Need help calculating EV of wierd sticky bonus...
Phoenician is offering me three different sticky bonuses, but they all also require wagering non-sticky money before withdrawing.
Bonus 1: Deposit $100, Bonus $100. WR is $2000 on each. Bonus 2: Deposit $600, Bonus $300. WR is $12k and $6k. Bonus 3: Deposit $3200, Bonus $800. WR is $64k and $16k. Here's the math as I see it: Bonus 1 - I get $100 bonus, I wager the full amount on Don't Pass in craps. 49.2% chance of $200, 50.8% chance of $0. The $100 wager is not deducted from WR because Craps and Roulette are disallowed. Is there a better wager to make that on? In both cases, I wager $2000 in the regular money account, EV -(2000x.003606), EV -7.21. Same -EV in the bonus account. If I win the doubling bet, after WR, I should have $197.79, of which I can transfer 97.79 to real money. I don't know how to do the math on the recursion of continued doubling in the bonus account, though. Overall EV (without recursion) -7.21 (real money account) 45.65 (bonus - .492 x 92.79) = 38.44 Does that math look right to people? Can anyone help me find my true EV after possible recursion in the bonus account? I want to check my math on the largest deposit too, since that one's more important. Real account gets 3200, WR $64k x .003606 = -230.78 Bonus account, if doubled, loses $57.70 from WR (16k x .003606) EV without recursion: -230.78 (real account) 365.21 (bonus, 742.30 x .492) = 134.43 Doesn't seem like an awful lot of EV for such a great chance of significant loss. I'm really hoping that additional recursion in the bonus account will make that last one look a lot nicer than it does right now... Thanks in advance! |
Re: Need help calculating EV of wierd sticky bonus...
bump
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Re: Need help calculating EV of wierd sticky bonus...
this type of bonus has been discussed on BW a lot, search their forums. also you can transfer 50$ over the bonus amount from your bonus to your real account. so you can make smaller bets and transfer to your real money account in 50$ incerements.
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Re: Need help calculating EV of wierd sticky bonus...
Thanks, I'll check that out
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