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#321
10-08-2004, 08:47 PM
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Re: Interesting No Limit Question
On the turn you hold the nuts.
The nuts on the turn is not a very powerful hand unless it contains the J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. That's what I've been saying all along. 
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#322
10-08-2004, 08:53 PM
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Re: Interesting No Limit Question
[ QUOTE ]
The flush draw will fold, since we assume that when David says flush draw, he does not mean flush draw + made straight. [/ QUOTE ] Can we really assume that the flush draw can't also be a straight, and at the same time, that the straight can still be a flush draw?
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#323
10-08-2004, 09:02 PM
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Re: Interesting No Limit Question
I don't think I would have the heart to do it, but I believe the proper answer is FOLD.
At best you split, at worst you lose. If the flush draw comes along for the ride, you are getting back an extra .5 for every $1 you risk, and not getting paid off properly. That said, I likely go all-in. Flopping the nuts should be the worst leak in my game.
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#325
10-08-2004, 09:07 PM
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Re: E - Raise a lot (at least bet the flush out)
[ QUOTE ]
As I interpret the question, the reads are such that the bettor may have J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], but the flush draw behind you doesn't. I'm not really concerned with the bettor having J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]X[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] as the chance he has that and beats me with it is probably less than 2%. For those reasons I rule out both calling and folding. I can understand wanting to bet just enough to get the flush draw to call thinking the bettor will reraise and help you to then push the flush draw out. However, the flush draw may have the same read on the bettor as you and not go along, or the bettor may be afraid -you- have J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]X[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and just call. For those reasons I rule out both the minimum and moderate bets. Plus, I want to give the straight a chance to fold when he doesn't have J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. I think I'd go with E, then call even if he pushes back with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. [/ QUOTE ] Even if it is less than 2%, you're risking your entire stack of 10000 to win only 650 on that 98% chance.
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#326
10-08-2004, 09:08 PM
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Re: Interesting No Limit Question
[ QUOTE ]
On the turn you hold the nuts. The nuts on the turn is not a very powerful hand unless it contains the J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. That's what I've been saying all along. [/ QUOTE ] As I said, once I understood that we had the Js and not any random J, I've been coming more and more to your side. I still think folding is poor, and I still maintain that perhaps a minimum bet is not that bad, but I agree with you on most of what you're saying. Now where the hell is Slansky?
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#328
10-08-2004, 09:12 PM
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Re: Folding is dumb
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Folding is just ridiculous. [/ QUOTE ] Its not ridiculous at all. Although, I believe it is wrong, it is better than raising a lot. I still think a small raise is the best...I'll do the math a little later. [/ QUOTE ] By calling, you will win 550 chips 80% of the time and lose 200 chips 20% of the time. Folding under those circumstances is ridiculous.
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#329
10-08-2004, 09:17 PM
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Re: Interesting No Limit Question
Hypothetical Scenario :
You raise, and another player moves all in. He shows you the J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] but not the other card. You can now call getting potentially freerolled, or fold what is potentially an unbeatable hand, depending on whether or not his other card is a diamond. This quagmire you put yourself in by reopening the betting is why I HATE raising.
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#330
10-08-2004, 09:25 PM
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Re: Sticking to my guns
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] For my sanity and for the sanity of others, please confirm that you realize the Jd is only dangerous when the other hold card is also a diamond. [/ QUOTE ] What Squirrel is saying is that your opponent can push with the J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] knowing that no matter what you have, it will put maximum pressure on you. He knows that you cannot have a better hand than he does, and he knows that if you have the same hand, you will be afraid that he has a straight and a flush draw, which will put you in a very uncomfortable position of calling to split a small pot, while he may be freerolling for your entire stack. If he has the J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] you will have a hard time calling his push with anything. It is in this respect that the J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is dangerous even when your opponent does not have another diamond to go with it. [/ QUOTE ] Wait a minute...how does the first bettor know I don't have a higher diamond? Sklansky said there were 2 diamonds on an AKQ10 board, but he didn't say which of those cards were diamonds....even if the original bettor has the J of diamonds, what's precluding me (in his mind) from having the A, K, or Q of diamonds? Assuming the guy behind me is on a flush draw, wouldn't it be more likey that HE has the J of diamonds? He's a good player, right? What is he playing, if not 10Jd and still in it on the turn with this board? Jesus, this is confusing the hell out of me. I call in the hopes of a split pot and fold to a big raise from the flush draw and/or the other straight, or a diamond on the river.
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