Cris offers the wager to Paul

[citanul]

and the man doth say,

booyah

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]


Paul says good gamblers take +EV propositions. He says him laying 3:1 would be a great bet. Then he turns it down. Where is the logic?

Paul Phillips, please explain yourself, or I should be forced to continue to believe that you are a douchebag.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think Paul has laid out a cohesive and concise reasoning for why he doesn't want/need to play. I understand the point he was trying to emphasize in Cris' scrabble challenge, that incomplete information will lead to an inaccurate line. Maybe Cris KNEW PP's scrabble prowess, and maybe she's better than he is. I'm not sure who set the initial line, but I do believe it is true that Cris did/does have better access to PP's expertise than he does to her's.

I've heard several times how Howard Lederer was/is a chess grandmaster, but I have a friend who is only 25(doesn't matter THAT much, but it impresses the hell out of me..) who GUARANTEES me he would beat HL 9 times out of 10, but if my friend proposed this over a poker table, I'm sure HL would jump at the chance to play an unknown player, as long as it wasn't for a gigantic (to HL ) sum.

Of SLIGHT relevance here is my favorite Simpsons quote(more, I just LOVE using it) [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Homer, after being replaced in a Softball Game by Darryl Strawberry...

Homer: Hey, you're Darryl Strawberry!
Darryl: Hi Homer.
Homer: Do you think you're a better softball player then me?
Darryl: Well, I don't know you, but yes. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[swimfan]

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't say I think you'd cheat. I said I wouldn't trust you not to cheat.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmm, isn't that the same as saying "I would trust you to cheat". A world of difference indeed. Anyway, me=dumb.

[Justin A]

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't say I think you'd cheat. I said I wouldn't trust you not to cheat.
[ QUOTE ]
Hmmm, isn't that the same as saying "I would trust you to cheat". A world of difference indeed. Anyway, me=dumb.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

You can't just take away the negatives in his sentence and say it's the same thing. Saying he thinks she'd cheat and saying he's not sure she wouldn't cheat are completely different. Basically, for him to accept the challenge, he'd have to be sure that she wouldn't cheat. So even if there's only a 10% chance of that, he wouldn't bet her.

Justin A

[slickpoppa]

HL is a good chess player, but he is no grandmaster.

[fnurt]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Seriously, I wouldn't read anything into it more than what Paul said: he can't think of a reason he'd want to play a game of Scrabble with me (which I take to mean he wouldn't enjoy the game), and he thinks I'd cheat (which I wouldn't).

[/ QUOTE ]

You really are a lawyer, aren't you? It's so becoming to twist peoples' words. I'm sure you're a real hit at parties.

I didn't say I think you'd cheat. I said I wouldn't trust you not to cheat. If you can't see how far apart these statements are then I'll place the blame at your institution of learning. Isn't the LSAT supposed to insure our legal representatives enjoy some ability to decipher these differences?

You could also look up "confidence intervals" if it would help.

[/ QUOTE ]

I am a lawyer. I have taken your side several times in this discussion with Cris because I thought you had the better position. But you know what, I was probably just twisting words, so I think I should take it all back.

[AJo Go All In]

[ QUOTE ]
I've heard several times how Howard Lederer was/is a chess grandmaster, but I have a friend who is only 25(doesn't matter THAT much, but it impresses the hell out of me..) who GUARANTEES me he would beat HL 9 times out of 10, but if my friend proposed this over a poker table, I'm sure HL would jump at the chance to play an unknown player, as long as it wasn't for a gigantic (to HL ) sum.


[/ QUOTE ]

1) i am fairly sure howard lederer is not and never was a chess grandmaster.
2) the statement "X should beat Y in chess 9 times out of 10" makes little sense. this is because there is no luck involved in chess.
3) i'm sure howard WOULD NOT jump at the chance to take a chess bet against an unknown player. there would be no reason to believe he is a big favorite against someone willing to put money on the line that says he isn't.
4) this little story is not relevant to the subject at hand, because there is plenty of information out there about Cris. she is not an unknown quantity.

[fnurt]

[ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I've heard several times how Howard Lederer was/is a chess grandmaster, but I have a friend who is only 25(doesn't matter THAT much, but it impresses the hell out of me..) who GUARANTEES me he would beat HL 9 times out of 10, but if my friend proposed this over a poker table, I'm sure HL would jump at the chance to play an unknown player, as long as it wasn't for a gigantic (to HL ) sum.


[/ QUOTE ]

1) i am fairly sure howard lederer is not and never was a chess grandmaster.
2) the statement "X should beat Y in chess 9 times out of 10" makes little sense. this is because there is no luck involved in chess.
3) i'm sure howard WOULD NOT jump at the chance to take a chess bet against an unknown player. there would be no reason to believe he is a big favorite against someone willing to put money on the line that says he isn't.
4) this little story is not relevant to the subject at hand, because there is plenty of information out there about Cris. she is not an unknown quantity.

[/ QUOTE ]

Chess has a ratings system that is based on the exact proposition that such-and-such a player will beat another player 9 times out of 10. Just because it's a game of skill doesn't mean the same player wins every time.

For a large enough ratings difference, of course, the odds become astronomical, in much the same way that none of us have a chance to beat Andre Agassi in a tennis match, not even 1 time in 1000.

[Sent]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Paul says good gamblers take +EV propositions. He says him laying 3:1 would be a great bet. Then he turns it down. Where is the logic?

[/ QUOTE ]

In addition,

Socrates was a man.
All men are mortal.
Therefore, all men are Socrates.

I hope this explains everything to your satisfaction.

[/ QUOTE ]

Syllogism

But wouldn't the major premise be "All men are mortal" instead of "Socrates was a man"?

-Sent

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I've heard several times how Howard Lederer was/is a chess grandmaster, but I have a friend who is only 25(doesn't matter THAT much, but it impresses the hell out of me..) who GUARANTEES me he would beat HL 9 times out of 10, but if my friend proposed this over a poker table, I'm sure HL would jump at the chance to play an unknown player, as long as it wasn't for a gigantic (to HL ) sum.


[/ QUOTE ]

1) i am fairly sure howard lederer is not and never was a chess grandmaster.
2) the statement "X should beat Y in chess 9 times out of 10" makes little sense. this is because there is no luck involved in chess.
3) i'm sure howard WOULD NOT jump at the chance to take a chess bet against an unknown player. there would be no reason to believe he is a big favorite against someone willing to put money on the line that says he isn't.
4) this little story is not relevant to the subject at hand, because there is plenty of information out there about Cris. she is not an unknown quantity.

[/ QUOTE ]

1. It was said on ESPN in 2003, hence, it is fact.
2. I know there is no luck in chess. However, I have been told that the better player will win a significant % of the time, depending on the difference in skill. Kasparov, at the height of his supremacy, did NOT win every single game he played, but would likely win 9 out of ten on average vs a certain chess rank range. The person in question knows who he is, and can either support or refute my statement, as can a few of his friends who happen to be high level chess players that post on 2+2.
3. Yeah, i thought about this as I was posting, but I find it hard to believe HL would turn down a Chess Match for $1000 with my friend if they were at a tourney somewhere, unless he is familiar with my friend,(which he may be; I don't know how many players are international grandmasters...)
4. Do we know for sure that Cris Brown is her REAL name? If not, does PP or anyone HAVE access to her real name? Also, it seems to me if Cris Brown DID appear in the Scrabble rankings, it is a common enough name that positive identification could be problematic.
2.