AKs ... anyone play this differently? MonteCarlo Satellite

[Instinct]

ETP satellite to MonteCarlo. Top 2 wins a $16,500 package.
153 started, 35 left. 8 handed
I have about 4500 in chips, blinds 100-200 with ante. Already over 3 hrs in as blinds go up ever 1/2 hr.
Both players have a tight image ... in fact the whole table has been tough.
I am in sb with AKs

ep (4800 in chips )raises 1200, lp ( 3700 in chips ) calls 1200.

I have AKs , think for a bit, and go all in.

My read on ep raiser ... had biggish pocket pair ( 10's - Q's ), but small poss of AQ, Aj also

I was hoping to win outright ?!?
Ep called, mp folded.

Anyone here just flat call 1200 ( about 27% of my stack )
Is folding too weak,even though there is so much play left in tourny.
I didn't "expect" ep to fold but I thought there was a good chance as he was not pot committed.

[vandalay]

Im not good enough to play the hand any different....
Calling was NOT an option... you let that AJ hit the flop and crush you anyway (AJ2 flop).

if your read was correct, then you were getting +EV on the hand as you had as 49% chance of winning the hand. and the dead money in the hand helps out....

Do you think the caller (2nd guy) had some of your outs, then Im not as sure about the raise.

Also... he is betting 25% of his stack.... and another guy calls for 30% of his stack.... Not sure about either of those plays..... Have they always been raising 1200 into a 300 pot? All that really does is confirm your read if they had been betting less.

Also, only top 2 get paid... you need lots of chips for that..... no way out of what you did.

What were thier hands?

-VI

[whiskeytown]

I"m gonna have to play this next week...I just won a satellite.

Ya know....you want to win it all essentially - only two payouts. You can't play to make money, you have to play to WIN.

So you get your money in there with the best of it every time. no limping into victory and probably no short stack dueling for the top spots.

Get the biggest stack or you die. I'd be all in here, and will be next week I'm sure.

RB

[Instinct]

As it turned out it was +ev as I went all in and the ep called all in with JJ and the lp folded. My money, his money plus 1200.
His Jacks held up to win a nice pot.

I expected to see a hand like JJ and was not all that surprised that he called as he probably put me most likely on AK.

I haven't concluded at all that the play was incorrect but I believe there is an argument to be made for either a flat call or fold here. This hand had me thinking not just about this hand but my lack of huge laydowns that are often so key to winning these tourney's. With the blinds increasing so slowly there was so much game to play.

Thanks for the responses

[Instinct]

Good Luck next week.
I really enjoyed the 1/2 hr blind increases.

[sdplayerb]

i'm not really sure you were playing a coinflip.
there is a strong chance the flat caller had an A, which hurts you big time.
plus in an almost winner takeall/top 2 take all situation, there is a lot less folding equity. he probably was more likely to fold in a regular tournament.

So I think you actually can flat call here as if you hit, one of them very likely has an A and will pay you off. And if you don't, you are still in with a decent stack.

With his raise of 6x, I don't see AJ as likely. Really 99-JJ are most likely, per your description. The cold call seems like AJ-AQ, KQ, but maybe 88-TT, so the first two are more likely, thus the loss of the A or K really hurts you.

But since the payout is so top heavy, I don't think any decision is too bad. But if I don't see the guy going away, I'd prefer to call.

If you were more around 3,000-3,500, I'd pushin.

[Instinct]

Thanks for sharing your thoughts on this. I had a conversation on the phone after the hand about the option of flat calling the bet. I had similar thoughts as you ... that if I didn't hit on flop that I could get away from hand and still have a decent amount of chips ( around 3500 ) with the blinds still 100-200. He said that if he flat called he would then go all in on the flop whatever turns up. I just don't think it is such a bad play to consider in this situation to flat call the raise and fold if no A or K or flush comes. I still would have been in ok shape.

Also considering my read of 1010 - QQ and knowing that there is a very reasonable chance he is going to call ( given payout structure and his 6X raise ) I also don't think it is that bad of a fold either. At the decision time I was deciding between a flat call and all in and went with the all in, but after thinking about the hand and some discussion I'm not convinced it is so weak to lay this hand down either.

[sdplayerb]

Your welcome.
I don't think it is that bad to fold it either, particularly as I said I think you are behind.
The reason I wouldn't is due to the payout structure.

I think a stop n go here (call, pushin on any flop) is absolutely terrible here, especially three handed.
Name a flop it will work on? If the guy has TT-QQ he is calling any small flop. If he has TT, and the flop is J high, he could fold, but it likely it the other guy.
On basically any flop, between the two of them one almost must have an overpair, or hit top pair.

AK is often a misplayed hand with 20x+ stacks and an early raiser. If he raised it any higher, I fold (and have folded preflop to a big raise with AK).

Something I notice, overraises (non-allin) in early position are extremely often JJ. When I've seen it on tv, and live, it is always JJ (don't really have quite enough examples to say it definitively though)..probably since they don't really want action.