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#1
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any suggestions would be helpfull
my numbers yankees will win 45% boston will win 55% line yankees +150 boston -165 yankees EV 150(.45) - 100(.55) = $12.50 per $100 risked boston EV 100(.55) - 165(.45) = -$19.25 per $165 risked it looks to me the only play with a positive EV is yankees.any ideas on this?? |
#2
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I agree with your analysis. Another way to think about it is with a moneyline of +150 the implied winning percentage is 40%, and a moneyline of -165 implies a 62% winning percentage. So if you believe the Yankees have a 45% chance of winning then you should be +EV.
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