How Would You Play This Hand?

[LA_Price]

I would reraise here and make it 15000 to go. I'd hate to lose my market here to a set or a straight if the board pairs. The problem with slowplaying is that when scare cards come i.e. board pairing or another spade you don't really know if you're now way behind or if you still have your opponent crushed. You've got a monster hand here and I wan't to play a monster pot.

[That guy]

The key here is that by the way he played this hand, I'm willing to bet that he does not have a set, 2 pair or the nut flush.

Kurn, I agree with you somewhat but it is certainly possible he had T8 or 88, in which case calling the flop and check/raising the turn would be quite reasonable...

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net net, I think a medium sized re-raise and a smooth call are both acceptable moves. a medium sized re-raise will gain information but this info is expensive... and you can still be bluffed out by the naked Ace[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] because if he holds it, your bet will look like what it is; a testing re-raise...

Given the fact that you have position, I prefer the smooth call... you could make more if you are ahead, you eliminate the risk of getting re-raised AND your opponent is likely a pretty good dog to draw out on you.

note that if the river comes with another spade or pairs the board, your opponent won't know what you smooth called with and will have a tough decision out of position unless that card is exactly right for him...

[Snoogins47]

[ QUOTE ]
I would reraise here and make it 15000 to go. I'd hate to lose my market here to a set or a straight if the board pairs. The problem with slowplaying is that when scare cards come i.e. board pairing or another spade you don't really know if you're now way behind or if you still have your opponent crushed. You've got a monster hand here and I wan't to play a monster pot.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wanting to play a monster pot isn't bad at all. But we have to realize here... raising gives him the opportunity to win a huge pot from you as well if he's got outs to beat you. If you call and he improves to a boat or the fourth spade hits, he's either going to make a "massive overbet for value," or bet a reasonably small amount. If you raise, he calls, and he improves to beat your flush, he's pushing, and you're calling and cursing your luck and heading to the side games.

If you're behind, or get drawn out on with a hand he's going to call a moderate re-raise with, you're losing a lot. If you're ahead, you're only going to make more by flat calling. If you're ahead, call, and get drawn out on, your stack is not gone.

The key here, I think, is that you have position on him, he's probably testing the waters with a hand that you almost certainly have beat. A re-raise will freeze up a hand that you have beat. If it's too big, you get no action except from when you're behind. If it's too small, you're just asking to lose your whole stack if he has the As or somesuch.

Like I said, calling will force him to commit a bet on the river the vast majority of the time. And the vast majority of the time, you have him crushed.

Don't forget: what card is he looking for? If he's got a small flush or a straight, he's going to be scared if the board pairs. If he doesn't have one specific card, he's going to be scared if the fourth spade comes. If the board stays safe, he's bound to push his marginal hand a lot harder, which is better for you, since you have it crushed.

The "scare cards" on the river could easily be just as scary for him, and you've got position on him.

I can't think of a really valid reason to show your strength in this hand on the turn, unless you bought into this tournament with a combination of rent and grocery money, and if you don't cash, it's off to the soup kitchen for you.

[disjunction]

So can we assume that the blind must be playing either a spade flush or semi-bluffing the ace of spades? If so, there are:

7 Ax made flushes
42 made flushes not involving the Ace of spades
46 Axo flush-draws

There is 18000 in the pot. Pushing all-in means the blind must fold a draw, and let's assume worst case he folds all lower made flushes. Then there is a ~93% chance he folds, a 7% chance he calls and beats you. There is 18000 in the pot, so expectation on an all-in bet is

(18000 x .93) - (35000 x .07) = + 14000

I don't know what the expectation is if the hero calls, but I should note the worst case should be worse because the opponent will have knowledge on the river of whether his Axo semi-bluff is good.

[David Sklansky]

Few or none of the responses have taken into acoount that the hand started out six handed or so.

[fsuplayer]

[ QUOTE ]
Few or none of the responses have taken into acoount that the hand started out six handed or so.

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in this unraised multiway pot. hero here could have any two and good player knows that,

yay, me. i was probably wrong about the rest though.

[mr_jmac]

Hey,

O.k you mentioned the pot was multiway but is your conclusion correct?

It is a 6 handed pot and the flop is T high with two spades. The button bets the pot. You state that the button could have any two. I don't think so. In 2 or 3 handed pot I could see a bluff bet on button but against 5 other players, no.

The good player in the BB probably puts hero on at least a pair. So, what kind of hands would a good player flat call a pot-sized bet on flop with? A flush draw makes sense. A weak ten, maybe. A6 or A2 are likely. A good player would probably fold 79 in this spot. How about a set, maybe? I think a good player would raise with a strong T or a flopped two pair.

After the turn that narrows the good players likely hand down to A6 or A2 with the ace of spades. T8. Or a flush.

Also, wouldn't a good player just call with the ace of spades so that he does not put himself in a position to be reraised on his nut flush draw?

I'm leaning towards T8 or a flush.

Now what should the hero do? I'm not sure.

Later,
JM

[mr_jmac]

By hitting you mean if your opponent hits the nut flush (i.e a 4th spade hits) or if he fills up (i.e board pairs).

Why must you lose all of your chips if tough player "hits?"

[ QUOTE ]
I think that you stand to lose more if you see a river card (in the long run) than you would gain. You can take down a 10K+ pot right now, or risk losing all of your chips if your opponent hits on the river.

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[CraigNYC]

By betting out 1200 on a draw, the player got himself in this predicament post-turn. Hitting the flush is his best-case scenario.

The BB could have anything. When he called the 1200 bet, rather than raising, I figure he had top pair or a straight/flush draw. He didn't hit 2 pair or a set on the flop. So after the turn he either hit a set, two pair, straight or flush.

By check-raising, though, the BB probably either has straight, baby flush, or a set of 8s and is looking for information. Or he has the nut flush and is getting nervous about losing to a full house. I could be wrong but I don't think the BB would check-raise just $2500 on a bluff or draw during tournament play.

So, player should re-raise and bump it to $5000 more. If BB calls watch the next card. If BB reraises, that really *should* put him on a nut flush. Fold and forget the 10K in chips that are lost that's that. But the $7500 spent on the re-raise is worth the investment, considering player does have the K-flush and there are no pairs on the board. I don't think I could lay down a K-flush just because of a $2500 check-raise. Reraising the check-raise seems like the only only option that could help the player at this point in the hand.

What I don't know is the signifigance of this being a 6-player hand originally. It seems like the BB could still have anything, A-3 of spades for example, regardless of how many limpers there were.

[grandgnu]

[ QUOTE ]
By hitting you mean if your opponent hits the nut flush (i.e a 4th spade hits) or if he fills up (i.e board pairs).

Why must you lose all of your chips if tough player "hits?"

[ QUOTE ]
I think that you stand to lose more if you see a river card (in the long run) than you would gain. You can take down a 10K+ pot right now, or risk losing all of your chips if your opponent hits on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

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Alright, maybe not ALL of your chips, but if he makes a bet after a scare card hits the river then you either fold and lose a pot you would have won on the turn, or you call and lose some more chips if he's got the hand because you played weak and let him outdraw you.