Poll: Calling standards on bubble when BB will be all in next hand.

[Nicok7]

Note that if shortstack somehow survives you are all in next time the blinds come back. I call with KK JJ and AK for sure, all hands where I might have the opponnent dominated, and could also triple up sometimes, or convice bully to let me breath next round, thus giving me some chances to end up first.

[tigerite]

Somehow survives the BB and SB? Not likely. Sorry but calling AK here is a huge leak of chips, the -EV is probably something sick.

If you call this with AKo, your bubble play sucks. Period. JJ is better but still a pretty clear fold.

[Nicok7]

JJ will most likely be a 2/1 favorite, AK will quiet often have raiser dominated.
I can see the point for folding, haven't done the ICM but I do believe making a stand now with premium hands is not that bad. AA KK QQ and AKs are definitly calling hands for me. AKo and JJ will make me cringe but I will most likely call.

[tigerite]

[ QUOTE ]
JJ will most likely be a 2/1 favorite, AK will quiet often have raiser dominated.
I can see the point for folding, haven't done the ICM but I do believe making a stand now with premium hands is not that bad. AA KK QQ and AKs are definitly calling hands for me. AKo and JJ will make me cringe but I will most likely call.

[/ QUOTE ]

66% favourite isn't enough in this spot. But ok keep playing like this, and please sit at my table.

[Nicok7]

Since I tok the time to give reasons for my play, would you like to explain why I am wrong, since forum is an exchange of information

Or should I just take your word for the truth due to you being my elder on this forum? [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[tigerite]

Because UTG is on 60 chips.. and worrying about him surviving SB and BB and then you not getting a hand good enough in the SB or BB yourself is not going to happen even 1% of the time. It shouldn't enter the equation at all, so it's a simple chip equity equation using ICM.. therefore use SNGPT, or whatever, and you'll see it's a clear fold..

[Ixnert]

[ QUOTE ]
JJ will most likely be a 2/1 favorite, AK will quiet often have raiser dominated.
I can see the point for folding, haven't done the ICM but I do believe making a stand now with premium hands is not that bad. AA KK QQ and AKs are definitly calling hands for me. AKo and JJ will make me cringe but I will most likely call.

[/ QUOTE ]

As someone else pointed out earlier in the thread, you need to be something like an 80% favorite to make this an ICM-correct call. With AK, that means you would have to be SURE that you had the raiser dominated (since you're about a 4:1 favorite in such situations). Since raiser will certainly be playing pairs (and, frankly, could be playing absolutely anything, which means you have to average in lots of hands you're only about a 2:1 favorite over), you're not an aggregate 80% favorite, not even close.

AA, KK, and I might momentarily consider playing queens. Anything else and you apparently hate money.

[jackaaron]

I have absolutely no problem sounding weaker than weak when I say I would fold them all. Yes, even KK. The guy putting me all in could have an ace, and hit it. I've placed in the money so many times in sng's that I feel my strategy on this is right, but I wouldn't disagree AT ALL with someone that would say he would call with every single hand you just spoke of. In fact, I encourage him. Why?
Example:
Last night, I'm in the BB with 750 (down to three of us, so I'm in the money). SB has roughly 3K, and the button has around 10k (PS starts with 1500 stacks, and 9 people).

Anyhow, the button raises what would put me all in with KJ suited. The SB calls the raise. We're at 400/800, so I think, let them do battle (side note, I would have called had the SB not called). Long story short, the SB goes out and I've got even more money. Couldn't come back on the big stack though. So, I generally make money because of the players that feel that they are "playing to win."

Again, I don't want to seem like I think other people's way is wrong. It most definitely is not. I'm just putting my opinion in.

[Nicok7]

Don't get me wrong I don't "play to win", I play to maximize return and hourly rate, wich in most cases means shoot for first, but obvously not in instances were there is a very short stack and a very huge one, were placing is obviously your first priority. My first instinct tells me against folding premium hands in the bubble, that might be something I have to review since ICM seems (haven't checked the math, but am sure it s been done correctly) to indicate a clear fold.