Interesting No Limit Question

[Squirrel]

I will agree that this is much better than raising.

The problem is that the flush draw behind you can still raise if he has the Jd.

[37offsuit]

I just revised, my odds included the 200 to call so it's a little worse. If it's the player behind with say TJd and he now pushes, you can still fold.

[Squirrel]

It's only dangerous if he has another diamond in the sense that this is the only way you will be freerolled.

It's very dangerous if he has the Jd because it ASSURES him, that if you have a straight he can't lose the pot.

He can put MAXIMUM pressure on you with NO risk.

He holds the "freeroll nuts"

[Squirrel]

He doesn't need the flush draw to push. Just the Jd.

[Squirrel]

Finally, someone is getting it. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

Thanks.

[BarronVangorToth]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok Squirrel, here's the breakdown for you:

Basically, $700 makes the pot odds too great for the flush card to draw, 2.57:1 on the pot, with a 35:9 shot at best of winning the hand. So we'll guess he folds, and, assuming that your other opponent ALSO has a flush draw with his straight, he's 5:1 against hitting it (7 out of 42 cards beat you, the other 35 split). So, you're risking $700 to win $450(half of the original pot) with 5:1 odds on winning it, looks +EV to me.

[/ QUOTE ]


I would argue that this amounts makes it just perfect for him to draw, especially since, even if the flush hits, he knows he can extract some money from the straights -- say, another $500 or so apiece? Maybe more like $700? Who knows? Regardless, he'll get some additional action, and that may be enough to bring in that draw hand -- especially since not everyone calculates everything perfectly, so this is about the number where you will get him ... and if he calls, and the 1st guy goes all in for the full amount, THEN you get maximum (theoretical) value, I think.


Barron Vangor Toth
www.BarronVangorToth.com

[Eratosthenes]

Mr Straight bet just enough to give Mr Flushdraw correct pot odds to call. He is a "pretty good" player, so he has the same reads we do. He is not afraid of a flush draw. If he just had a straight he would have bet enough to push Mr Flushdraw out. Mr Straight has the Jd and another d.

Since it is 5:1 against a d falling on the river we do have pot odds to play for a chop. So calling is a good play if
you think Mr Flushdraw won't raise. Then fold to any bet if a d falls.

[Squirrel]

He specifically said you have AsJs.

This is VERY IMPORTANT.

[Deorum]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise the minimum $200 to try to keep the flush draw in.
He can't call a raise of $700.

Then villian #2 can reraise and you can push the flush draw out.

[/ QUOTE ]

And then what? Watch the first guy call and flip up
K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] so that you have an 80% chance to
split a 1300 pot and a 20% chance to lose your entire
10k stack? I was simply going to post my answer without
an explanation as David had asked, but since everyone else
seems to be already analyzing this thing, I guess I may as
well jump in too. And I guess my advice to him would be to
not ask people to refrain from posting an analysis until
later, because it seems that whenever he does, nobody pays
attention to it.

Anyway, here's my analysis on the hand. The post implies
that all three players involved in the hand are fairly good
players, so it is unlikely that you will be able to get
the guy behind you to make a big mistake with his flush
draw. So your dilemma is this: if the guy behind you has
nothing but a flush draw (and perhaps a full house draw as
well), he is not going to call a big raise. If you raise,
he will likely fold a pure draw, or reraise with a jack + a
flush draw. If you just call, he will call with a pure draw
but raise with a jack + a flush draw. So, either way, if
the guy behind you has a jack + a diamond draw, he is going
to raise. His raise may or may not be large enough to
justify a call. But if you raise, he will almost certainly
make a large raise to put you in a very bad spot.

The second reason to not raise is that it opens the door for
the first player to reraise. It is also possible that this
player has a jack + a diamond draw. If you raise and drive
out the player behind you, or even if he calls, the first
player may then reraise, which puts you in a bad spot. If
he has a straight plus a diamond draw, you are in big
trouble because you will be in a situation of either
splitting a small pot, or losing your whole stack. It
should be apparent that raising will only be harmful to you,
since it will not cause anyone else in the hand to make a
mistake, but will put a lot of pressure on you when you get
reraised. I cannot see folding the nuts here for such a
small bet, so I must conclude that calling is the best
option. If the guy behind you calls with his flush draw and
hits it, then so be it; you will lose half the pot (you were
not going to get the whole pot to begin with), but this is
far more favorable than putting yourself in position to win
half a small pot or lose your entire 10k stack, especially
when winning half the pot will not put you in much of a
different position as you would have been had you lost it.

Finally, I want to apologize to David for not keeping with
his wishes and analyzing the hand, but everyone was doing it
already anyway, so I figured I may as well jump in, seeing
as though the integrity had already been broken.

[ClonexxSA]

[ QUOTE ]
He doesn't need the flush draw to push. Just the Jd.

[/ QUOTE ]

How does he not need the flush draw to push? If he only has the Jd, then the best possible outcome for him is already on the board, a nut straight. Even if the river brings another diamond, if he isnt on the draw, he still only has a nut straight.

He would need the Jd AND another diamond, being on the flush draw, to be able to push here with the worst case scenario being a split pot and best case being his flush hits.

I still dont see how calling or folding here is a good option.