flopped set on monotone board

jkstay · #1 10-26-2004, 11:23 PM

SB is extemely loose (72% VP$IP). He's very passive preflop, but aggressive post flop (ag factor of almost 3). UTG+1 is also loose (49% VP$IP), but he's more aggressive preflop (5% PFR) and passive post flop (.5 ag factor).

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP3 with 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, Hero raises, CO folds, Button folds, SB calls, BB folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
SB bets, UTG+1 raises, MP1 folds, Hero calls, SB calls.

Turn: (7.50 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets, UTG+1 raises, Hero folds

Did I do the right thing by folding facing 2 bets after the turn? Was calling 2 bets cold the right thing to do on the flop?

Thanks in advance for your feedback...

sublime · #2 10-26-2004, 11:49 PM

3-bet the flop (cuz you usually have the best hand, thats why)

The turn fold is very bad [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] You have 10 outs to the best hand (nevermind a good % of the time you will be ahead here)

welcome aboard

Richie Rich · #3 10-26-2004, 11:53 PM

Even if he had the flush, you are getting better than 4:1 to call his turn raise in order fill up on the river. On top of that, you very well may be ahead if he's raising with TPTK, two pair, or a naked A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]/K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. Unless a club fell on the river, I'd be inclined to call him down. Very poor fold, imo.

Nick C · #4 10-26-2004, 11:53 PM

There's no way I'm folding this turn. You have the odds to draw to your 10 outs, and I'm not even convinced you're behind.

I'd 3-bet the flop. Even if someone has a flush, you have a huge redraw. If the small blind is the only one with a club, you want him out. You don't know for certain whether you want him in or out, so what I'm hoping for most is that the flop gets capped 3-way. With two cards to come, you're going to make a full house or quads about a third of the time. And you may be ahead.

Some of the cards you want to see could be in your opponents' hands. But if that's the case, then it's that much more likely that you're ahead.

I do consider just calling the flop, as there's a very good chance I want the small blind to stay in. I'm curious what others have to say about that.

ecooke · #5 10-27-2004, 12:11 AM

No you did not do the right thing by folding.
You have a set on board showing three to a straight and three to a flush.
I repeat: you have a set.
Along with that set comes 10 outs on the turn. You are 1:3.5 to improve on the river and the pot is giving you 1:5.25 odds (assuming no 3-bet). You absolutely cannot fold in this situation. Raise the river if you hit, call unimproved.

EC

jkstay · #6 10-27-2004, 11:27 AM

Thanks everyone for your feedback. The past two nights have been rough (-70 BB...I know I need to be prepared for a slide 3 times as bad or more), so I got a little gunshy here when it was raised into me on the flop and turn on such a coordinated board. I figured I was "beat again" and might as well save myself a few bets. I know that's horrible thinking, and I need to work on not playing scared when I'm having a bad run...

Looking at it now, I realize I played this hand horribly. I definitely should have 3-bet the flop because:
1. I probably had the best hand at the time
2. I might have been able to get SB to fold if he just had one club, giving me a better chance to win the pot if UTG+1 didn't have a club (although SB was so loose I don't think he was folding anything).
3. I might have gotten SB and UTG+1 to check to me on the turn (which I then would have bet).

Even if I had choked on the flop and cold called instead of 3-bet, I still should have come back with a raise on the turn because:
1. I still probably had the best hand (and the best draw)
2. I might have scared them into thinking I had slowplayed a flush

I don't have the rest of the hand history in front of me, but it went something like this:
the river was an A (not [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]), and SB took it down with a pair of Aces (I don't think he had club in his hand). UTG+1 had a pair of 8's. At that time I decided to call it a night...