Who continuation bets?

[cartman]

I think a bet is a big mistake. MP and SB both called your UTG raise preflop. I think the chances that at least one of them has an A or a J is VERY good, in which case a bet is horrible.

Cartman

[ggbman]

[ QUOTE ]
I think a bet is a big mistake. MP and SB both called your UTG raise preflop. I think the chances that at least one of them has an A or a J is VERY good, in which case a bet is horrible.

Cartman

[/ QUOTE ]

There is a very decent chance one of them has an ace or a J, but that doesnt make it horrible at all. If he has a J, betting is definitly correct, and if he isnt raising an ace, it's still correct. Put more thought into it before making comment like that.

[DMBFan23]

one thing I forgot to factor in is how often it checks around if we check. since I think this is about never, I think betting gets some bonus points there. hmm maybe I should c/r more from these spots with good hands...

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
one thing I forgot to factor in is how often it checks around if we check. since I think this is about never, I think betting gets some bonus points there. hmm maybe I should c/r more from these spots with good hands...

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmmm.......

[sy_or_bust]

[ QUOTE ]
IMO, betting is the best line:
1. You might be able to pick up the pot with a single bet
2. if MP1 folds and the blinds call you can take a free river.
3 You have an okay draw, and your K and Q may still be worth something if you spike a pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

The value of each of these points is very player dependent. Against tight players, you have extra fold and free card equity, plus you have a better idea of where you stand when called. Good players will rarely play back at you without a better hand. Loose players may peel and either fold the turn or give you a free card out of position.

I like betting out against tight and predictable players, because I know I can occassionally take the pot down immediately (weak-tight/good) or even with a turn bet (certain breeds of loose passives). The former will often give free cards. I would never bet against loose aggressive players, or other opponents particularly likely to hold an ace or raising hand. The key to betting profitably here is not being raised on the flop.

[Fiddler]

I'm check-calling. For one thing it would suck to have to pay 2SB to see the turn since you have to see it. Also, I figure I'm probably behind and drawing and have to hit something to win since I think it will usually go to showdown. The flop has probably hit at least one of them and if it has they have already proven that they are loose by cold-calling an UTG raise. Pre-loosies are usually post-loosies absent a read that tells me otherwise.

[StellarWind]

There seems to be confusion about the action. I read that BB is gone and we have three opponents, two of whom are sitting behind us. The flop action is SB checks, Hero ???.

I consider this decision to be close between bet and checkcall. Many of the posters in this thread are not addressing the actual issues.

It is usually the case that our choice doesn't matter very much. We can bet and be called or we can check and call a bet from behind us. For example if we bet and are called only by the button who has A2 then nothing bad has happened unless he was planning to give us a free card.

Consider the cases where it actually does matter what we do:

1. (Bet) We can win this pot immediately by betting, possibly folding out a small pair in the process. This is a good bluffing board for a PFR and if no one hit then we are likely to take it down. Decent players are unlikely to call this flop with a pocket pair lower than JJ, especially if they are not last to act. Comments by some posters that Button and/or SB must be idiots for coldcalling preflop are silly. First of all their preflop calls may be perfectly correct and second many players who make incorrect coldcalls preflop are still decent players who are capable of folding this flop with a weak pair.

Realize also that it's a big victory to bet and win the pot by folding out 32, 32, and 32 respectively. Having the best hand is not very helpful when your hand is too weak to take any heat. If you check the flop and fail to improve on the turn, this pot will probably be taken away from you whether you have the best hand or not.

2. (Check) We can get raised and forced to pay two bets to chase. The field may be reduced by this raise which is very costly because we are banking on a nut draw that wants company.

3. (Check) We may be betting the worst hand when we could have had a free card. For this reason I would condemn a bet against unknown opponents in a 1/2 game.

4. (Bet) We may buy ourselves a free card on the turn. Note that it won't always be necessary to actually drive out both MP and Button. We only need to drive out the player who would have bet. Even if we drive out no one we may still create a free card. It may be sufficient to persuade SB not to bet Ax or frighten a hand behind us like 66. Typical fish play with 66 is to call the flop (got a pair) and then accept all available freebies. They know your turn check denies an ace but in their mind you probably have something like QJ or TT because that's how they play. Checking the flop is much more likely to trigger either immediate betting or at least a turn bet when you check again.

Reads will tell you how to weight possibilities 1-4. Without reads I think it is a close decision at 5/10 but I would tend to bet. Many players are prone to betting at vacuums but rarely raise. Against these players betting has a lot to gain and little to lose. Other players raise a lot and checkcalling is the only way to go.

The important thing is that you frame the question properly and think about the right things. Those who say something like "any ace or jack will call ... therefore betting is bad" are lost in my perpsective. Compared to checkcalling, betting and being called by a better hand could cost money, save money, or breakeven.

[SA125]

This is a good spot to check for 2 reasons, besides that you missed it -

1 - you raised UTG and checked when an A hit the flop, thus giving off the only tell I've ever found to be reliable online - you hit your hand and play weak. Happens all the time and if the players behind you do it, they'll check behind.

2 - there's 9 SB's in pot already giving you the odds to call your gut shot. Hope it only costs you 1 to call if someone bets.

[cartman]

I didn't intend to be derogatory at all, I was just offering my opinion which may of course be wrong. I apologize if I came across as if I across as if I know the answer.

How is a bet correct if I know that one of them has a J, assuming that he won't fold it? If I have 10 outs, I am still a significant underdog to win the hand, right? I can see it if the other person calls as well because now I am getting 2 to 1 on my bet.

Also, how is a bet correct if I have an opponent who won't raise with an Ace? I only have 4 outs against him (neglecting runner KQ, KK, or QQ). It seems like this would be very -EV.

I am sure that you are probably correct, I just don't understand. Can anyone shed some light on this?

Cartman

[ggbman]

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't intend to be derogatory at all, I was just offering my opinion which may of course be wrong. I apologize if I came across as if I across as if I know the answer.

How is a bet correct if I know that one of them has a J, assuming that he won't fold it? If I have 10 outs, I am still a significant underdog to win the hand, right? I can see it if the other person calls as well because now I am getting 2 to 1 on my bet.

Also, how is a bet correct if I have an opponent who won't raise with an Ace? I only have 4 outs against him (neglecting runner KQ, KK, or QQ). It seems like this would be very -EV.

I am sure that you are probably correct, I just don't understand. Can anyone shed some light on this?

Cartman

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah sorry i didn't mean to jump on you. Anyway, with 10 outs against a J your about 60-40. However, betting gives you some leverage on later streets. You might be able to fold, or he might fear a turn C/R and give you a free card. If you check to an ace, it's almost always betting. If you know you're not getting raised by an ace, you would rather bet than call a bet, as you are more likely to get a free turn or showdown from a weak ace. Also, lets say it checks around to whoever is in last position, they definitly might fire this flop with a K-10 type hand, which yo don't want because if forces you to make a move on later streets as opposed to just keeping the lead in the hand.