Interesting No Limit Question

[Deorum]

[ QUOTE ]
If he does have JdXd, then there are 7 diamonds left in the deck with 45 cards unseen, for a 1-in-6.42 (or roughly 1:5) chance that he will hit his flush. Thus, the odds that he both has JdXd and hits his flush are 86:1 against.


[/ QUOTE ]

Since you assume that the guy behind you has two diamonds,
and the guy in front of you has two diamonds, and you have
A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], then there are 42 unknown cards left in
the deck when you take into consideration the four cards on
board, not 45.

[aces961]

Squirrel,
Have you considered anywhere that if you raise a decent sized amount that the flush draw will fold, and then if your opponent doesn't have the jack of diamonds he will fold because you could have it, or if he calls on the turn that you could take the whole pot if the flush does hit with a all in on the river. I'd do the math on say a raise to 800 or so here but I have a test in 2 hours, so I'll get around to it sometime tonight.

[West]

In the question posed by David, you are "almost sure" that the first guy has the straight, and the guy behind you a flush draw. So you're not worried if the board pairs. If a diamond hits, you check/fold.

[gmunny]

Call.

[Squirrel]

River diamond.

Checked to button who bets 1/5th of pot.

What's your new definition of almost?

[Martin Aigner]

Squirrel,

I perfectly see your point, which is well taken, BUT:

I think we agree that the 3rd player will muck his hand if he doesn´t get proper odds. So if I raise here and the first player doesn´t have the J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], which is likely, he will most probably only call. There is no reason for him to reraise, since he is just as afraid of me having the J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] suited as I´m afraid of him. I think we agree on this, right?

If so, this leaves a nice situation, where any [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] on the river might win me the whole pot, since he will check and most probably muck to a huge bet of me.

Your thoughts?

Martin Aigner

[knucklehead]

I think I get it now!??

So you call the turn, and the button???

If he calls the turn and a blank come on the river, you're guarenteed a chop so you push!

[Deorum]

Folding the nuts for a $200 bet is where I disagree with
Squirrel. If it gets raised big time before it gets back
to you again, then you can fold. But folding the nuts to a
$200 bet into a $900 pot because somebody might
be freerolling to a flush that has not even gotten there
yet, seems outrageous to me. In this case, even if the
first guy does have the terrifying J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], he will not
get to reraise if the guy behind you does not raise when
you call. By just calling, you get to see the river with
the nuts for cheap unless the guy behind you pumps it, and
if he does, you can be fairly certain he is freerolling,
since we are operating under the assumption that he has a
flush draw. Even if you call the $200 and get raised by the
guy behind you, forcing you to fold, all you have lost is
$200 from your 10k stack.

[Squirrel]

I've argued enough for one day.

I'm still convinced that it's a fold. One more thing - if you call and button calls this opens up a whole 'nother can of worms on the river depending on what falls, how "sure" you are of your reads, your opponents bluffing frequencies, etc.

Any play you make other than folding looks to be the start of "compounding"errors.

[knucklehead]

I'll make this call for $300 now, hell, before understanding these concepts I was willing to bet 2K on the turn...