Two Plus Two Older Archives  

Go Back   Two Plus Two Older Archives > Internet Gambling > Internet Gambling
FAQ Community Calendar Today's Posts Search

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 01-14-2005, 07:05 AM
shandrakor shandrakor is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 67
Default Need help calculating EV of wierd sticky bonus...

Phoenician is offering me three different sticky bonuses, but they all also require wagering non-sticky money before withdrawing.

Bonus 1: Deposit $100, Bonus $100. WR is $2000 on each.
Bonus 2: Deposit $600, Bonus $300. WR is $12k and $6k.
Bonus 3: Deposit $3200, Bonus $800. WR is $64k and $16k.

Here's the math as I see it:
Bonus 1 - I get $100 bonus, I wager the full amount on Don't Pass in craps. 49.2% chance of $200, 50.8% chance of $0. The $100 wager is not deducted from WR because Craps and Roulette are disallowed. Is there a better wager to make that on?

In both cases, I wager $2000 in the regular money account, EV -(2000x.003606), EV -7.21. Same -EV in the bonus account.

If I win the doubling bet, after WR, I should have $197.79, of which I can transfer 97.79 to real money. I don't know how to do the math on the recursion of continued doubling in the bonus account, though.

Overall EV (without recursion)
-7.21 (real money account)
45.65 (bonus - .492 x 92.79)
= 38.44

Does that math look right to people? Can anyone help me find my true EV after possible recursion in the bonus account?

I want to check my math on the largest deposit too, since that one's more important.

Real account gets 3200, WR $64k x .003606 = -230.78
Bonus account, if doubled, loses $57.70 from WR (16k x .003606)

EV without recursion:
-230.78 (real account)
365.21 (bonus, 742.30 x .492)
= 134.43

Doesn't seem like an awful lot of EV for such a great chance of significant loss. I'm really hoping that additional recursion in the bonus account will make that last one look a lot nicer than it does right now...

Thanks in advance!
Reply With Quote
  #2  
Old 01-14-2005, 02:30 PM
shandrakor shandrakor is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 67
Default Re: Need help calculating EV of wierd sticky bonus...

bump
Reply With Quote
  #3  
Old 01-14-2005, 02:35 PM
bonanz bonanz is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Posts: 16
Default Re: Need help calculating EV of wierd sticky bonus...

this type of bonus has been discussed on BW a lot, search their forums. also you can transfer 50$ over the bonus amount from your bonus to your real account. so you can make smaller bets and transfer to your real money account in 50$ incerements.
Reply With Quote
  #4  
Old 01-14-2005, 02:39 PM
shandrakor shandrakor is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 67
Default Re: Need help calculating EV of wierd sticky bonus...

Thanks, I'll check that out
Reply With Quote
Reply


Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 12:25 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.