60-120 hand Th3h

[Tommy Angelo]

Me: "I never see the flop from the cutoff with 10-3."

You: "Even if you already posted your cutoff blind as a new player?"

I don't post in the cutoff. I start on the big blind.

"Anyway I've gotta run soon (to the Bike) but just to clarify I don't work the floor at the Bike except as a fill in when we are swamped. Mostly I'm a playing host, with many miscellaneous duties."

Well whatever it is you do over there, it's getting very much in the way of your posting!

"my guess is your baseline play would be to fold."

Okay, baseline, as best as I can honestly predict, even though I won’t be faced with such a decision as mike faced on the flop, I would not even remotely consider folding. And once I’ve decided to not fold, then raising strikes me as a much better play, for me, than calling. But again, it's irrelevant what I think. It’s been a long long time since I was in an unraised-by-me pot in the cutoff, with top pair on the flop, and 10-3 as my cards, or any other unpainted 4+ gapper, facing a bet and some callers on the flop. It just can’t happen to me. And I don't want it to. That's why it doesn't happen. Therefore I am declaring myself and my opinions on this situation worthless by way of inexperience with it. That said, I think mike should have raised the flop.

Tommy

[JimmyV]

[ QUOTE ]

We're up against inferior players, none of whom raised the flop. We're going to get to see what all of them do on the turn. If we feel we've fallen behind and have insufficient outs/odds to see the river, we can fold. If we feel we've caught a good card, we have other options.

We have position, top pair, 11:1, and superior playing skills.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bingo! Perfectly said.

[andyfox]

"I am declaring myself and my opinions on this situation worthless by way of inexperience with it. That said, I think . . . "

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Anyway, you are completely wrong. Nothing you comment about will ever be even remotely worthless. And if it is, your Hemmingway comment will, forever and ever, make up for it.

[CDs_Nts]

I'm starting to like this group. I've never seen such a crap hand cause so much hub-bub. I agree with some of the others that you have to bet the river for value. The pot's too big for anybody to fold a hand like 78, or even ace hi for some, and I wouldn't consider the queen a scare card. I don't see how you could fold top pair on this board on the flop or turn without any pre-flop raisers even though your kicker blows. Although now that I think about it, you're probably the only one with a ten considering nobody between you and the sb raised the flop and he folded to your raise on the turn (Odd play by him there. Bet into four callers on the turn then fold to a raise by the button?). I say go ahead and raise the flop, bet the turn, and if the sb is still in check the river. If he folds like he did I think you can safely bet the river. Honestly, I don't see how you're behind here unless someone's slowplaying 89. A set or 2-pair would've raised the flop or turn to get the str8 and flush draws out, AQ is most likely folded, and a dummy str8 would've raised the turn.

And then if you were somehow behind the whole way, it sticks in people's mind that you played a T3s that aggressively with only one pair, undoubtedly getting you some calls in later hands. At least that's how I rationalize it when I put extra bets in the pot in sub-optimal conditions. I may be wrong, but I think this simplistic concept works in these games, not just on Party 15/30.

[mike l.]

"I would not even remotely consider folding."

there rick. you lose. next hand.

[Zeno]

[ QUOTE ]
"there's got to be a right answer to this."

Wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

A point to often forgotten but this will certainly not stop the ongoing and almost certain endless debate that is sure to follow about this hand.

-Zeno

[Zeno]

[ QUOTE ]
We have position, top pair, 11:1, and superior playing skills.

[/ QUOTE ]

The button was still to act, right.


'and superior playing skills'.

If players A, B, and C, with different playing style and skills are in the same circumstances should all three players call?

More than likely, I would not know what I would have done unless I were actually at the table. Would Andy Fold or Call?

-Zeno

[andyfox]

Andy Fox would have called.

See my "In the absence of Coilean" post.

[andyfox]

In the absence of Coilean, is this any good? I'm among the math-challenged, so corrections/comments appreciated.

Let’s assume that after you call, the button folds. Let’s also assume that you’re not going to put any more $ into the pot unless you catch either a T, a 3, a 4, or a heart on the turn. 47 cards left, of which 29 are neither tens, 3s, 4s, nor hearts. So you’re going to fold on the turn. 29 x -$60 = -$1,740.

5 times you’re going to catch a T or a 3. Let’s assume you win only 50% of the time that you do. And that you’ll put one bet in on both the turn and river and that there will be 3 other bets go in total from your opponents.

So 2.5 times out of the 5 you win $1020 ($660 already in the pot, plus 3 x $120) = +$2,550. 2.5 times you lose $300 ($60 + $120 +$120) = -$750.

3 times you're going to catch a non-heart 4. Let's assume you're going to win the pot only 20% of the time when this happens (by either making a straight or catching a T or a 3 on the river). So 2.4 times you're going to see the river card and lose. This is -$432 (2.4 x -$180). And .6 times you're going to win. This is +$612 (.6 x +1,020).

10 times you’re going to catch a heart. And let’s assume you win 20% of the time when you catch a heart on the turn (by either making a flush or catching a T or 3 on the river). You only call (or bet) the river when you make the flush or catch a T or 3 on the river. This means that 8 times you lose $180 ($60 on the flop and $120 on the turn) = -$1,440. And 2 times you win $1020 = +$2,040.

I come up with +$840. Divided by 47, that's +$17.87/hand.

No?

[tolbiny]

the EV he gave up by calling the flop (my estimate is about 40% of a small bet

Jeez Rick, 40%? If it was heads up with a 0$ pot he would have to win 30% of the time to lose 40% of his bet. With 11-1 odds if he wins 10% of the time he will still win 110% of his bet, so he would have to win in 2.7% of the time or so to lose 40% of his bet.
it is very hard to give up 40% in a fairly large pot like this.