QTs in BB, scare card

[fearme]

if u do call fold if u dont improve on river unless ur against maniacs

[zephed56]

Hero called the turn raise and check/folded the turn unimproved. So did the other fish.
Villain takes down pot without a showdown.

Of course I had that fishy urge to call down the river...

I was not sure if I shoulda just folded right there on the turn. I really have to work on playing tighter postflop, and not worrying about looking silly when you fold to a raise on the same betting round. I'm a pretty aggressive player, but I know there are a lot of loose calls that I make.

Thanks for all the heated discussion, it was good. I will be revisiting it in the future.

[naphand]

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I thought I made my point, I mentioned the hands you are likely up against.

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Well actually, this was your post:

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no way do you have 9 outs. You are drawing dead most times.

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He is not drawing dead, at worst he is drawing against a flush draw (which has not hit yet) or 3 outs to a split pot. This is not drawing dead. It is bad/likely enough to make folding the better option, if true.

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What is the best possible result for you? A king? might be sharing the pot.
A queen? you could be sharing or behind (2 overcards to your kicker)

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I do not see any mention of cards here, nor a rationale for why this person has these hands, other than a "he raised so he must have the nuts" thinking style. Weak-tight.

In your first post you said:

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Too many hands beat you here KTo, 2 pair, any Ace pair. Even if you do improve MP might be on a flush draw and you could improve and lose.

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You go straight away for the only big had you fear, KTo. That's a pretty strong read for one raise and precious little info on UTG's game. Did you list and consider the other hands UTG might be playing? That is necessary for a balance of probabilities. 2-pair is a real possibility, of course, you give this a passing mention but fail to consider the fact that Hero has 6 outs to improve past 2-pair, and the odds to draw to it. This is important, as it then requires us to think about MP; if MP is on the flush draw then Hero's outs are tainted and this more than anything else, is what pushes us to recommend a fold. However, this is still a bit weak-tight, there is not enough of a read on MP to put him on a flush draw, it is just one of several hands he would call along with. If you put cold-callers on flush draws every time you see a 2-suited flop, you will miss a lot of EV.

Advice based on putting your opponents on the strongest hands/draws is weak-tight. It is also incomplete and unhelpful from a learning perspective. Without correcting this habit you will struggle in more aggressive games and/or higher limits. You are also quite possibly also giving up EV in this school.

[helpmeout]

You can call me weak tight as much as you like this is a troubled hand.

I'll wait for a better situation where I am ahead or drawing to a good hand where I will get paid off.

BTW how can I accurately put people on hands with such little information. All I know is that the 2 players are loose/passive preflop so I will assume they are loose passive postflop.

Most passive players bet hands better than a pair on the turn. Raising with someone still to act means this guy has something good, with little reads and a dangerous board I drop this pretty fast.

[maxpowers21]

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no way do you have 9 outs

You are drawing dead most times.

What is the best possible result for you? A king? might be sharing the pot.

A queen? you could be sharing or behind (2 overcards to your kicker)

When you are ahead you wont collect much and when you are behind you are way behind and pay off a lot.

Easy fold

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You do realize that he still has 3 outs to the nuts. ie.. not drawing dead.

[naphand]

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BTW how can I accurately put people on hands with such little information.

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Ummm...I think this was the point I was making.

Given the ultra-soft nature of $1/$2 you can avoid difficult situations and only play when you have more of a hand, and still make a reasonable BB/100. This is however, pretty much the definition of weak-tight, never underestimate the power of denial.

The point was, your recommendation is over-simplified. Your reads were not good enough to put opponents strongly on hands and dumping a hand because the board looks scary is -EV. Yes, a raise here is quite possibly 2-pair, it could also be a straight or just a single paired A. Also, some of Hero's draws look tainted but he is still in reasonable shape with a middling pot and loose caller coming along to add value. We also have no real idea what MP has, he could be calling with a lot of hands and his cold call is nothing to fear, it just needs to be taken into consideration. What is certain is that Hero has enough outs to consider calling to see the River, he has the odds to do this on the Turn and is certain to pick up at least 1 more BB on the River. He is not relying on getting lots more $$ in on the River. This is a +EV in a large number of similar situations.

The hand is certainly worth closer inspection. If Hero had improved to just 2-pair on the River, he can check-call as he is ahead enough of the time to make this +EV, and he gets a bit of infomation on UTGs standards and post-flop play even when behind (which will be a lot of the time).

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You can call me weak tight as much as you like

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I'll wait for a better situation where I am ahead or drawing to a good hand

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You made the label yourself.

It is very typical of low-limit players to put opponents on very strong hands when they raise, when the board is scary. A lot of the time you will be right to do so against players with this kind of profile, so you are not giving up much by folding. I just think that categorically ruling out a call here is toooo weak, even for this game. If Hero is behind to 2-pair then he has good outs and odds to call UTG, that is beyond dispute. KTo and 2-pair/flush draw are pretty much the worst scenarios here, one of quite a few and the only ones which make it a clear fold. But you agree you cannot put the players hard on these hands. A set is also possible for UTG, 77 being the most probable, still Hero is drawing to 6 outs that will beat this. This is about UTG, but equally so MP as it is MP's hand that determines Hero's clean outs. How sure can you be he is drawing to a flush? The only thing you know is he is loose, and the board is 2-suited, that is not enough.

This is a tricky spot, and well done for posting it Zephed (and I loved the film, Slap Shot, by the way). It is close, and the profit is marginal, which is why I said folding is OK but a call would not be terrible. Tricky spots are rarely "obvious" one way or the other, they are if you are weak-tight.

[Mr. Graff]

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Cold calls from chooks gives you more reason to call. It's cold-calls from good players you need to worry about.

Yes, you do need to respect raises at $1/$2 from non-maniacs, but when you have odds to draw to a big hand, you should not be folding. Respecting a raise means calling 1 more bet (in such a circumstance where you have odds to draw a better hand) and check/folding the River unimproved.

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After subtracting the discount on many of those outs I don't like the odds. And when you hit you will be splitting a fair number of times.

[helpmeout]

Again with the weak-tight lol.

My point is that when you win the pot you fail to collect many bets because the board is scary.

You will collect 2BB on the river maximum, more like 1.

If you improve and lose you will probably lose 2BB on the river.

You will also tie so you collect half a bet if you are lucky.

It may be marginally +EV to call the turn assuming that there is no more betting action on the river. But on the river I think this is -EV because your implied odds suck and you will improve and lose a decent amount of the time.

If you do go for the check/call when you make 2 pair how can you be sure to make 1BB? do you think someone without a king is going to bet when a ten arrives? What if MP suddenly wakes up and raises you going to call 2?

[naphand]

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My point is that when you win the pot you fail to collect many bets because the board is scary.

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Nobody ever lost bets because the board was scary, they lose bets when their opponents make a hand, or they lose bets because they fold because the board is scary, when they should call/bet/raise.

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You will collect 2BB on the river maximum, more like 1.

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What are you talking about implied odds for? He has odds to call on the Turn. When he wins the River he collects the entire pot not just his River bet. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] Stop ranting about implied odds when Hero does not need them to justify his Turn call.

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It may be marginally +EV to call the turn assuming that there is no more betting action on the river.

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So now you are saying he should call the Turn? What happened to your implied odds? Your assumption here is there is no action when Hero makes a nut-straight, I would certainly expect UTG to call a River bet in those circumstances. If he makes trips he might even get raised and still win (only KT logically beats him now), the Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] is already out so he makes trips with no flush to worry about.

The response to any action on the River would depend on the card. He is not folding with the nut-straight, he can check-fold a raise from MP is the flush card falls, the only risk is making trip Qs and losing to KT. Making 2-pair and seeing bet/raise may be enough to warrant a fold.

Your logic is based on shadows of cards that you have neither seen or which have not been dealt. Hero has outs, he has outs to the nut hand, we are talking 1 BB to call and check/fold the River unimproved. Against loose passive players he is not going to get severely punished on the River. UTG is calling 1 bet on the River, MP will probably call with any trashy pair, and is very unlikely to bluff-raise a missed draw. A clear plan of action is what is needed, not a "what if something scary happens...I'm scared already" attitude. Aginst these players it is too easy to just dismiss them all as morons, or go the other way and give them credit for raises "against 2 players". They play their own hands, and they play garbage, they raise when they think they are ahead and only fold when they know they are certainly beaten.

What if UTG or MP was "Scoby the Robot". I think you have to call... [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[naphand]

This has to be considered, but 6 outs is enough here. MP won't be on a flush a lot (probably the large majority) of the time, so the discounts will not apply. If UTG has 2-pair he does not have a K, MP could have anything, a K is only one of many holdings so the K outs will be good enough times to make drawing to them good, he is drawing to the nut straight.

The overall feel I get from this, is that folding is probably the best play. I do not believe it is "obviously a fold" at all. Calling would not be a huge mistake with the plan of check-folding the River unimproved. No reads on my opponents also make me feel more like calling, particularly UTGs standards. I think a line of logic could be used to justify both folding or calling, with the weight of argument supporting a fold. It is the same kind of argument though, that makes people holding TP check the River when a 4-striaght appears. We need to analyse to be sure we are not just playing weakly (very often we are, especially considering the garbage these chooks will call with).