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Calculating Main pot vs Side pot EV
hi all
I apologise if this has been covered lately, but I couldn't find a relevant thread in the archives, so I come cap in hand to the most reliable forum on the internet for guidance. blinds 600/1200. player X moves in for 8k... random fool calls for 8k, and has 8k behind. My stack is 30k (my intention is to re-raise, and build a side pot vs the guy who smooth called with 8k behind) Now, I figure that my equity in the main pot would be 34.2% (this is just based on pokerstove) and my equity in the side pot would be 56.6% now..this is what I came up with if I fold.. i obviously have 30k If i jam, and the other guy calls... I have 14k if i lose If I win I have 14k + (0.342*25,800) + (0.566*16,000).. which gives me an overall EV of $31,889.20 this is bigger then $30k, so this is a clear call apparently.. but is this the correct calculation? I was thinking maybe you needed to do it a bit different, and work out the overall permutations.. ie If i call and lose both pots I have x If I call and win the side pot and the main pot i have x If I call and lose the main pot I have x If I call and win both pots I have x the probability of each x occuring is y, so you multiply each corresponding value of x by their 'y'.. and THAT is the correct way to do it. ( I dont know, maybe this gets the same numbers as the way I did it?!) I apologise for the simplistic nature of this question, and any comments on this would be really really welcome kindest regards Ekky |
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