AKs Flops Flush Draw with Lots of Flop Action

[josh1122]

UTG +1 was very loose, and had been playing seemingly half of his hands. What does hero do in this spot though?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, CO folds, <font color="CC3333">Hero raises</font>, SB calls, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: (9 SB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="blue">(4 players)</font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">UTG raises</font>, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 3-bets</font>, Hero ?????

[Fnord]

SB &amp; UTG like their hands too. A weaker flush draw is an easy fold, and I almost want to fold here as well. Your A &amp; K outs look dead, the pot isn't huge yet and you might even be drawing dead or thin (with another flush draw out) to the flush (or more likely it won't even get there.)

Curious what those with more spine have to say about this...

[Illininate]

Okay, going to try and break this down:

SB's bet could be anything. Could be something like 33-99, could be A2, could be a T. He could even have a flopped full house and just be playing it straightforward - 22 and T2 are realistic (people love playing Brunson.) So, while he could have you drawing almost dead, I don't think it's likely.

UTG and UTG+1's aggression make it seems like they're scared of a flush draw, maybe with a pocket pair or a T. You're probably drawing live with your flush against them, as they'd almost definitely play a flopped full house slower. But with all this aggression, I think you can easily discount your A and K outs.

If one T is out there, you have 8 outs to your flush (because either their other card is a heart, or one of your flush cards will fill them up). If both T's are out, it's 7 outs to the flush.

With all this aggression, I think it's almost certain one T is out, and maybe half the time both T's are out. VERY rarely you'll be drawing nearly dead, and I think this rare occurrence is countered by the fact that you have other runner-runner outs in addition to your flush. So, we'll say you have 7.5 outs to your flush. If my math is right, that puts you at about 3.3:1 to have the winner by the river. You're getting 5:1 on your call right now. If it gets capped 4 ways, you get about 6.25:1 on this street. Despite the fact that there likely be extensive action on the turn, I think a call is in order here.


Any comments on my analysis?

[Chris Daddy Cool]

if the ten weren't paired i'd say this is an easy cap. but i don't mind just calling the 3-bet here, and you still may want to cap and check behind any non heart (even if an A or K falls) as a T is just too likely.

however if a blank falls of on the turn and it's multiple bets to you again like this you must consider a fullhouse.

[me454555]

Fold? hell no. You've got the nut flush and unless someones got 22 or TT you're drawing very much alive. Cap for value simple as that.

[maxpowers21]

It is too likely that someone has trips or stronger to cap for value, but you can certainly call for value here. Your pot equity is too high to fold. The only 2 hands you can reasonably peg UTG or UTG+1 on are TT or 22 that make this call unprofitable, thus you should call.

[maxpowers21]

Also note that if this flop isn't three-bet then you should raise or 3-bet this pot every time for value.