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-   -   Need help calculating EV of wierd sticky bonus... (http://archives2.twoplustwo.com/showthread.php?t=176903)

shandrakor 01-14-2005 07:05 AM

Need help calculating EV of wierd sticky bonus...
 
Phoenician is offering me three different sticky bonuses, but they all also require wagering non-sticky money before withdrawing.

Bonus 1: Deposit $100, Bonus $100. WR is $2000 on each.
Bonus 2: Deposit $600, Bonus $300. WR is $12k and $6k.
Bonus 3: Deposit $3200, Bonus $800. WR is $64k and $16k.

Here's the math as I see it:
Bonus 1 - I get $100 bonus, I wager the full amount on Don't Pass in craps. 49.2% chance of $200, 50.8% chance of $0. The $100 wager is not deducted from WR because Craps and Roulette are disallowed. Is there a better wager to make that on?

In both cases, I wager $2000 in the regular money account, EV -(2000x.003606), EV -7.21. Same -EV in the bonus account.

If I win the doubling bet, after WR, I should have $197.79, of which I can transfer 97.79 to real money. I don't know how to do the math on the recursion of continued doubling in the bonus account, though.

Overall EV (without recursion)
-7.21 (real money account)
45.65 (bonus - .492 x 92.79)
= 38.44

Does that math look right to people? Can anyone help me find my true EV after possible recursion in the bonus account?

I want to check my math on the largest deposit too, since that one's more important.

Real account gets 3200, WR $64k x .003606 = -230.78
Bonus account, if doubled, loses $57.70 from WR (16k x .003606)

EV without recursion:
-230.78 (real account)
365.21 (bonus, 742.30 x .492)
= 134.43

Doesn't seem like an awful lot of EV for such a great chance of significant loss. I'm really hoping that additional recursion in the bonus account will make that last one look a lot nicer than it does right now...

Thanks in advance!

shandrakor 01-14-2005 02:30 PM

Re: Need help calculating EV of wierd sticky bonus...
 
bump

bonanz 01-14-2005 02:35 PM

Re: Need help calculating EV of wierd sticky bonus...
 
this type of bonus has been discussed on BW a lot, search their forums. also you can transfer 50$ over the bonus amount from your bonus to your real account. so you can make smaller bets and transfer to your real money account in 50$ incerements.

shandrakor 01-14-2005 02:39 PM

Re: Need help calculating EV of wierd sticky bonus...
 
Thanks, I'll check that out


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