analysis: final hand of wsop 2004

[hockey1]

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play 55 out of position against a reraiser? terrible.

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This is just wrong. He obviously put his opponent on 2 big cards, not a pair. Obviously if his read is wrong then he misplayed it, but we weren't there and we can't say how confident he was in his read. So, let's assume he was reasonable confident. If that's right, he's ahead in the hand and he's getting well over 1:1 on his money. Being out of position makes the hand considerably harder to play, but even so, if the flop is ragged and he pushes he's in great shape. Add to that the fact that he may have felt he needed to push small advantages because he's not as good a player as his opponents and the preflop call makes perfect sense -- he doesn't want to risk his whole stack with an all-in preflop re-raise that almost certainly would've been called, but he's unwilling to give up the considerable odds the pot was laying.

As for the check in the dark, I agree that was just dumb. It also draws into question my assumption about his strategy for the hand. But, objectively, I think the preflop call was not as bad as some seem to think.

[Sponger15SB]

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I thought I read somewhere that Williams felt that if he folded on the river he would have been such a big underdog in chips (maybe 4 to 1) so he felt he needed to call and hope Greg was bluffing with Ace high.

Ken

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I don't think he even thought it through that much. It took him about 2 seconds or less(literally) to call both of Raymer's final 2 bets. I DON'T THINK HE EVEN REALLY THOUGHT IT THROUGH! This is the amazing part to me.

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He pratically beat Raymer into the pot after the turn bet. I thought that was pretty insane NO MATTER WHAT HE HAD.

I'd really want to know what greg was thinking when he was playing this hand, because it was pretty odd the way williams played it.

[blank]

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it shouldve been an easy read and a REALLY easy lay down

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Uh huh [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] If you say so? Oh that's right you could see his cards.

His mistake there was not being aggressive enough. Middle pair and a gutshot and an Ace (top overcard) is a monster headsup. He shoulda turned up the heat rather than calling.

But you are right after seeing the cards through the lipstick camera it was simple to put Raymer on 88 or any other overpair!

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u're stupid.
i thought this was already made clear on the original post, but i guess some people just started playing poker. all williams needs to see to lay his hand down on the turn is his cards. he has A4, the only thing he can beat with the board as it was is basically a bluff. raymer was betting and re-raising all hand, it shouldve been an easy read that Raymer was not on a bluff, and williams shouldve folded. and you guys are saying raymer was playing agressively all day, true he was, but he was never on a complete bluff, at most a semi-bluff, and even that couldve beaten williams.

my point stands

[daryn]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">In risposta di:</font><hr />
and you guys are saying raymer was playing agressively all day, true he was, but he was never on a complete bluff,

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incorrect statement.

[wayabvpar]

I think Williams was tired, severely outchipped, and cowed by Raymer (both from his aggression and from his chip stack, to say nothing of his glasses!). I think he decided was just going to make a stand with that hand, and got sucked in street by street. Not his best play by a long shot, but I think I understand why he did it.

[mrbaseball]

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u're stupid

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I surrender!

[WiredPear]

You're right, he'd not getting odds to call. However, he was getting implied odds to call. Josh had a big stack and was likely to give action, considering his style. I'm not sure it was the right call (in fact, I probably would've folded), but I don't think you can say it was wrong because of the odds. He was getting the correct implied odds.

After the hand, he said he just felt it. I buy that. In that moment, he was willing to gamble and just felt that he would hit his set. In the end, he just got plain lucky.

[nolanfan34]

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I don't think he even thought it through that much. It took him about 2 seconds or less(literally) to call both of Raymer's final 2 bets. I DON'T THINK HE EVEN REALLY THOUGHT IT THROUGH! This is the amazing part to me.

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I think he did think it through. I think he did think he was ahead, and that Greg was trying to bully him off the pot. Now, obviously that would be incorrect thinking, but I think it's the error that he made.

If I remember the PF action correctly, Williams raised, and Greg just called. That was the key part of the hand IMO. At that point, Williams probably would assume that with a pocket pair, Greg would have re-raised playing as aggressively as he had.

When the flop came with all low cards, Williams probably figured Greg missed the flop with something like QT or J9, and that his CR of the flop was merely an attempt to buy the pot with his overcards.

The turn is where Williams should have realized something was up, but he probably felt if he wasn't ahead already, that he could catch a 4, 3, or A on the river to make a better hand than whatever Greg had.

By the river he had pot committed himself, and it was too late.

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i will say this though (like i already said), i know its different with the bright lights and the cameras and the hours of play. so i 'guess' its understandable that williams would make this mistake, after all he's still young and far from a johnny chan. but that doesnt change the fact taht he played very poorly on this hand.

[citanul]

oh come now daryn, if you're going to start snapping off every easy one like this, it's just going to get silly.

citanul