#11
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Re: \"You are pathetic\" (preflop question)
[ QUOTE ]
Well, if you could anticipate that flop coming, you'd definitely want to play [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img][ QUOTE ] Can't all good players do that? |
#12
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Re: \"You are pathetic\" (preflop question)
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] However, you have horrible position and it may be capped. [/ QUOTE ] I feel like my position with respect to the initial raiser is pretty good. Anyone else agree? Also, why should it being capped worry me? 5 way 87s is pretty good regardless of the stakes right? Just kinda sucked when it came back two to me. [/ QUOTE ] Your implied odds with your speculative hand are hurt by this kind of preflop action, so that's one problem. Also, you could get trapped chasing a longshot expensively if you flop one pair or a gutshot. Your relative position to the PFRs seems all right to me, though. For instance, at least the chances of getting stuck chasing a weak draw on an installment plan aren't that high. |
#13
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Re: \"You are pathetic\" (preflop question)
[ QUOTE ]
I feel like my position with respect to the initial raiser is pretty good. Anyone else agree? [/ QUOTE ] Position doesn't matter all that much with 87s anyway. You're only looking to play if you make a big hand. In fact, in this case I'd almost rather be to the right of the raiser (as you are) so I could check/raise the entire field after they'd invested a bet. I also wouldn't be too concerned about postflop action with this many players. Any non-made hand you decide to play is likely going to have enough outs to be drawing pretty cheaply even if you have to pay 2 (or more) bets on any given street. [ QUOTE ] Also, why should it being capped worry me? 5 way 87s is pretty good regardless of the stakes right? [/ QUOTE ] 13-2 (or 17-3) aren't killer odds when you know you'll need at least 2 pair to win. I'd be calling but I wouldn't argue too hard if someone I respect said I should fold. |
#14
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Re: \"You are pathetic\" (preflop question)
[ QUOTE ]
Also, why should it being capped worry me? [/ QUOTE ] it shouldnt. I may even consider capping myself if deception is worth anything at this table. |
#15
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Re: \"You are pathetic\" (preflop question)
does anyone have instructions for pokerstat download terms?
Does it work with Paradise? |
#16
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Re: \"You are pathetic\" (preflop question)
Things to draw:
2 pair/FH (2,1%) trip/quad (1,3%) flush (0.8%) flushdraw (10,9%) 8out-str8draw 69 / 56 (2,3%) 4out-str8draw 6T / 46 / 9T (3,4%). That is: 4.2% chance of an almost sure win. 13,2% for to be 2 to 1 dog with an 8 out draw. 3.4% chance to be 5 to 1 dog with a 4 out draw. Now i am a newebie and it is difficult to tell the EV of all these situations, so the next part better be re-done by someone experienced: To keep it simple, i am gonna assume the average pot you will win when you win is 12 Big bets, not including your own bets. I am not gonna attempt to make a difference between a concealed 2 pair or a clearly visible flush. 4.2% chance of an almost sure win. 13,2% for to be 2 to 1 dog with an 8 out draw. this adds another 4.4% to the pots you win, and 8.8% of the pots where you pay an aditional 2.5 big bets. 3.4% chance to be 5 to 1 dog with a 4 out draw. 0.6% more wins. 2.8% paying 2 more big bets. (less that the 8 outer since you wont make a value bet and you won't cold call (re)raises) 100 times you call the preflop reraise: -100 big bets. 9.2 pots you win 12 big bets: +110.4 big bets. 8.8 pots you add 2.5 big bets: -22 2.8 pots you add 2 big bets: -6.6 Total EV for this call: -18.2/100 big bets. Of course, now you need the right numbers for my newbie estimates of 12, 2.5 and 2 [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] |
#17
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Re: \"You are pathetic\" (preflop question)
The average pot is gonna be WAY more than 12 bets, considering 10 went in preflop. I managed to get in 18 bets this time.
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#18
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Re: \"You are pathetic\" (preflop question)
hmm ya. 8 went in preflop right? (5*3 = 15 +SB)
so make it 14-15 maybe? increasing it more also requires increasing the post flop investment. that pretty much evens out i think. 2 more big bets in the winning pot is exactly whats need to make the call break even. |
#19
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Re: \"You are pathetic\" (preflop question)
well at least 8 are in at most 10 preflop in a 5 way cap.
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#20
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Re: \"You are pathetic\" (preflop question)
[ QUOTE ]
well at least 8 are in at most 10 preflop in a 5 way cap. [/ QUOTE ] oh ya, i did not consider a cap, that would of course make the situation only worse. and lowers the EV below 0 again. |
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