help on everything

[mrbaseball]

I guess you didn't look at the websites the first responder gave?

Lets say Clemens is -230 and his opponent is +200. -230 is about 70%. 230+100=330. 230/330=69.6%. His opponent is getting +200. 200+100=300. 200/300=66.6%.

So if you figure Clemens will only win 60% of the time (opponent wins 40%) he is clearly overvalued making his opponent undervalued and worthy of a bet. You are getting +200 on a bet that should be valued at +150 (60% for Clemens, 40% for opponent).

You figure to lose one unit 6 out of 10 times (-6 units) but win 2 units 4 out of 10 times (+8 units) for a net gain of 2 units or .2 units per play. If you can do that hundreds and hundreds of times over the length of a season it starts to add up.

[eyekast]

[ QUOTE ]
So if you figure Clemens will only win 60% of the time (opponent wins 40%) he is clearly overvalued making his opponent undervalued and worthy of a bet. You are getting +200 on a bet that should be valued at +150 (60% for Clemens, 40% for opponent).

[/ QUOTE ]

this is where the problem is..how do you come up with the 60% of clemens winning as opposed to the 70% given from the line? do you just make a guess and say well i think clemens will win 60% or again is there a formula to figure this out?

[mrbaseball]

[ QUOTE ]
how do you come up with the 60%

[/ QUOTE ]

That's what I was talking about in my first response! That's the subjective part. That's the part YOU have to figure out. It's the answer to the question "how often does it happen?" which is what you have to learn how to answer.

Sorry but that's all i got?

[eyekast]

ok thanks i apprieciate all the help

[Lori]

Think of it more as an art form than a science.

Even though it is scientific, it takes experience and work to become a winning player, and that certain something that is hard to define called instinct.

Look at the tips from the good posters here (Im not one of them) and read their reasons.
If their reasons and ideas tie in with yours, then maybe you can have a bet.
If they are different to yours, then, unless you have a strong idea, maybe avoid that game.... there's plenty more games where that came from [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

Also if you feel strongly, construct a post with your reasons included.
The very constructing of the post should help tidy up in your mind what you are thinking, and the replies will either reinforce your ideas, or go against them, but will often be valuable either way.

Lori

[Lori]

with a value giving to this statistic i can begin to see how all the info together can build a line..but how?

You can try and invent your own scoring system for making a line, we all do it subconsciously to some degree anyway.

Imagine a new game is invented. We'll call it Loriball.

Because Houston has the only Loriball court in the world, all games are played there.

The first two results are :
Miami 22-33 Houston
Denver 22-44 Houston

One of the bookmakers is giving Dever +10 against Miami.

This seems like it must be about right, so we are losing 2% or so, but then scalfie comes back having learned the rules of the game and told us that all Loriball scores are factors of 11, so the +10 is irrelevant!

Now we have a good bet on Miami. We can see that they have a better Defence than Denver and we are effectively getting them with no downside.

Would this overcome a 2% edge against?

I think so personally, others may not. With no more information it's hard to tell.

Lori

[eyekast]

thanks for the help lori that makes sense.

now this is a stupid question which should show you how new i am to this. for instance if i take miami for +700 money line do they need to win outright regardless of the points or can i still win if they lose but cover the +13 points?

[mrbaseball]

[ QUOTE ]
construct a post with your reasons included

[/ QUOTE ]

This is excellent advice! Breaking down a game and spelling out all of your reasoning for the world to see will help provide you experience and confidence. Since you are going public so to speak you will want to make sure all your I's are dotted and T's crossed. It sorta forces you to try and make a convincing argument for why the line should be where you think it should be since you are opening up yourself to public scrutiny.

[craig r]

they need to win outright.

craig