Tonights WPT-Scotty N-You've Gotta Swallow

[MisterKing]

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nice analysis.

another point is that when they ran through the prize-money at the end it looked like 3rd and 4th place money were pretty close anyway. it went kind of fast and i don't feel like looking it up but i think it was something like:

4th - 315k
3rd - 390k
2nd - 750k
1st - 1.51 mil


if this is right then there's no point in just trying to hang on hoping someone else busts-out which i believe could have been the only other legitimate excuse for a short-stack to fold here with those kind of pot-odds.

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Thanks, Bob.

Even allowing for your point about gambling to have a shot at top money, Scotty had to know a few other things: John was mathematically forced to call with a wide range of hands (e.g. no folding equity), his own (Scotty's) hand plays very poorly hot and cold those times he is called, and maybe more importantly then those two, there would very likely be a chance down the road to get his money in vs John (or another opponent) with better odds. It's the thing where Sklansky harps on skipping a merely good bet today to have the chance to make a much better wager tomorrow. Scotty HAD to know this was likely the case, but he steamed and blew his shot at moving up significantly in prize money when he moved in with 98 s00ted.

[MicroBob]

i also considered the possibility that maybe scotty just read the kid as being a bit of a doofus who wouldn't be able to figure it out.

this is especially important if the kid has shown a tendency to be pushed around (which I think we saw part of perhaps).

and scotty's attempt to steal it might have merit if he thought the kid was playing extremely tight and if thought he was trying to hang on for bigger 3rd place money. if the difference from 4th to 3rd was 300k to 550k or something then maybe this would make a little more sense....or not be quite as terrible at least.


but as it was...
- there wasn't a big difference in prize-money
- the kid had probably already established that he wasn't THAT much of a doofus
- it is more likely that scotty was just merilly steaming away and wasn't analyzing too intelligently

[TransientR]

I nominate Scotty for all time WPT steamer.....

Maybe the combination of the TV cameras/lights, Shana, and the beer scrambles his brains a bit.

Frank

[MLG]

Im watching on mute (the tv feed is effed up for some reason). Anyway, they had a piece on Negreanu where they show him getting in an argument at the table on one of the early days. What was that all about?

[Boris]

just watched it. ROTFLMAO! scotty is da man!

[csuf_gambler]

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Last time I saw him, he was hitting on Shana Hiatt. This time around, he ended his exit interview with "you've gotta swallow". Too frigging funny

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i just watched it and wow, that was both scary and funny at the same time.

it was just so fuggin random, he just says "you've gotta swallow", without any context what so ever. is it actually possible that scotty was telling shanie that she has to swallow(jizz)? or was he saying like it was a tough day and you have got to swallow it as in just take it in stride?

[ononimo]

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Last time I saw him, he was hitting on Shana Hiatt. This time around, he ended his exit interview with "you've gotta swallow". Too frigging funny

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i just watched it and wow, that was both scary and funny at the same time.

it was just so fuggin random, he just says "you've gotta swallow", without any context what so ever. is it actually possible that scotty was telling shanie that she has to swallow(jizz)? or was he saying like it was a tough day and you have got to swallow it as in just take it in stride?

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Scotty may have the hots for Shana and may drink too much at the table but it's pretty obvious that he wasn't telling Shana to swallow anything ... he was talking about "swallowing one's medicine" after a rough time at the table. there WAS context - just listen to his opening comments in the interview.

although the other interpretation IS pretty f'n funny.

[Army Eye]

Only WPT thread here so I'll do a semi-hijack.

Why the hell does Grinder need to cover up his hat?

[MLG]

logos are advertisments. players aren't allowed to advertise on the WPT.

[The Bear]

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Yes, that was a bad play by scotty! Don't know if it was the alcohol, or if he has some leaks.

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I thought about this for a while, and it wasn't a minor mistake. It was COLOSSAL. Consider the following...

For those that didn't watch, here's the backdrop... There are four players at the table, and Scotty is playing fairly wild. Two hands ago, Scotty (holding ATo) raised Daniel's turn bet (holding KQo) and then Scotty folded after being re-raised all in. The board read 7Q5[9], with a second spade coming on the turn. The flop had gone check-check. This resulted in a loss of about 45% of Scotty's stack.

The next hand, Scotty picked up QJo and moved in for 400K with only Daniel left to act after him (Daniel holding approx 2M or more). Daniel squeezed Kc8c and correctly called, making himself a 58/42 favorite. This was the start of a trend... Anyhow, the flop came JTT, the turn an offsuit 9, and no help for Daniel meaning Scotty doubled up and finished the hand with just about 1M in chips.

The very next hand (and not just the very next TV hand, according to the broadcast), John Stolzmann, a 23 year old college student from Wisconsin who has been pushed off of hands before by Scotty, picked up Kc8c on the button and makes it 200K to go, with blinds at 25K/50K. His stack before the bet was approximately 575K. Here's where the fure really starts to fly.

Scotty, in the BB I believe, wakes up with 9s8s and moves all in pretty rapidly. With the 25K SB dead in the pot, and approx 10K in antes also dead in there, John is getting about 800:370 to call, or 2.16:1.

John starts to think this is a pretty attractive price on a call. He doesn't need to think he has the best hand to make it. He's the shortest stack of the four remaining players. He's got 4th place money locked up and would have only 7BB left if he folded. Did I mention he was getting 2.16:1 on a call?

So what kinds of hands are better than 2.16:1 (or 31.65%) to beat Scotty's range of hands here? We've seen Scotty push with QJo recently, and have to assume that AA-66 is also in his range. That leaves the question of what other non-pairs are likely to be in the mix. Frankly, four handed I think AK-A4 suited and not, KQ-K7 both ways, QJ-Q9o plus Q8s, JT-J7 both ways, T9-T7s, 98s and 97s, and probably a few of the suited one and two gappers down to 76/75. This is a HUGE range, with many of the hands being dogs to John's K8.

A few examples: John's hand is 34.5% vs K9o, 43.5% vs A7o, 41% vs A5s, 46% vs red 7's, 38.5% vs Ac 6c, and 32% vs 9h9s. This last statistic is very, very telling, because it holds all the way up to QQ -- even if one of the queens is a club. Scotty would need to have a pair bigger than Queens, a dominating suited King, AK, or... well or nothing, because that's it. That's all I can think of that's better than 68.35% vs K8s. Knowing this, is there any way at all John cannot call? I doubt it.

Anyone out there with PokerStove able to run a sim with John's hand vs the range I identified above for Scotty? I'm guessing John had a 4 to 7% overlay from the pot -- definitely enough to gambool.

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I ran PokerStove on your hand range with a couple of randoms thrown in. By the way, I think your range might be a little wide here, but regardless, the number for K8s is 45.7%.

I would like to make one point, though. Keep in mind that I didn't watch the broadcast, so I might be missing something (I apologize if I am). It seems that people are looking at this from the wrong perspective and are forgetting a key factor: Stolzmann ALSO has a wide range of hands there, many of which he might lay down. I don't care how tight he plays or has been playing; he opened on the button in a 4-handed final table with large blinds. That says very little. Does he open with Q9o there? Probably. Does he call the rest of his chips off? Questionable.

My point is this. If Scotty somehow knew that Stolzmann had K8s and still pushed, then yes, it's probably a bad play. Virtually any reasonable poker player would understand that they were receiving a big overlay in that spot with K8s against Scotty's range. But Scotty doesn't know Stolzmann's hand!! All he knows is that John opened on the button 4-handed and has shown a tendency to lay down when faced with heat (I pulled those assumptions from the post above. Again, I didn't see the show). Maybe Stolzmann folds many of his opening hands there. If he does, it's a huge coup for Scotty. And if he gets called, is it really that bad? As it was, he ran in to a tough hand and was still only a 2-1 dog.


Here's something else to think about. Give Stolzmann this range of opening hands: any pair, any ace, KQo-K8o, KQs-K7s, QJs-Q8s, QJo-Q9o, JTs, JTo, J9s, J9o, 9Ts, 9To. That's a very generous range for him. Really, we should probably dump the 9To/J9o stuff and add in a few more Kx's, but we'll stick with this because the range actually fares better against 89s. If you run PokerStove, you'll see that Scotty's hand has 39.1% equity. Again, against one of the worst reasonable ranges for Scotty's hand.

Now let's assume that Stolzmann doesn't just raise, he pushes. Stolz started with 575k. What kind of price is Scotty getting? 85k in dead money (25k/50k blinds and 10k in antes). He has already posted his blind, so it's 525k to call with 660k in the pot. He gets 1.26-1 on his call and needs 44.3% equity to make a breakeven call.

So with fold equity of ZERO, Scotty is making an equity mistake of 5% or less. Guess what happens when Stolzmann will fold 5% of his opening hands? Or 10%? Or 25%? Remember that every time Stolzmann folds, Scotty picks up a 'free' 335k.

With large blinds, you need to be very careful how you judge these all-in situations. I'm not saying that Scotty made a well-reasoned, mathematically logical move. For all I know, his fold equity could have been exactly zero. But to dismiss his move as bad poker because he'll usually get called is nonsense.

The Bear