Bonus Whoring at Sportsbooks . . . can it be arbitraged to profit?

[BS Yee]

Okay, so I have a friend in Vegas who says he knows people who play the new player bonus deposit game with sportsbooks and have made tons of money. I did a cursory investigation and I don't see a viable financial model.

Here are my assumptions: You start with a $10,000 bankroll. You open three or four accounts at different sites and arbitrage the games. The sportsbook gives you a bonus put you have to rollover your deposit + bonus "X" amount of times to withdraw and you have to have kept the money in your account for at least 30 days.

Scenario 1 (Most Common): -110 bets, 20% signup bonus, 5X rollover

Start with $10,000 which is $12,000 after bonuses. 1/2 the stake is bet on one team and the other stake is bet on the opposing team. You want to have a large enough sample size so that one stake will be at very little risk of being wiped out.

Therefore on the first rollover, $6000 will win yielding $5,454.55 or $11,454.55. You split the stake and repeat.

Playing optimally, after rolling over the bets five times, you are left with $9,509.

I found one fairly reputable sportsbook that offers a 10% bonus, -105 lines, and only 3X rollover.

Under that scenario, it is technically feasible to take $10,000 and turn it into $10,238.

Comments?

[Homer]

I believe what you aren't taking into account is that sometimes it's possible to make vig-free bets. I'm not sure how often betting situations like that arise, but if you were patient enough, you could end up cashing out the entire bonus.

-- Homer

p.s. - Your post is too well written for the zoo. You may want to cross-post it in the sports betting forum.

[crazy canuck]

If you do sports arbitrage properly you can make a killing. I know becasue my brother is a pro arber and turned 20k into 150k in a year. However, if you use the publicly available subscription services it will not be that effective. So basically you either have to write your own code or hire someone. However, it takes a lot of work and organization and it is not nearly as simple as it sounds.

[Baulucky]

If you "lose" your $12,000 you don't need to roll it 5 times. They'll send you a "reload" bonus too!.

i.e.: lose it at one book (incl. the bonus), win it at a reputable book (incl. the bonus). Try to place the bets when the lines are skewed, so that you can "middle". Look for vig free bets at books. Use other friends IDs from different computers. Get refer-a-friend and/or affiliate deals going. It used to be very lucrative, but the amount of deadbeat books is incredibly high. Even reputable books will seize your funds if they catch on to what you are doing.

Be extra careful with book selection. It isn't as easy as it first looks, and requires tons of line searching, disguising and running around with fake IDs.

Learn to beat 3-6 poker, it's more profitable in the long run.

Good luck with it.