Top set against flush draw

[lastchance]

A set here is like having a flush draw when you're up against the Made flush, and you have a total lock when they don't. You have too much equity to give up. Never fold top set, no matter how bad the board is.

[Mikey2k4]

OK, so it's all about the equity, huh?

On one hand, there is a good likelihood that I have the best hand. (Is there a program that will calculate what hole cards can beat which ones, given a flop?) I have top set, and I am only losing to a made flush.

And even if I am losing to a made flush, I have enough outs to call. OK, I think I've got it. Thanks for all the help, guys.

[lorinda]

And even if I am losing to a made flush, I have enough outs to call. OK, I think I've got it. Thanks for all the help, guys.

Just to clarify.

If you KNOW for sure you are losing to a made flush, the call is pretty poor in a tourney, but the more than small doubt makes it a call.

Lori

[nsj]

I think you have to keep in mind that you smooth called his pre-flop raise.

Not what I'd do, but a play that made your hand deceptive. He might have put you on a decent ace, a medium pocket pair, etc....

More often than not, I find a re-raise all-in on a scary flush board to mean that the re-raiser is equally scared of the board. With top set, this is an easy call. Even if he does have QcAc (and is playing it poorly), you have enough outs with two cards to come...

[Zinzan]

[ QUOTE ]
Easiest call in the world? Risking my tournament life when the guy may have a made hand? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Why is it so easy to call?

[/ QUOTE ]

While I would certainly call, I don't think it's the "easiest call in the world."

I think his preflop bet indicates he has a decent hand.* A pocket pair, or AK, AQ, or something similar. The all-in raise would make me think he's afraid of a draw, but has some kind of made hand. My guess would have been a set of Jacks or Eights. Or maybe pocket Aces (esp. if he had the Ac). If he had the nuts flush, an all-in makes no sense.

Of course, all-in with a pair of Queens makes no sense, either, esp. without the Qc.

-Z

*The more I think about it, I guess I'm not sure what he would raise with preflop. First hand of the tournament, but I just noticed it was a minimum raise, and he could have been attempting to steal. But the rest of the analysis stands. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[SmileyEH]

You have top set and are getting 2-1 from the pot. Your opp. has to have a flush like 85% of the time for a fold to be correct. A read like that is impossible.

-SmileyEH

[Mikey2k4]

Wow - the last three responses have been great. In fact, all of the responses have been helpful. I now am more confident of my call, although now I'm wondering why it took me so damn long to make the call. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Thanks, everybody. (Yeah, as I was thinking about it, an all-in on that board SHOULD mean that he's trying to scare me out. With top set, it then becomes an easy call.)