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#11
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Villains stats after 75 hands suggest he only will checkraise here with strong hands. 75 hands, although small, is probably sufficient enough information to allow us to make such a fold. Thats why in my first post I noted that Hero should observe what villain will checkraise and bets with in case the Poker Tracker stats are misleading.
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#12
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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] You need very good reads [/ QUOTE ] Villain is 60/9/.36 after 75. Do we need a larger sample, or lower aggression? This guy seems really passive. I can't see what he's check-raising that we beat. I don't think he's bluff check-raising 10% of the time. [/ QUOTE ] True he probably isn't bluff check-raising, but from his stats we do know that Villain is an idiot. He might think he is slow playing a pair of aces. He doesn't think he is bluffing. |
#13
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[ QUOTE ]
Villains stats after 75 hands suggest he only will checkraise here with strong hands. 75 hands, although small, is probably sufficient enough information to allow us to make such a fold. Thats why in my first post I noted that Hero should observe what villain will checkraise and bets with in case the Poker Tracker stats are misleading. [/ QUOTE ] I'm not sure how much these stats tells us. We have only 75 hands. He's aggressive preflop and since he's playing 60% an af of 0.35 isn't awfully low (even though I agree it's low). There's no reasonable hand check/raising this river that we beat, but our opponent obviously isn't reasonable judging from the number of hands he play. I don't think the af is an appropriate way of meassuring how likely a player is to be making a strange bluff and in my experience a player with these stats are more likely to be making a weird bluff than many others. I've also seen players like this check/raising AQ/AT here. I'm most often paying off this river, but I think it's pretty close. What would be really bad though is to check this river through, since the river bet clearly has value. |
#14
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i could never fold that. there are plenty of hands i could fold there but top pair top kicker against a total nut isn't one of them.
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#15
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So no one is worried about the flush here?
psw |
#16
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[ QUOTE ]
So no one is worried about the flush here? psw [/ QUOTE ] Of course it's a concern, but you only need to be ahead ~10%. The question isn't really how often he has a flush, but how often he's capable of representing it by bluffing or raising a weaker ace. |
#17
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[ QUOTE ]
If you can't call a river checkraise, why not take a free showdown? [/ QUOTE ] This is a bad way of thinking that I hear a lot from opponents in live games as high as 20/40 and 30/60. The reason we bet is because there's value here. Not betting, in fact, is HORRIBLE poker. This kind of straightforward river value-betting is one of the single-most important factors in distinguishing solid-winning from break-even type players. |
#18
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[ QUOTE ]
He's aggressive preflop and since he's playing 60% an af of 0.35 isn't awfully low [/ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] there are plenty of hands i could fold there but top pair top kicker against a total nut isn't one of them. [/ QUOTE ] This player is loose passive, period. A 9% pfr% doesn't suggest aggression. OP has seen him take 45 flops and has noticed nothing to increase the likelihood of a bluff check-raise here. Yes, folding will lose a pot once in a while, but you have to draw the line somewhere, or else you have a leak. What numbers are needed to fold here? |
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