Interesting No Limit Question

[jwvdcw]

[ QUOTE ]
You havent' included a couple of scenarions that while ulikely are entirely possible.

1)J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is held by the flush draw behind you, and he raises a large ammount that is not all-in. What bet size do you call, and when do you fold?

2) A flush draw also could contain 2 pair, and the river pairs the board.

You seem to assume that if you call and the river either makes a flush or pairs the board, you will have no decisions on the river. This isn't the case.

[/ QUOTE ]

Squirrel, I still maintain that I THINK I can show why a minimum raise would be best, but I'm going to wait for Slansky to post his answer first. I believe that Slansky will agree with you and say to call.

[Squirrel]

I'm still saying FOLD.

I just said that calling wouldn't surprise me. I think calling leads to more complexities that people are bothering to figure into their calculations.

[daryn]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In risposta di:</font><hr />
</font><blockquote><font class="small">In risposta di:</font><hr />
You havent' included a couple of scenarions that while ulikely are entirely possible.

1)J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is held by the flush draw behind you, and he raises a large ammount that is not all-in. What bet size do you call, and when do you fold?

2) A flush draw also could contain 2 pair, and the river pairs the board.

You seem to assume that if you call and the river either makes a flush or pairs the board, you will have no decisions on the river. This isn't the case.

[/ QUOTE ]

Squirrel, I still maintain that I THINK I can show why a minimum raise would be best, but I'm going to wait for Slansky to post his answer first. I believe that Slansky will agree with you and say to call.

[/ QUOTE ]


wait.. you think you can show that raising is best, but you think sklansky will say it's correct to call. i don't get it. are you saying that you think sklansky is wrong?

[garyc8]

Even if you believe you must fold to a large bet if the river pairs a call still yields a much higher exp. than the raise.

The flush draw will not likely re-raise two obvious straights unless he is freerolling. So if he raises too much to for you to call a freeroller, you can safely fold.

[fnurt]

[ QUOTE ]
His chances are at least 1 in 3 that he has the Jd, since you have the Js.

I think it's highter than that.

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I still don't get how the chances can be higher than 1/3.

[Squirrel]

What about a small or moderate bet on the river assuming you no longer hold the nuts.

What bet is too large to call a "freeroller"? Notice that if he makes a raise that lays you the exact odds that you feel you are being freerolled, you must know take into effect the 200 call

Why is your hand an obvious straight? Wouldn't you call here with other hands as well?

[Squirrel]

1 in 3 is purely mathematical.

Higher than that is intuitive.

I find it odd that a "good player" would make a bet that is pricing "IN" the flush draw if he doesn't hold the J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].

This seems like a bet that is just begging to be raised by another straight.

[garyc8]

If the river is a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], and the bettor bets anything, you fold. If the apparent flush draw bets, you calculate the pots odds v. your certainty that he made a flush: probably a fold.

If the flush draw makes a big raise you must consider that he's freerolling.
First let's assume that you are certain (100%) that he's freerolling:
A. If the bettor folds, you must also fold to any raise over $3000: $1500 in pot pre-raise, 4 times you get $750 + 1 time you lose $3000 = $0.
B. If bettor calls you must fold to any raise over $2000:
4 times you get $500 + 1 time you lose $2000 = $0.

If you think there's a chance he's bluffing you must factor the chance you put on that into your equation. Please don't make me do the math.

What if my hand is not an obvious straight? If I put the other guy on a straight, and the flush draw is a good player, don't you think he figures at least one of us for the straight?

Yes, I would call the $200 bet with a set, but if the flush is up against a set and a straight, that just makes his life worse.

[Ed Miller]

So you're telling me that if a diamond falls, and both you and the first guy check, that your read is so strong that you'd fold to a small 300 chip bet into that much bigger pot? I think you might be forced to call that, in which case, you need to adjust your numbers.

This line of reasoning is erroneous for the same reason that the "What if they raise so little that you have to call?" line is wrong.

[daryn]

ed, what do you think of the problem? in other words what do you think is the answer and why?