I don't wanna raise... QJs UTG

[cold_cash]

[ QUOTE ]
I think that leading the turn would be wrong here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I aqree.

I'm torn on the flop action though. I can see reasons for both betting and check-raising. I admit I would have most likely bet right out with the hopes of stuffing more bets in.

On the other hand, the pot's pretty big and a check-raise might maximize our chances.

[cold_cash]

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I don't like the idea of being forced to lead the turn when I whiff on the flush draw, especially if I don't get it heads up.

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So then don't. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[damaniac]

This is why being in position rules and being out of position sucks. Three-betting is generally better because as long as some of the initial callers call our 3-bet, we're getting value. This value probably offsets those times when we "give away our hand" by checking the turn. As it is, some less intelligent opponents will be confused by our 3-bet/check and check behind giving us a free card. Even when we give away our hand, we will often get paid off because, you know, it's just 1 more bet and the pot is so huge. And no, don't lead the turn UI unless you are HU and you think this particular opponent will fold a reasonable amount of the time.

[otnemem]

I don't like three-betting preflop because you run the risk of driving out callers between you and the original raiser. I know it's not likely on Party 2-4, but if someone called there with a weak pair, they might think better and muck. Then you lose value if your draw comes through. I think my thinking on flush draws is way off, because I don't mind wasting a few bets if I miss. I'm more concerned with setting up the biggest possible paydirt if it connects.

[chief444]

I can give you a reason why I like a check/raise.

Lets say on average with the check/raise you win the pot ~ 8% more (equivalent to "cleaning up" 1-1.5 outs). It will probably increase you're chance of showing down the best hand by 5-6% or so I'm estimating but it will also give you a chance to win unimproved on the turn at times. We'll assume the pot size stays the same (since you'll likely lose callers but each player including yourself is putting in more bets) and if you play this for the flush draw only your equity is ~ 40% (about the equivalent of 10-11 outs including a few for the overs and not quite a full 9 for the flush).

Expectation not check/raising: .40*7.75BB = 3.1 BB's
Expectation check/raising: .48*7.75 = 3.72 BB's

3.72-3.1 = .62 BB's > 1 SB extra you just paid.

If you still get a bunch of coldcallers that's not necesarily bad.

Now say if you bet out and it gets raised and you end up getting in a few extra SB's in there. We'll still say the 40% equity is good although it probably isn't really when you get raised but maybe close and I ignored the chance of a 3-bet for when we check/raise so we'll leave the 40 alone here:

Expectation bet to pump draw: .40*9.25 = 3.7 BB's

Rough assumptions but it looks to me like betting is close to check/raising and I think either is better than the line hero took but I think if anything's underestimated in my quick math here it's the chance of winning the pot unimproved with no showdown by check/raising.

[feelixthegreek]

For the record, I address the checking option in the very next sentence. Give me some credit.

[SeaEagle]

[ QUOTE ]
Rough assumptions but it looks to me like betting is close to check/raising and I think either is better than the line hero took

[/ QUOTE ]
This is the crux of the hand. There are two valid ways to play this hand, neither of which the OP took. Without spending much time on your math, I would be surprised if it's not pretty accurate and the EV between C/R and betting out is about equal.

So really it comes down to personal style: Are you more comfortable c/ring and trying to win the pot UI with outs if people stay in, or would you rather build a pot and hope you make your draw?

[cold_cash]

[ QUOTE ]
For the record, I address the checking option in the very next sentence. Give me some credit.

[/ QUOTE ]

You got it.

All I'm saying is that the pot's big and I have a lot of opponents. I'm not too concerned with deception.

Also, most of those opponents won't have a clue/care what you have no matter how you play it.

[jskills]

[ QUOTE ]
Slight hijack/easy question (I hope): If you can limp with QJs from EP, does that mean you should limp preflop with any suited broadway from any position?

[/ QUOTE ]

Personally, I prefer open raising with KQs and KJs from any position. In early postion, QJs is a limp for me usually.

[jskills]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Normally with a pre-flop raiser, you can easily check raise, but given his position, if it is checked to him and you check raise, you could lose everyone else.


[/ QUOTE ]

you don't think the pot is big enough where we should protect our Q and J outs?

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting thought. Obviously, I hadn't considered that. Given the preflop raiser, our Q or J outs could be non-outs though (vs. AA, KK, QQ, JJ, AQ, and AJ) - we're really looking at AK or a pocket pair TT on down to be happy about Q or J outs right?

I guess when the 4 flush hits on the flop, I'd like to see as many people putting as much money in the pot as possible, because I'm seeing the flush as the best way to win. Am I flawed in my thinking here?