Re: AK pairs on scary board. Lots of action, what do I do?
I would certainly cap here, as there is a reasonable chance of knocking out UTG. I think you are decently behind at this point, but probably have around 15-25% equity. Factor in the chance it gets capped anyways when UTG gets trapped in the pot, and I think the extra equity you buy from UTG may be worth it. I can't see you getting away from this hand easily on the turn UI, so I don't really know how I fell about leading a blank turn. Against some passive opponents, a flop cap and turn check can actually buy a free look at the river from better hands, as they will often fear a c/r. I would want solid specific postflop reads before doing this, but if I knew both opponents were very passive, and could be scared into calldown mode easily, and I knew that button would not 3-bet the flop with a hand I beat, I might check the turn, expecting to see it check through often. (I would also need to comfortable enough with my reads to check-fold the river if button bet the turn, and I did not hit my straight on the river).
|