How Bad Is This Play?

[aLittleFish]

I think this hand is one example of many things I may do wrong at times. I can't seem to find a way to play these types of hands profitably, so I end up trying to just force my opponent out of the pot and if not successful, checking for Lady Luck at my side.

When I have position, I like to raise on the flop and then check behind on the turn if I catch a blank. Out of position though I feel I rely too much on shoving my stack and hoping that between folding equity and my outs, I'm keeping a +EV. I understand any set, two pair, or even A-K makes me a big dog and all of which except maybe A-K would easily call. Is there a better way to play this than spray n pray? Also, how weak of a hand would you call my bet if you were the villain?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (6 handed)

BB ($7.75)
UTG <font color="purple">(Villain)</font> ($27.25)
Hero ($53.45)
CO ($29.40)
Button ($9.05)
SB ($4.90)

Preflop: Hero is MP with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="CC3333">UTG <font color="purple">(Villain)</font> raises to $0.5</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to $1.5</font>, CO folds, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, UTG <font color="purple">(Villain)</font> calls $1.

Flop: ($3.35) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players)</font>
Villain checks, <font color="CC3333">Hero bets $3</font>, <font color="CC3333">Villain raises to $8.25</font>, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises to $51.95</font>, Villain calls $17.50 (All-In).

Turn: ($81.05) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

River: ($81.05) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(2 players, 1 all-in)</font>

Final Pot: $81.05

[ddubois]

Given that he only called the raise pre-flop, I'm dis-inclined to think he has AA or KK. 22 seems unlikely to have open-raised with. Once he check-raises you on the flop, I think we should put him on this range: TT, AKs, AKo. My analysis will be from that specific point in time.

You are a 42:57 dog to the stated range of hands using PokerStove. I gauge your EV of pushing (with 14.6 in the pot, 5.35 action to you, 17.5 more in his stack), if he folds 10% of the time, is about +$3.20. But even 10% may be unrealistically generous given what we think his hands are. A short-stacked guy is probably never going to fold AK here. With 0% fold equity, your EV of pushing is about +$1.90.

If you just call his CR, scope out the turn, and would be able to get the rest of his stack when you hit, then the EV of just calling his check-raise is about $4.50 -- but again, only if the average extraction is his entire stack. More likely, your extraction would be less, as some percentage of the time he may not call all-in when the 3rd diamond hits. Let's say you can only get $8 more from him, on average, when you hit the turn (and of course you probably will only be able to see the turn, as we assume he will charge you too much to see the river), then the EV of calling is $2.

So my conclusion is that it is a close decision whether to raise or call, with just calling probably being superior, and with fold being easily the worst play.