Laying down Aces on the flop against a possible set

SixgunSam · #1 10-09-2004, 06:36 AM

This is a hand that happened to me in the $50 Stars tourney. I think that in this particular case, there was no way I could get away from this hand, however say I had twice as many chips as I did, could you make this fold?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t100 (9 handed)

MP3 (t1685)
Hero (t1942)
Button (t2315)
SB (t3355)
BB (t2160)
UTG (t6730)
UTG+1 (t930)
MP1 (t1205)
MP2 (t1630)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls t100, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 calls t100, Hero raises to t400, Button folds, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls t300, MP3 folds.

Flop: (t1050) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks.

Turn: (t1050) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets t500, UTG raises to t6330, Hero calls t1042 (All-In).

River: (t8922) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: t8922

Results in white below: 
UTG has 6c 6s (full house, sixes full of threes).
Hero has Ad Ah (full house, threes full of aces).
Outcome: UTG wins t8922. 

I checked the flop because I thought he would try to buy the pot on the turn and I could nail him for some more money. I wasn't worried about the flush because I had seen him semi-bluff flush draws on other hands, so I thought I would give him a card to improve his hand. I suppose the fact that an aggressive player checked twice should have sounded alarms.

Here is my logic on examining the hand. The player who won the pot, I had seen him limp from any position with pocket pairs and I had seen him check-raise once before after making a set. He was a very agressive player and semi-bluffed most draws. I believe this player would open raise any pocket pairs over TT and he would definitely re-raise me with KK or QQ, so I don't put him on an overpair to the flop. I had been playing very tight, so I think he gave my raise respect. I didnt think he could be on a flush draw because I believe he would have semi-bluffed the flop as he had done on other occasions. His check-raise could have been a bluff, he might have put me on AK and thought I was trying to buy the pot when the turn brought another low card, but that would have been pretty risky, so maybe a generous 30% chance he would make that play. I think there is at least a 50% chance that he has 66, 99, 33. Then about a 10% chance I misread him and he limped with something like TT-KK and another 10% chance that he is making that play with an underpair like 77.

Okay, here are my warning signs: aggressive player checks twice on a ragged flop, then check-raises all-in when I bet out on the turn. Say I had twice as much money as I had and could lay this hand down and still have t2000, would it be a good play or too weak? I mean, he would still have me covered so I would be risking my entire tournament with nothing more than a pair, even if it is the ultimate pair, but I think pocket aces are so dangerous because it's hard to lay them down when you are beaten. And for that matter, how about the play I made? Could anyone have justified laying down my hand and trying to continue with t1000? When I made the call, I felt like there was a very good chance my hand wasn't good, but not enough for me to lay down and give away half of my stack and leave myself nearly crippled. Any advice or comments would be apperciated.