be the math, roughly.

[Mackerel]

I haven't read the other responses yet, but I'm with the friend who said "butchered on every street". Horrible call pre-flop. Then, CALLING all-in with TP crappy-kicker and the 4th nut flush draw on this board is suicidal. Even if villian is a manic, this play stinks. Just my $0.02.

[josie_wales]

[ QUOTE ]
Hero calls on the button with T 9 ($650). 4 players to the flop...

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you are asking about the villains play, but you may want to consider folding preflop.

10/9 suited is a whole different story....But what are you hoping to flop here?

jw