week 2 - a great week in the nfl for betting

[natedogg]

Week 2 always offers lots of good options. Lines are tailored for the public, not to reflect reality. And the public always over-reacts to week 1.

For the record.
Last week totals 1-1
Last week sides 2-1

Jax/Den under 39
The best total I've ever seen. Seriously.

For the life of me I can't believe anyone was fooled by the awful Denver offense on Sunday night.

Plummer looked like a rookie making wacky left-handed throws from the endzone. The receivers were mediocre
at best. Griffin victimized a terrible run-defense that may gel later in the season after new D-coordinator
Cunningham has had some time to coach them. But for now, they are the same old KC D.

Facing the Jacksonville D will be a very different story. If Plummer continues to play like he did, and the Jags D stuffs the run like they have done for the last 8 games, Denver may not even win the game.

Yet, the Denver defense played very well, slowing KC's incredible attack. 10 points came from KC getting 2 turnovers on Denver's 30 yard line. Tough to do much about that. Thank you Jake Plummer for giving KC a fighting
chance.

On the other side of the coin, Jags put up only 13 against a very strong defense. Denver's D will be no easier for them. Champ Bailey is simply awesome. Bills showed how much they miss Antione Winfield during the Jags' last drive. It wont' happen this week with Champ Bailey on the field.

Good trade Shanahan.

This game is going to be a defensive slug fest and Griffin may not see the endzone or break 100 yards, considering Jags have twice in a row held a man like Travis Henry under 100.

It'll be a whole different story for the Denver offense this week. Take the under.


Oakland/Buffalo under 38
This is simple.

Buffalo was an under-machine all last year. They seem to have gone nowhere from there.

Low scoring affair, possibly a shutout for one of these defenses.

Tampa/Seattle under 37
Seattle travelled to New Orleans and back and now they have the longest flight possible for an NFL game, or close to it at least. I think Tampa D will give them a very hard time, especially with Alexander being gimpy. Yet the Seattle D seems much improved, not to mention Tampa put up 3 pts last week.

SIDES

Dallas -4 vs. Cle
This is the classic case where a team blew it's wad playing the game of their lives vs. a superior division rival and now they are on the road vs. a better team. They're gonna get killed. Dallas is ready for blood and they will not let up on Cleveland

Arizona +8.5 vs. New England
Every trend and situation in the book points to Arizona here. It feels like suicide pulling the trigger on Arizona, but I have to do it. It's up to 9 at 5dimes. Probably go higher by sunday.

last but not least:
Rams +2.5 at Atlanta
Rams are the better team by far. Vick made ONE completion in the second half of the 9er game. Both the 9ers AND the Rams had bad turnover situations last week, making Atlanta look much better than they played, and vice versa for the Rams. Atlanta's dome will feel like home, take the points.

natedogg

[scalf]

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] nice write-ups and pix; as usual nate...

seems you are not real concerned about nfl rule change regarding mugging of receivers; which was supposed to up scoring..

i like all your unders..

gl

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

[sublime]

Jax/Den under 39

Yeah it is a good total.

But not as good as the under 40.5 I have from Monday [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[tolbiny]

Dallas -4 vs. Cle
This is the classic case where a team blew it's wad playing the game of their lives vs. a superior division rival and now they are on the road vs. a better team. They're gonna get killed. Dallas is ready for blood and they will not let up on Cleveland

Being a cleveland fan this comes with the normal hometown disclaimer.
I am not looking for a letdown against Dalles' from the browns. This is an entirely different team, from Garcia to Winslow the leaders on this team have a lot more passion and energy. As the offense comes together they are going to put up a fair amount of points- two big fast recievers in Morgan and Davis will open up their passing attack later on in the year. This could easily be a classic case of a team winning a big game early in the season and riding a hot streak based on confidence and the natural unity that comes from dominating a big favorite.
True we haven't seen how cleveland's pass D will work, but i don't think that Testeverde and his recievers are really going to show us where the holes are.
This is all devils advocating, as they just as easily could have a let down and get blown away, as a fan i am looking for a cleveland win, but as a sports better i am looking for a cleveland cover with the line at -5 right now.

[blownheadgasket]

Its 37 now [img]/images/graemlins/shocked.gif[/img]

[tony_brock]

Jax 7 Den 6

Good call NateDog.

Nothing was sticking out as a good bet to me until I read your post. Made alot of sense to me.

You're "lock of the century" paid off!

[Porcupine]

Thanks for the write-ups (I'll take 2 out of 3). I followed you with:

Jax/Den under 39 "The best total I've ever seen. Seriously."
Oakland/Buffalo under 38.
Rams +2.5 at Atlanta

For some reason I didn't pull the trigger on Sea/TB under [img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

[Easy E]

Now, if natedog had said "Jax/Broncos under 20!" THEN I would have been impressed!

[img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[natedogg]

Well my totals did great. I'm obviously very happy about those.

The sides were another matter. Like I said, it felt like suicide pulling the trigger on Arizona and it was. Damn cards. I do however plan to bet them often this year at home. They covered most games at home last year and the public-tailored lined don't reflect how tough they play in the desert. I'm really looking forward to their next home game as I think the line will be juicy.

I was wrong about the Rams. They look like a whole lot of suck right now and I'm surprised they're laying 8 on the Saints. Saints are probably a better team, as scary as that sounds. Plus they are the kind of team that can surprise you on any week. Getting 8 is pretty nice. I think I like the saints this week, but I'll have to look into it more.

Generally this week's lines look pretty tough. Some of the huge dogs seem wrong but I'm not sure which ones.

I am leaning toward New Orleans and entertaining the other dogs. Laying double digis on a division rival is hard to do, so the 9ers and Chargers intrigue me right now.

Oooh here's one. WTF is kansas city doing laying 9 on ANYBODY, especially without Priest? Dominic Davis will lead the league in yardage this week, just like every back who faces KC right? That's a weird line. Maybe I'm a square but hot damn, that is ridiculous.

natedogg