How much of an edge woud the best players fold early?

[lastchance]

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"I would bet that in a large tourney most top players are more than 90% likely to double up before going bust."

That is inconceivable. And its truth would imply that such a player should fold not only kings but also ACES if forced all in (getting slightly better than even money) at the beginning of the tournament.

I'm sure that even the most egostistical of the top tournament players would put themselves below 70%.

[/ QUOTE ]
You clearly underestimate Phil Hellmuth. :P

However, I think the more interesting question here, is about folding Kings instead of a numerical edge because it is more relevant to an actual situation.

At the main event WSOP, your table is made of complete fish, except for this one player who sits to your left. This is one of the first few hours of the tournament, and you don't have a great read on anybody, but you have ideas on how they play.

Kings in the CO, and you raise 3x BB. Your opponent has 2x your stack, and raises back at you. Your opponent has been quite aggressive today, and while you can't put him on a specific range of hands, you have Kings. You reraise. Now, your opponent puts in a 4th raise, and essentially forces you to a decision for your entire stack right here.

All of these are relatively standard No-Limit raises, you have 12,000 in chips right now. Unfortunately, I don't know exactly what the WSOP structure is, so that's the best I can do.

Do you go all in, or do you fold?

[Greg (FossilMan)]

If you're ever going to fold KK preflop, now is the time to do it. The fourth raise is going to be less than AA very seldom.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)