Calculating Main pot vs Side pot EV
 

hi all

I apologise if this has been covered lately, but I couldn't find a relevant thread in the archives, so I come cap in hand to the most reliable forum on the internet for guidance.

blinds 600/1200. player X moves in for 8k... random fool calls for 8k, and has 8k behind. My stack is 30k

(my intention is to re-raise, and build a side pot vs the guy who smooth called with 8k behind)

Now, I figure that my equity in the main pot would be 34.2%
(this is just based on pokerstove)

and my equity in the side pot would be 56.6%

now..this is what I came up with

if I fold.. i obviously have 30k

If i jam, and the other guy calls... I have 14k if i lose

If I win I have 14k + (0.342*25,800) + (0.566*16,000).. which gives me an overall EV of $31,889.20

this is bigger then $30k, so this is a clear call apparently.. but is this the correct calculation? I was thinking maybe you needed to do it a bit different, and work out the overall permutations.. ie

If i call and lose both pots I have x
If I call and win the side pot and the main pot i have x
If I call and lose the main pot I have x
If I call and win both pots I have x

the probability of each x occuring is y, so you multiply each corresponding value of x by their 'y'.. and THAT is the correct way to do it. ( I dont know, maybe this gets the same numbers as the way I did it?!)

I apologise for the simplistic nature of this question, and any comments on this would be really really welcome

kindest regards

Ekky

Re: Calculating Main pot vs Side pot EV
 

Let me start by making sure I have the accounting correct. Right now there is $17,800 in the pot and it is $8,000 to you. You are considering raising $22,000 (all in). If both other players call, there will be $49,800 in the main pot and $28,000 in a side pot. You have 0.342 chance of winning the main pot and 0.566 chance of winning the side pot.

This is all you need to know. You have broken it down into four cases, but your cases 2 and 4 are the same, while 3 should be lose the main pot and win the side.

If you muliplty out and add, you expect to rake in $32,880 from the pot.