Interesting No Limit Question

[Ed Miller]

We have a 1500 chip pot and we're going to fold to a 200 chip bet on the river(which would make the pot 1700 when you factor in his 200)? Is our read really that strong that we'd pass up 8.5-1 odds? While you might really think that your opponent is on a flush draw, unless you have some amazing tell on him, I don't think you'd ever be that sure that you should pass up those odds with the 2nd best hand.

You are confusing two completely seperate decisions. All I am saying is that this strategy is clearly profitable:

Call on the turn and fold on the river whenever you no longer have the nuts.

If that strategy is profitable, FOLDING ON FOURTH STREET CANNOT BE CORRECT! No "reads" or decision-making are required. Call on the turn, fold without the nuts on the river. Folding simply MUST be wrong if that strategy is profitable. Is that clear?

Any "reads" or bet-calling you do on the river (if you play correctly) can only IMPROVE upon this simple strategy of folding without the nuts.

[Squirrel]

I am now realizing this.

I goofed. Calling is certainly better than folding.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
I am now realizing this.

I goofed. Calling is certainly better than folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep. The only thing that would make it worse would be if the guy with the flush draw also had the Jd, and the bet was large enough that you didn't make enough when the flush draw raises you out. However, the pot is 900, so half pot (when you split with the initial bettor) is more than enough to make it worth the risk of losing the 200 when you call.

Does anyone agree with my earlier post that suggests that the guy with the flush draw has the J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 1/3 of the time? If not, how often do you think he has it and how did you get that number?

[Vince Lepore]

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Even with a str8 the nut flush draw, I think this is a horrible bet.

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Against one opponent it might be a bad bet but against two opponents, both good players, with a sraight and nut flush draw it might be a perfect bet. The pot is only 900, you have the nuts with a redraw, one of your opponents figures to have a straight also. Why not induce one or both opponrents to make a mistake by raising or call drawing dead?

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What do you do - out of position - if you get called and the board pairs on the river?

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Check or bet another small amount.

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I just can't believe that someone with nut str8 and a flush draw of any kind won't bet more than 200 chips.

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What r u afraid of? Someone with 2 pair that calls is makng a mistake. They are getting 5 1/2 to 1. What are the odds of filling up two pair? Someone with a set is getting the right price sure but they may make the mistake of raising the turn. Into two players, $200, is a good bet for this situation with the nuts and redraw [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

Vince

[aces961]

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[ QUOTE ]
I am now realizing this.

I goofed. Calling is certainly better than folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yep. The only thing that would make it worse would be if the guy with the flush draw also had the Jd, and the bet was large enough that you didn't make enough when the flush draw raises you out. However, the pot is 900, so half pot (when you split with the initial bettor) is more than enough to make it worth the risk of losing the 200 when you call.

Does anyone agree with my earlier post that suggests that the guy with the flush draw has the J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 1/3 of the time? If not, how often do you think he has it and how did you get that number?

[/ QUOTE ]

I really don't think we can really come up with any accurate number for the percent of the time he has the jack of diamonds. For all we know the three people in the hand were the two blinds and the button, so in this case the button or the flush draw may have raised preflop with just about any hand.

I used somewhere that the probability he had the jack was at least 2/11( this number was gotten since there are 11 diamonds we having seen and he has 2 of them, so if he had all diamonds equally he'd have the jack 2/11 times), so my assumption was the jack is going to not be less likely than an average diamond to be in his hand. I was just using the 2/11 to find a maximum ev for a course of action so the ev would just be lowered if the portion was over 2/11.

[Shaky]

I appreciate the thoughtful response. I see your point about the betting strategy being different being different with two opponents. I think that where we differ is that you are giving the bettor a lot more credit for having a good read than I do.

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The pot is only 900, you have the nuts with a redraw, one of your opponents figures to have a straight also.

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From the perspective of the bettor, why does one of your opponents figure to have a str8 also? I know that there is only one card required for a str8, so it's certainly a possibility, but do you really "figure" that someone has that hand? When I've just made a gut shot str8 draw, I always know that someone else might have it too, but it's not necessarily something that I count on.

If someone gave you this problem from the perspective of the bettor who just made the nut str8 with a nut flush draw, would you really put your opponents on those hands? Wouldn't you be just as likely to think that someone has trips? Against trips, the bet of 200 with the str8 is a bit dubious, isn't it?

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What do you do - out of position - if you get called and the board pairs on the river?

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Check or bet another small amount.

[/ QUOTE ]
Would you really put more chips into the pot if the board pairs? Given the choice between (A) Betting, (B) Checking, and (C) Mucking my cards so that I can get to the bathroom before I vomit, I would be more likely to pick B or C before putting another chip into the pot. I just don't think that the bettor can have that good of a read on the other hands.

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Someone with 2 pair that calls is makng a mistake. They are getting 5 1/2 to 1. What are the odds of filling up two pair?

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If you really believe that the bettor would put more chips into the pot if the board pairs, a hand with two pairs may be getting implied pot odds to call the initial bet of 200. Even if the board pairs and it doesn't give the other players a full house, there's a pretty good chance that a small bet is going to invite a bluff raise.

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Someone with a set is getting the right price sure but they may make the mistake of raising the turn.

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I actually think you're just joshing me here, because I just can't believe that a player is going to raise with trips when there is a four card str8 on the board. Weren't we just giving credence to folding the nut str8 on the turn to a 200 chip bet? Now we're supposed to believe that trips are going to raise against a highly likely nut hand?

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Into two players, $200, is a good bet for this situation with the nuts and redraw [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

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I think that you're right if you can put the other two players on a str8 and a lesser flush draw, but I can't see where the bettor has this info. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Shaky

[durron597]

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I really don't think we can really come up with any accurate number for the percent of the time he has the jack of diamonds. For all we know the three people in the hand were the two blinds and the button, so in this case the button or the flush draw may have raised preflop with just about any hand.


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Since the guy with the flush draw has position on both of you, we know he is not in the blinds, which means he voluntarily put $ in the pot. I took that to mean that (in an earlier post that no one replied to

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Let's assume the guy with the flush draw will see a flop with any suited connector down to 65, and any suited 1-gapper down to 64, and any suited ace down to A6. Let's also assume that the K and the Q are diamonds. There are thus 6 ways to have a suited ace, and 6 ways to have a suited connector, and 6 ways to have a 1-gapper. Thus 3/18 ways for him to have the Jd.


[/ QUOTE ]

That was how I got my 1/3 number for that post.

[aces961]

I was considering the case where the flush draw was on the button. Now suppose the diamonds on board were something like the q and t. If the pot is folded to you on the button preflop how low do your raising standards go. I would certainly start to raise with hands like k9, k8, k7 suited at that point, as well as any suited ace.

[MrFeelNothin]

Call. Folding might be slightly incorrect but raising is a huge mistake as explained by Squirrel et al. Only wish I had seen this post yesterday to participate in the argument. Why the WPT forum? [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[kelvin474]

raise it big, then push if the board paris the river?