Party 15: Assign percentages to opponent's likely hands

[Robb]

Party 15

A decent to good player capable of being somewhat tricky open raises in CO. I 3 bet in the SB with something. BB folds. CO probably has similar notes on me. He calls.

Flop: 10 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]: I bet he calls.
Turn: Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] I bet he raises.

Assign percentages to my opponent's likely hands based on the given information.

Regards,
Jamie

[TStoneMBD]

my guess to possible holdings in order of likelyhood: Adx, QK, QJ, QT, AQ, TT-88, 33-44, A3s, A4s, AT,. If he has a small pp under tens than there is probably a diamond draw with it.

I dont even play PP 15 btw so I dont understand the dynamics of the game as others here would. I'm just guessing for the benefit of my own learning.

[Robb]

Hi TS,

[ QUOTE ]
my guess to possible holdings in order of likelyhood: Adx, QK, QJ, QT, AQ, TT-88, 33-44, A3s, A4s, AT,. If he has a small pp under tens than there is probably a diamond draw with it.

[/ QUOTE ]
With a slightly tricky opponent and the board showing cards in the playing zone plus 3 to a flush I think you can narrow it a specific subset but that subset is kinda big.

The list you mentioned has got to be pretty close. As far as their likelihood I would not place Adx as my first guess because most decent opponents know a steal is less likely to work since the board could have hit my hand too. And they really don't want to get 3 bet with that hand. Therefore they probably just call the turn. But that's really what I'm perplexed about: how likely is Axd or 10dx or pair<10 with a diamond?

I think I may have misplayed my hand but I'm not sure where. I had AsJs. My opponent raised me on the turn and I called with no plan for the river, which I rarely do. Very very bad. As far as how I played it...
Recap:
CO open raises I 3 bet in SB with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. BB folds.
Flop: 10 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] : I bet he calls.
Turn: Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] I bet he raises, I called.
River: a small diamond came, I bet out with ace-high nothing and he folded.

Independent of the results, I would estimate his likely hands on average as:
QKd/QK
10+Ad/Kd/Jd
Straight draw usually with diamond
Axd
Pair<10 with a diamond
Set of 10's/3's/4's or KK/AA

Creating an ordered list seemed to work better than percentages since the list was kind of long.

Any comments on how I played the hand. Again I think I may have misplayed it but not sure where.

Regards,
Jamie

[1800GAMBLER]

Putting Adx first is absurd, he's a good player put yourself in his position, Adx x>9 should be folded on the flop. AdJx should be too but i doubt this player will, so for him to have Adx it's AdQx AdJx.

Aqo is what i think is most likely, 2nd to QK.

[Robb]

I meant to include AQ in my first category.

It's different than KQ however when determining my course of action.