Should I give playing $100NL?

[Sponger15SB]

In my first 4,135 hands I was up $827
In my last 7,026 hands I'm down $1571
(biggest swing ever?)

So my total is down $744 in 11,161 hands
(I still have $3000 bankroll, though)

I'm trying to look at my stats between the 27K hands I have at $50NL (4.55BB/100 and +$2,479) and the 11K I have at $100NL and I can't tell if its just that I can't beat the $100NL or that I'm just going through one hellish run.

First off, my VPIP's are

$100 10.45
$50 11.25

Nothing too threatening there, the $100 SF% under PT summary tab is 1.3% tighter, so I guess there are more raising going on and I am playing slightly tighter.

So obviously I play insanely tight, and a good portion of my winnings comes from flopping sets and playing high pocket pairs, so I looked at all those, and the numbers look incredibly different.

http://sponger15sb.bravehost.com/Pairs.JPG
(the link should not work, you need to copy & paste address)

Could this be the source of my problems, that I am just not getting enough action on the hands that I would normally win big pots with at the $50 because the players are too smart for that?

Looking at a couple of individual hands, I'm actually losing money with JJ over 42 hands (down .57 BB/hand), while I'm up .73 BB/hand in $50NL. Also, QQ is .3BB/hand in $100 vs 2.76bb/hand in $50.

Here are the "more detail" stats comparison as well

http://sponger15sb.bravehost.com/MoreStats.JPG
(the link should not work, you need to copy & paste address)


Any advice or comparison to your stats would be greatly appreciated. However, I am not about to start getting crazy and posting 30 individual hands.

I just don't really know whether I'm good enough to beat the $100NL, things that worked out while 8-tabling $50NL seem to be getting seen right through at this higher level..... OR am I just experiencing a downswing of biblical porportions and I just need to get back to playing right away.

[Sponger15SB]

I meant to say...

"Should I give up playing $100NL"

in the title of my post.


Also for those who saw me at the 2+2 game the other day... that is obviously not at all how I play.... I bet my PFR in that game was higher than my usual VPIP.

[gergery]

Hey Sponger,

I just moved up last week from the $NL50 to the $NL100 and am also struggling. I had beat the $NL25 for 10BB/100 playing 2 tables shorthanded, so moved up to the $NL50 and also beat that for 10BB/100 over 7k hands so moved up to the $NL100. I’m down.

I feel the difference between the 25 to 50 was small, but the 50 to the 100 was several steps different. I’ve been reviewing pokertracker data on VPIP, etc., and definitely see a significantly larger % of players as tight aggressive. And the ones that aren’t are the loose, aggressive types but they play the flop well. There are of course still the fish, but they are fewer of them, and they’re more aggro so variance is higher.

So I’d say,
1. you may not be able to multi-table that many tables. Maybe back to the basics of fewer tables for a bit to adjust to the new level.
2. You could just be experiencing some negative variance. I’ve found that I get some luck/bad luck from my own cards and/or suckouts, but more of the luck that generates $ relates to my opponents cards relative to mine (i.e I steal and get lucky when they have nothing, I flop a flush and they get a set). So its hard to tell how lucky/unlucky you really have been over a period of time, even looking at how often you’ve been dealt AA or how many bad beats you’ve taken.
3. The other times I’ve experienced significant losses at poker have come when making big shifts – trying the new 3-table multis, moving up in SNG buyings, etc. If you haven’t shifted levels in awhile you may be forgetting the size of the adjustment to make.
4. You have good posts on 2+2 and are a thinking player. It seems clear that you can beat the $NL100 game over the long run.

Nice playing with you the other night in the 2+2 game,

--Greg

[LethalRose]

Im currently playing 25 NL Cash at party..and i play basically the same as you described. however with a PFR of 27.13 I think your raising a little too much..Mine is 9.3 and I raise only with premium hands. I dont even chase sets unless i hit on the flop.

youd have to post some hands and reflect on why you lost the hand..was it a bad beat or should you have seen it coming etc..the 100 NL games are where the serious players play..(I Watch them)

i dont think you should give up..just tighten up a bit or move down a level for a while.

[Jonny]

To be honest, party has become rockish lately. Nobody pays off at NL100 or higher. Paradise and stars are literally 10x as profitable for me. This may be because of the 100BB buyin. I hate party. I'm only up 1K there in about 10K hands. All the sharks are there now, especially with teh new data mining PT offers. I may be moving to Prima soon, along with paradise and stars. Mabye UB as well. I would simply recommend changing sites, as the games are much softer.

[pdubz]

For serious? I can't tell if this is a joke. Or if you just want less fishers in your part of the lake.

[Jonny]

I'm not joking. I find the 100BB buyin sites much easier for some reason. I can barely win on party, but I crush the other sites. No idea why though???

[BobboFitos]

[ QUOTE ]
To be honest, party has become rockish lately. Nobody pays off at NL100 or higher. Paradise and stars are literally 10x as profitable for me. This may be because of the 100BB buyin. I hate party. I'm only up 1K there in about 10K hands. All the sharks are there now, especially with teh new data mining PT offers. I may be moving to Prima soon, along with paradise and stars. Mabye UB as well. I would simply recommend changing sites, as the games are much softer.

[/ QUOTE ]

With complete confidence, having played around, although I play on Stars primarily, Stars and UB have the toughest players. (Why oh why do I play stars? One friend of mine is making much more on Party yet is not the player I am)
I'm not sure why this is the case, (UB could be because potbet button and players utilizing it) but Party is still the easiest site. (Even if it IS getting harder-to call it rockish would be blasphemy)

[pdubz]

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

I guess I'll not worry about these things and just keep playing at my ATM -- I mean, Party.

[Under Control]

Heh sponger, you doubted my 50 NL results when I said the 100 game was tough. It really is a large jump. What I'm doing now is two tables of 50 to keep the money rolling in and 1 table of 100 to learn. Maybe you should adopt something similar?