How much +EV is needed?

Calpeman · #1 10-11-2004, 08:01 AM

I have a stack of 2600, the blinds are 300/150 no antes. Down to 350 players left top 110 places are paid, but prizes are very top loaded. (210x buy-in for 1st, 10x buy-in for 10th)

I am in mid position with AQ and can push all-in which I calculate has an +EV of about 250. Now if I think I am among the top 25% of the players is this a clear play or do I need more +EV to make this push.

Is there any general rule to how much +EV is needed to push all-in when you are down to about 10x BB. I really have no clue here so any help would be greatly appreciated.

fnord_too · #2 10-11-2004, 08:14 AM

I have no idea how you came up with +EV of 250, I would say it is more. At any rate, this is a clear push first in. If someone raises in front of you and you think you have any pre-flop folding equity, or if the raiser would call with a weaker hand like KQ or AJ, again it is a clear push.

With 9ish BB, you can be patient, but AQo is a good hand at this stage in the tourney, and your push should pick up the blinds most of the time. On the times it doesnt, you are probably close to even with the range of hands that will call you, maybe even ahead (against the 'average calling hand') depending on the particular players at the table.

If you are considering folding this if you would be first in, I don't know what better spot you are looking for. If you are asking whether to push or fold after a standard PFR ahead of you, that depends on the raiser, but unless he is very tight, I am usually pushing here. (I usually have a pretty solid image at this point in the tourney, so I usually get some respect on my reraises. And again, there are not many hands that dominate AQ.)

Superfluous Man · #3 10-11-2004, 10:39 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Is there any general rule to how much +EV is needed to push all-in when you are down to about 10x BB. I really have no clue here so any help would be greatly appreciated.

[/ QUOTE ]
When I'm down to less than 10x the BB, the general rule is that EV > 0 = push. Then again, I'm usually willing to gamble fit up at any time in a tournament if I feel that I have an edge.

DyessMan89 · #4 10-11-2004, 12:18 PM

How did you get 250 for your +EV?

fnurt · #5 10-11-2004, 01:39 PM

If you are among the top 25% of players, you should know this answer. I'm not trying to be insulting, I don't know you or anything, but it seems everyone always starts with the assumption that they are one of the best players. Concentrate on figuring out the right play, and worry about making minor adjustments based on your skill vs. the field later.

In this case, it's hard for me to believe that you are supposed to do anything other than open-raise with AQ from MP.

Calpeman · #6 10-11-2004, 05:53 PM

I got to this EV figure, by a rather complex calculation during a very boring class today. I determined which hands I could be called with and the probabilites that the holder of the hand would really call me. Calculating the probability that no one held any of these hands and I would steal the blinds, and calculating the chances of winning if called by any of these hands. Of course the 250 would not be an exact number, but I think it would be rather close.

Calpeman · #7 10-11-2004, 06:03 PM

"Quote:
If you are among the top 25% of players, you should know this answer. I'm not trying to be insulting, I don't know you or anything, but it seems everyone always starts with the assumption that they are one of the best players"

I know, I really shouldn`t have written that. I have no faith in anyone making such claims myself. Afterall 90% of all car drivers believe they are among th top 50% [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] Anyways, the reason I put it in my post was that I thought it might matter (like Phil Hellmuth at least thinks it is +EV to lay down kings... you get my point.)

The point of my post was really not that specific play, which I know was correct and would do again if I got the chance. (I lost as the big blind held QQ, and was kind of upset because it was a tourny with a much higher prize pool than what I usually play). Anyways the point was to get a discussion about what EV you would need to put your whole stack at risk at that point in a tourny. I imagine in some situation you would even take -EV situations.

MicroBob · #8 10-11-2004, 08:40 PM

you have less than 10x the BB.
I am going to guess that you are somewhere around 200th place of the 350 players remaining with such a stack so that would make it a raising situation to be sure.
Even if you were somewhere around 90th place and had a decent shot to hang on past the bubble I would still push as there are many many players to go before you are down 110 players left.

You have less than 10x the BB so I really don't know what you would be waiting for here. This is especially true if the blinds are moving up rapidly (are you about to jump to 300/600 in 3 minutes??). But you should be making plays here even if the blinds are extremely gradual imo.

I don't think your PF EV calculations are doing you a whole lot of help here.