Going Pro: Validation vs. Self-Validation

[freeradical]

Occasionally, there is an earnest plea on this or other boards for advice concerning the poster's prospects for going pro.

I would like to suggest that in most* cases this need for validation suggests its own answer: "No. You should not."

The reason this comes to mind is that I have been gathering information for some months now in preparation for taking my own resume before the high committee. The test is incomplete, but so far the results suggest that continuing employment is not only unneccessary, but could even be costing me money.

As I say, the time of self examination is not yet complete. But should the current patterns hold, my publically asking for career advice on the strength of these numbers could only be one of two things: a baldfaced attempt at showing off in front of people who win 5 times what I do, or a genuine lack of personal fortitude. Either way, the question is moot. I know what I make at work, I know what I make at cards, and I certainly know how to work out a greater-than/less-than problem.

It would be great to hear from some of you pros as to what role validation played in your decision, for I suspect there are not many among you who live life based upon the recommendations of others.

* i lean towards "all" here rather than "most", but surely no rule is without exception.

[garyc8]

A recent poster asked for help determining the validity of his results. He clearly did not know how much of a sampling is needed to be confident that his results were reliable.
If one simply does not know the equations needed to estimate one's win-rate reliability, I think this is a legitimate reason to ask for help/advice from others.

[MrDetroit]

Glad to see that you know it all, and are in now way seeking any validation....... Can't wait till you quit your job, "go pro", and hit a cold streak. Then, and only then we'll see how pompus your posts are.

-MD

[Al Schoonmaker]

You should certainly know that short term numbers have little value.
If you look at the longer term, the picture is EXTREMELY grim. How many older professionals have anything resembling financial security?
How many former high stakes players now play for trivial stakes to survive?
How many of them were financially crippled by an illness that would be covered by almost any normal employer's benefit programs?
Don't think just of your earn per hour. Look at the longer term.
Regards,
Al

[BeerMoney]

Nice Post, Doc. Seriously, you legitimately could have changed someone's life by taking a few minutes out to share some knowledge.

[freeradical]

Yes Al, absolutely. Anyone considering taking on such a financially risky line of work has a responsibility to his or herself (and loved ones) to calculate all the angles, especially the costs of health insurance. Clarifying this rather than venturing into chest-pounding might have kept the thread more on target (as well as leaving us short an disappointingly unimpressive troll.) One great thing about these forums is exactly this, the opportunity to hear directly from poker professionals just what the trials and tribulations of the life can be. Absolutely essential to consider this, and consider it with a scathing degree of self-honesty.

Kevin too makes a valid point. There is plenty of good and useful advice out there concerning sample reliability, and this is an important part of making a risky career decision based on cold hard numbers. Glad these forums are here, for I have read such posts and profited by them.

But what I meant to focus on (and instead started going "me me me") is more the need for validation and what it spells for the future of the prospective casino-dwelling unemployed bum when things aren't running quite so flush.

If one were to allow the encouragement of friends, family, other poker players, or even the neighbor's cat to affect this decision, it seems to me there is a great danger that down the road this person may be more likely to buckle under the pressures once all these well-wishers are nowhere to be found.

As for learning the realities of the trade, yes - one would be actively practicing tomfoolery not to listen to the advice of others. As for trying to determine valid objective means for making such a decision, yes - one had best take a good honest look at probability, and listen well to those who know what they are talking about.

But as for the decision as to whether one has the right stuff? It seems a little dangerous to listen too much to others there. Either one knows one can, or one most likely can't - and if I'm wrong on this, I'm just flat wrong on it.

[freeradical]

Let me also clarify a ridiculosity I noticed in my original post. I seem to be convinced here that there are only two motivations for sharing statistics: arrogance and insecurity. I will attempt to rectify this, as well as dish out trollery worthy of the oversight:

NOT true, freeradical, you typical self-assured noob. Take your ironic attempt at talking your way into self-validation and go back to the dev psych classes you were too lazy to finish!

You see, there is a third reason for sharing one's data - a selfless desire to help the community at large. Folks can always profit from studying, admiring, perhaps even mocking the travails of another. Have you not seen and learned from many such a post? I THOUGHT SO!

But you wouldn't have thought of that would you, especially not in the middle of such a shamefully self-serving post. Disgusting.

(unfortunately, to get flamed proper you sometimes have to do it yourself.)

[img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Also, since I did make the mistake of going into a tirade about myself and how clever my methods of analysis are, I will explain the nature of my self-test - educative feedback is of course welcomed.

Over an n-month period, I would like to see my salary get blown out of the water (or at least mildly surpassed) by poker earnings. Not only this - but I require each individual month to project to an annual income that I would find comfortable.

I had considered 6 months an adequate "n" in the beginning, but as I've thought it through more thoroughly, I will certainly want to exceed that - a full year, perhaps? When the time comes, I trust myself to know. (And it will of course have a lot to do with having n+x months of expenses squirreled away, separate from the regulation 300 big bets.)

If I can accomplish this (adjusting, as Al would certainly suggest, for my job's adequate but unimpressive benefits package) then I cannot imagine what I would have left to ask of others as to whether such a career move is plausible.

[insert Dennis Miller style disclaimer, blah blah blah]

As for Big Bets an hour as a measure, no thanks. I may want to work 5 hours one week, 100 the next, and I am not about to assume that it will always be one, the other, or any random number of hours in between. I'm much more interested in my prospects over the next year than the next hour.

For anyone still reading, thanks for your tolerance. Hopefully this thread is salvagable and its premise non-ridiculous.

[freeradical]

And come to think of it, MD's post here is helpful as well. Poker needs less arrogance and more reality checks. The best thing that can happen to somebody on a high horse is to feel the cold hard ground rising swiftly to meet his arse.

As for cold streaks, your deep and sincere concern is appreciated, but it seems you're preaching to the choir.

[Blarg]

Poker is still quite negatively regarded when played as a mere trivial pasttime in America, especially among, say, anyone over 30. Regarded as a career choice, it is probably generally thought of as somewhere between addiction, nightmare, and massive denial and self-delusion.

Therefore I don't think many pros at all had validation from others being a necessary factor in their choice to go pro. Even those who admire their poker income probably look askance at them often enough that their validation is notably tempered and questionable.

My guess is most people who play as pros for any length of time do it despite rare validation from anyone before they got their start and lots of lack of validation once they've made their deicision.

It's not the kind of occupation for people who seek out and need a lot of validation from others. Professional poker seems more a profession in which successful players must learn to be unperturbed about not getting a lot of validation for their skill, intelligence, and work ethic from others, as well as able to handle a lot of actual negative feedback about how they make their living.

[Al Schoonmaker]

I hope I have dissuaded some people from trying to make it as a pro.
Las Vegas has seen thousands of them come here with high hopes and go home broke.Some friends of mine were trying to make a list of all the middle limit pros who were working here when they arrived over a decade ago and are still making a living at poker.
They came up with ONE name.
That's pretty scary.
Regards,
Al