SDM's 7CS4AP Questions Thread

[Hamlet]

There are a number of reasons to play an Ace high 3-flush against a probable pair of split Kings.

1. There is already some money in the pot. Since you're only a 40%/60% dog or so, you need to get your share of that money. You should be more inclined to play this hand in a high ante game than in a low ante game.

2. Your opponent may not actually have the Kings. If your opponent is raising a hand like 66K, you should definately play.

3. Your opponent must worry about you having a pair of Aces. If you re-raise coming in, and you make a running pair on board, will your opponent call you down with just Kings? If they will release a hand thinking you have Aces up, you should definately re-raise. If they won't release, you're going to do very well when you actually have Aces in this situation.

In a low ante game with people who generally have the hand they are representing, it could be right to fold this hand. The question then becomes: Why are you sitting in this crappy tight-ass rock garden?

[sexdrugsmoney]

Thanks guys, interesting responses there, definate food for thought.

5) More discussion on calling versus raising pg 57

On this page, they say if you have (55)K and an A before you raises, if a Q is behind you, re-raise to knock the Q out and get you heads up with the probable A.

But then they say if you really do have Kings (5K)K ...

[ QUOTE ]
It is now not nearly as important to knock someone out because if your first opponent has aces you still have to make at least two pair to win. Now the player with the queens will have to catch a third one to beat you. Notice that we have described a situation where you would want to knock out the player behind you if you only have a pair of fives, but would be willing to let him play if you have a pair of kings. As you can see, seven-card stud can be a very complex game.

[/ QUOTE ]

I see the logic behind this, truly I do. The Queens are an underdog to your kings and are forced to improve, but at the same time if you are up against Aces then you are also an underdog and need to improve.

Therefore isn't it better to raise anyway to increase your % chances against the Ace heads up, and/or if the Queen doesn't believe you and comes in then there's just more dead money in the pot anyway? (or the original A may not have it and fold if the Q was to re-raise ... but then you'd feel sick)

Thoughts?

[soultwist]

If you have the 55K, you need to get the queens out. Say you make TT55K, you were able to catch-up on the aces but if the Q's makes QQ77 you lose. Hen you have 5KK, then you make your 2 pair KKxx you don't care about the Q's or if they make their 2 pair. In a normal situation you would want to get heads up here, yes. But because we suspect that our K's can't win without the improvement it changes things.

Also, Raising to knock the Q's out is a play that won't work on a lot of the lower level players.

[bobman0330]

Some 2dimes numbers to illustrate the situation:
A2A vs. QQT vs. K5K
48 vs. 22 vs. 30
A2A vs. K5K
65 vs. 35

A2A vs. QQT vs. 55K
47 vs. 27 vs. 25
A2A vs. 55K
65 vs. 35

Knocking out the queens when you have kings only increases your winning chance by 5 percent, from 30 to 35 (17% increase) (this is the time when you improve to Ks up, As do not improve, and the Qs improve to trips, or a few analogous situations, basically whenever your hand is exactly 2nd best, and the Qs win).

When you have the 5s, knocking out the queens improves your winning chances 10%, from 25% to 35% (a 40% increase).

Ummm, any consideration of actually FOLDING? I mean, as another poster stated, you're only 35% to win. And if he makes Aces Up, and you hit two pair, you lose lots of bets. You should probably only chase if one or two aces are dead.

Ummm, any consideration of actually FOLDING? I mean, as another poster stated, you're only 35% to win. And if he makes Aces Up, and you hit two pair, you lose lots of bets. You should probably only chase if one or two aces are dead. [ QUOTE ]


[/ QUOTE ]

[sexdrugsmoney]

[ QUOTE ]
Some 2dimes numbers to illustrate the situation:
A2A vs. QQT vs. K5K
48 vs. 22 vs. 30
A2A vs. K5K
65 vs. 35

A2A vs. QQT vs. 55K
47 vs. 27 vs. 25
A2A vs. 55K
65 vs. 35

Knocking out the queens when you have kings only increases your winning chance by 5 percent, from 30 to 35 (17% increase) (this is the time when you improve to Ks up, As do not improve, and the Qs improve to trips, or a few analogous situations, basically whenever your hand is exactly 2nd best, and the Qs win).

When you have the 5s, knocking out the queens improves your winning chances 10%, from 25% to 35% (a 40% increase).

[/ QUOTE ]

That is a facinating set of data there, but regarding raising to knock out Queens when you have Kings, a quote from Bob Stupak springs to mind something to the effect of "If the richest man in the world played long enough in a casino with only a small house edge he would eventually go broke". (horribly misquoted)

Now I know the ramifications of this quote are more severe than if you did/didn't raise to get the Queens out when you held Kings, but surely the principle applies?

That 5% extra has to be +EV doesn't it? OR is it actually -EV since by knocking the Queens out your giving the Aces a 12% edge? (Aces 48% against your 30% if the Queens are in - advantage = 18% the Aces. The Aces have over you compared to a 30% edge with 65% over your 35% if you are heads up with the Kings - advantage = 30% the Aces. / difference 18%)

As I've stated numerous times, my maths is bad so if all that % over you etc stuff is incorrect, do me a favour and straighten me out. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Cheers,
SDM

[fnord_too]

The 5% edge you get by knocking the queens out I don't believe makes up for the extra money the queens put in the pot. I would need to do some deep thinking and math to really come up with a robust answer to your question. I don't think that if you know for sure that the A is paired it is right to play on, but it may be. Also, it looks like the Q folding is good for the queen in terms of EV, and good for the A in terms of EV, so that means it has to be bad for you. (It may, in fact, not be good for the A, but I think it is.) I would want to do a lot of math before I had any confidence in my result. I am guess that the three authors of 7CSFAP have done the math, and probably did it correctly, so I would go with thier advice until I had numbers to back up an alternative.

[bobman0330]

If the first raiser shows you another ace, then sure, fold. If you think he's bluffing or raising a 3-flush often enough, you can't lay down the kings, (and often not the 5s).

The point behind this example is to elucidate the key point of how different hands gain or lose equity HU v. multiway and why. As they say, in order to be best played HU, a hand doesn't have to be all that good, it just has to do better HU. That example shows one hand that does much better HU and one that does hardly better at all.

[MarkGritter]

[ QUOTE ]

That 5% extra has to be +EV doesn't it? OR is it actually -EV since by knocking the Queens out your giving the Aces a 12% edge? (Aces 48% against your 30% if the Queens are in - advantage = 18% the Aces. The Aces have over you compared to a 30% edge with 65% over your 35% if you are heads up with the Kings - advantage = 30% the Aces. / difference 18%)

[/ QUOTE ]

Think about it in terms of pot sizes. In a full $5/$10 game with $0.50 antes and $2 bring-in there is already $11 in the pot.

If you call with kings and the queens call there is now $21 in the pot. If everyone puts in one bet until the end, the total will be $21 + $15 + $30 + $30 + $30 = $126, so your 30% expectation is about $37 (a net loss of $3, so you obviously don't want to call to the end UI if you are sure you're up against aces.) But, if you raise (and the ace just calls) the pot will be $26 + $10 + $20 + $20 + $20 = $96, your expectation is $33, a net loss of $12. An increase of 5% in the smaller pot is not worth it.

(Obviously this is a very crude estimate since you or your opponents will fold early sometimes and get in a raise other times.)

Now look at the numbers with 5's. Your share when leaving the queens in is 25% of $126, or $31.50. But by driving the queens out you get 35% of $96, or $33.60.

However, in this case it costs you $5 extra to get the extra $1.90 in equity so it is not so clearly a winning move--- but the odds will change dramatically on the next street or two, so you can usually fold or continue with improved odds.

For example, if you hit your K right away, then Q's equity is still about 10-15%, sometimes enough to take another card. (If the QQ has three to a straight flush on 4th her equity could be as high as 25% and you'll really have wished she was out of the pot--- particularly as you are OOP and won't be able to force her to call a double bet.)

The real win, of course, is those times then you're not actually up against a pair of aces and you've knocked out a bigger pair!