PFR and middle pair

Brain · #1 11-19-2005, 09:34 PM

BB was a little loose over a few hands and the poster had just sat back in. I have already gotten sucked out on a few times in the early stages of this session.

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (7 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. MP2 posts a blind of $2. CO posts a blind of $3.
1 fold, Hero raises, 1 fold, CO (poster) calls, 2 folds, BB calls.

Flop: (8 SB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, CO raises, BB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (6 BB) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero calls.

River: (8 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 10 BB

I hate getting passive like this and I know when to apply WA/WB, but sometimes I do it inappropriately too. Was this right?

Felipe · #2 11-19-2005, 09:40 PM

I think you lost the hand, and I play it the same.

edit-I may be inclined to bet the turn, don't want to give a free card to such a drawy board.

Brain · #3 11-19-2005, 09:46 PM

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I think you lost the hand, and I play it the same.

edit-I may be inclined to bet the turn, don't want to give a free card to such a drawy board.

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I'm not thrilled getting raised though. I don't see this as an easy bet/fold.

Aaron W. · #4 11-19-2005, 10:07 PM

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BB was a little loose over a few hands and the poster had just sat back in.

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If the poster just sat back in, what did you have on him before he sat out?

I don't mind this play. The pot is too big (and your outs too many) to bet-fold on the turn. You might check-fold the river if you have a decent read on villain being weak and not value betting as often as he should.

Brain · #5 11-19-2005, 10:15 PM

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BB was a little loose over a few hands and the poster had just sat back in.

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If the poster just sat back in, what did you have on him before he sat out?

I don't mind this play. The pot is too big (and your outs too many) to bet-fold on the turn. You might check-fold the river if you have a decent read on villain being weak and not value betting as often as he should.

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Nothing. This was my second orbit and he had been out the whole time so unfortunately nothing else to contribute in the way of reads.

#6 11-19-2005, 10:37 PM

I bet\fold the turn if the card is not a J or T.

I check\call, check\fold the river depending on villian.

I don't think you're good 12% of the time but IMO the deficit is made up for in info on the unknown.

Aaron W. · #7 11-19-2005, 10:40 PM

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I bet\fold the turn if the card is not a J or T.

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I thought about that, but hero would be getting 9:1 with 5 pretty clean outs. There's some worry about running into a flush, but I think it's pretty safely accounted for in the overlay already in the pot and the extra bet or two he picks up when he gets two pair or trips.

#8 11-20-2005, 02:06 AM

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[ QUOTE ]
I bet\fold the turn if the card is not a J or T.

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I thought about that, but hero would be getting 9:1 with 5 pretty clean outs. There's some worry about running into a flush, but I think it's pretty safely accounted for in the overlay already in the pot and the extra bet or two he picks up when he gets two pair or trips.

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I think ~4 outs is more realistic (probably even generous)as the Q (and 2pr) outs could already be dead. Given 4 outs you need 11:1 and only getting 9:1. You could say you're pretty much guaranteed 1 exta BB on the river but it still doesn't make up for the times Hero makes his hand and is still beaten.

Aaron W. · #9 11-20-2005, 02:15 AM

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I think ~4 outs is more realistic (probably even generous)as the Q (and 2pr) outs could already be dead. Given 4 outs you need 11:1 and only getting 9:1. You could say you're pretty much guaranteed 1 exta BB on the river but it still doesn't make up for the times Hero makes his hand and is still beaten.

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Imagining that a queen out is somehow dead is a bit MUBS-y to me. I don't give villain credit for a set this soon, and I certainly don't give him credit for KQ. I'll grant that AK is a possibility, but I would have expected that to 3-bet preflop, so I'm not so convinced that it's likely. Remember that we're assuming that the turn is *NOT* a jack or ten, so you're not worried about the straight falling if you hit your ace.

#10 11-20-2005, 02:36 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think ~4 outs is more realistic (probably even generous)as the Q (and 2pr) outs could already be dead. Given 4 outs you need 11:1 and only getting 9:1. You could say you're pretty much guaranteed 1 exta BB on the river but it still doesn't make up for the times Hero makes his hand and is still beaten.

[/ QUOTE ]

Imagining that a queen out is somehow dead is a bit MUBS-y to me. I don't give villain credit for a set this soon, and I certainly don't give him credit for KQ. I'll grant that AK is a possibility, but I would have expected that to 3-bet preflop, so I'm not so convinced that it's likely. Remember that we're assuming that the turn is *NOT* a jack or ten, so you're not worried about the straight falling if you hit your ace.

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I'm not giving villian credit for anything yet either but I think if he RAISES my turn bet I can start to discount my outs considerably.