Top set against flush draw

[Mikey2k4]

This is the FIRST HAND of a home game, so there's only five of us. We all know each other pretty well. Everyone starts out with t3600. 10 ante, 50/100 blinds

UTG folds.
CO raises 200 (to 300).
Button folds.
Hero (in SB) looks at K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Hero calls.
<font color="green">Thinking of slowplaying here. Should I reraise? It may give away my hand.</font>
BB folds.

Pot is now t750.

Flop comes out:
8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

<font color="green"> OK, I flopped top set. But oh look - flush on the board. Hmmmm.... </font>

Hero bets 1000 to see what CO's got. Does he have the flush?

CO raises all-in (3290).

Hero ????

Analysis:
The pot is now 4640. It's going to cost me 2290 to call, making it right at 2:1. I can easily survive the next few rounds if I fold, but I have a chance to bust this guy out and I have top freaking set. Even if he has the nut flush (or any flush - I'm putting him on the nut flush or possibly second-nut flush because why would you push with anything less?), I still have seven outs (1 K, 3 J's, 3 8's).

Comments? Results to follow.

[Mikey2k4]

I wind up calling.

CO shows queens, neither of which is a club. He doesn't spike his queen, so I win and take him out.


Even though I won, I am liking my call less and less the more I think about it. I was not getting pot odds to call (unless I missed some outs) a flush. He could easily have nut flush or even any flush. I also could easily have walked away to fight another day.

However, why would he push if he had the nuts? If I have a flush, wouldn't it be better to just call? If the board pairs, he's in some trouble, but it might be worth a gamble. By him pushing, he doesn't want me in the pot for whatever reason (He didn't put me on a set or the flush. He thought I had A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and was going for the semi-bluff.)

This is such a confusing game!

[Bremen]

You did actually miss some outs, as on the river you'll have 10 outs instead of 7. Anyway, against a flush you're 2:1. As for the call, at low limits I find bets like that are more often trying to protect hands against someone drawing out, rather than made flushes.

[DyessMan89]

You had to call. Pot odds are nice, and I dont think he has the flush ... and you have outs even if he does. I would rarley lay this down.

[SmileyEH]

easiest call in the world.

-SmileyEH

[lorinda]

easiest call in the world.

Unless there are four equal prizes [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

But yes, I agree assuming a more normal structure and assuming I watched the shuffle.

Lori

[stupidsucker]

[ QUOTE ]
He doesn't spike his queen, so I win and take him out.


[/ QUOTE ]

Wouldnt he have needed runner runner to win?

anyways, Its an easy call.

As for preflop and "giving away your hand"... Raise and give it away, you will be doing yourself a favor.

[ReDeYES88]

Result
http://twodimes.net/h/?z=559420
pokenum -h ks kd - ac 2c -- 8c jc kc
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Kc Jc 8c
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ks Kd 341 34.44 649 65.56 0 0.00 0.344
Ac 2c 649 65.56 341 34.44 0 0.00 0.656

the same results for any two club holding, unless the straight flush is possible

[Mikey2k4]

Easiest call in the world? Risking my tournament life when the guy may have a made hand? (If I had made a royal on the flop, that'd be the easiest call in the world.)

I must be underestimating my outs and pot odds. It took me a few minutes to make this "easy call". [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Why is it so easy to call?

[lorinda]

Why is it so easy to call?

It does depend on the pay structure, but basically it is so easy to call because you have 8.5 outs if you are wrong and you probably aren't wrong anyway.

Lori