help on everything

eyekast · #1 10-08-2004, 06:18 PM

ok guys i "hear" the like poker with skill you could make money betting on sporte.. how do you determine the ev on sports? where to go to learn this?

tonight i'd like to take the yankees but i don't understand moneylines or any of the other lines. can you help explain the lines and why this would or wouldn't be a good pick?

craig r · #2 10-08-2004, 06:34 PM

go to www.newbiesportsbetting.net or www.howtogamble.net

craig

eyekast · #3 10-08-2004, 06:38 PM

thanks that is exactly what i'm looking for..

eyekast · #4 10-08-2004, 08:54 PM

ok i understand what the lines mean but, i have a few questions

how do you know know whether its a good line or not? (i understand risk/total ticket = % you need to break even)

how can i calculate these odds and know what goes into making them?

what is a good book on this

basically any info anyone has i'll take. i want to get into sports betting but i want to learn everything i can before i start spending my poker bankroll.

mrbaseball · #5 10-08-2004, 10:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
how do you know know whether its a good line or not?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the age old question [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Unfortunately it is very subjective. I only speak of baseball because it's the only sport where I feel confident where I feel I can predict what the line actually should be.

I always like to ask and answer the question "how often does it happen?" If you can acurately do that you are on the way. In baseball I like to look at everything. Offense, defense, pitching (starter vs starter, starter vs lineup, bullpens) , specific matchup, records (home, away, night, day, turf etc.). Who's hot, who's not? How sharp have the starters been recently? How often does team A win? How often does team A win with pitcher A starting? How rested (and effective) is team A's bullpen? How effective is team As lineup against team Bs starter? etc etc etc.

These are the kind of the kind of questions you have to answer. Once you do you should have an idea of what you think the line should be. Then you have to have the leap of faith to believe yourself. In baseball, favorites (especially big name pitchers) are often overbet skewing the line. We saw a lot of this at the end of this season this year which brought some ridiculously good value to the table.

It takes time and experience to feel comfortable and I believe a passion for the game. Or at least a passion for the challenge presented. You also must understand there will be variance. You can easily cap out 10 games straight correctly and lose them all. Just like you can call down 10 straight flush draws in poker with proper odds and miss each time. But if you really are uncovering value, you will win in the long term as all of those small edges begin to multiply. Nobody can pick winners consistently. All you can do is consistently find value and let it accumulate.

How often does or will it happen? Answer that question and you've got it made!

eyekast · #6 10-08-2004, 10:20 PM

ok i see there is alot to look at..going with that is there a money value that applies to certain stats? an example would be say clemens is pitching at home where he has a winning record against a certain team..how does this translate into the money line? where do i go to learn how to make these line or to see if my lines are accurate? is there a book?

thanks for your help guys

mrbaseball · #7 10-08-2004, 10:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
an example would be say clemens is pitching at home where he has a winning record against a certain team..how does this translate into the money line?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well? After I look at all of that crap I determine Team A has an X% chance to win while Team B has a Y% chance to win. Then if the line is far enough away I bet on the undervalued team. If Clemens is a 70% favorite in the line and I determine he is only a 60% favorite, then I'm betting against him.

I don't know of any books? I'm self taught [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

eyekast · #8 10-08-2004, 10:33 PM

ok, but where does the winning percentages come from? do you just make a guess are is there a math formula to come up with that percentage. there has to be some sort of math or strategy to come up with the line..am i wrong??

Lori · #9 10-08-2004, 10:42 PM

If you need to bet 11 to win 10, you need to win 11 times out of 21 to break even. (win 11, lose 10).

11/21 = 52.38%

on a similar note, to win at -170, you have to bet 17 to win 10, so you need to win 17 times out of 27 (17 wins, 10 losses) which is 17/27 or 62.96%

Edit: Working out if you have a 55% or 50% chance of winning is what seperates the winners from the losers.
Trial + Error and keeping good records and doing good research are good starting points.

As you place more bets, you will get more of a feel for it.

Lori

eyekast · #10 10-08-2004, 10:56 PM

i know how to figure out the break even point(percentage of times i need to win to break even) but i'm talking about figuring out the percentages the team in question has to win by looking at all the stats..i know i keep going back to poker ,but for instance i know if i have a four flush on the flop i'll win the pot about 35% of the time. that;s not a guess, that can be figured out mathmaticaly. like i said i never handicapped anything before so i don't know but i'm kinda sure the big name handicappers have some sort of formula for coming up with those money lines..even though they probally have a huge amount of feel..another example is i heard someone say that the home team usually is awarded about 3 points..with a value giving to this statistic i can begin to see how all the info together can build a line..but how??/

i know i have alot of questions but that's because i really want to know how to handicap a game