Bet or check this river?

[crunchy1]

This is nitpicky but, I think correct - please correct me if I'm wrong.

Hero has not put 50% of the money into the pot so far - this is my reasoning why the bet does not need to work exactly >= 50% of the time. This also doesn't take into account the times Villian folds a better hand, the times Hero folds to a c/r, etc... It's probably close - but I don't quite think it's exactly 50%.