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#1
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Royal Draw WSOP Main Event
Day 3 of the main event just got into the money. Not alot of info on villian other than he has me covered. table had been playing very tight. I have stolen some without any resistence. I have ~120K he has ~170K. Blinds 1K/2K 300 ante.
folded to me on the button I make it 5K with K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] only BB calls. Flop: Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] BB leads for 10K....I raise to 30K(?) He thinks a bit and makes it 60K more. Hero? |
#2
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Re: Royal Draw WSOP Main Event
bleh, i think i push, though looks like a set and you ahve no FE.
too good of a hand i think to fold here. |
#3
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Re: Royal Draw WSOP Main Event
push, if called your equity here is about 47% against this range:
QQ,TT,77,QTs,QTo equity (%) win (%) tie (%) Hand 1: 47.3232 % 47.32% 00.00% { KcJc } Hand 2: 52.6768 % 52.68% 00.00% { QQ, TT, 77, QTs, QTo } If he ever has AQ, AA, or other two pairs, your equity goes up. By pushing you probably fold an A high flush draw which is REALLY good. He probably isn't folding 77, but we can hope right? |
#4
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Re: Royal Draw WSOP Main Event
Villain's not folding the nut flush draw getting over 3 to 1 after Hero's push.
You can add 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] to Villains range too. Only one combination but wouldn't it be funny if he did and won it with the 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] on the river. |
#5
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Re: Royal Draw WSOP Main Event
This looks like a hand where all the money goes in on the flop and both people played it right.
You have ~ 90K left and the pot is ~100K. If you push, even assuming he calls every time, that's 90K to win 250K, and you have 42% equity against a set, 40%-42% against nut flush draw/nut flush draw + pair. Anything else, you're ahead. Calling and missing the turn sucks and you're still priced in, calling and hitting the turn might suck if you don't get paid off. Standard push, no? |
#6
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Re: Royal Draw WSOP Main Event
I was never calling his flop bet...should I have raised to like 50K instead? That way it commits me to the pot...no matter his move.
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#7
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Re: Royal Draw WSOP Main Event
Is WSOP going on right now or is just being televised now? Confused.
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#8
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Re: Royal Draw WSOP Main Event
[ QUOTE ]
Day 3 of the main event just got into the money. Not alot of info on villian other than he has me covered. table had been playing very tight. I have stolen some without any resistence. I have ~120K he has ~170K. Blinds 1K/2K 300 ante. folded to me on the button I make it 5K with K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] only BB calls. Flop: Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] BB leads for 10K....I raise to 30K(?) He thinks a bit and makes it 60K more. Hero? [/ QUOTE ] Hero regrets not calling the lead bet and taking a free card? If we put his range on: AA, KK, QQ, TT, 77, AQ, QT, T7s then we are a 51.6% favorite. If he sometimes has 98, J9, then we go up to 63.11%. If we add A7c we'll go down slightly (my program can't add exact suit cards to ranges so I'm not sure how much) and if we add all Axc we go down more. Seems like we should push. |
#9
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Re: Royal Draw WSOP Main Event
Did you tell TJ Cloutier about this hand after it happened? If so he wrote an article on it and I believe you were up against QQ.
But anyway, I push. EDIT: OK, probably wasn't you http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_maga...amp;m_id=65573 |
#10
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Re: Royal Draw WSOP Main Event
[ QUOTE ]
Did you tell TJ Cloutier about this hand after it happened? If so he wrote an article on it and I believe you were up against QQ. But anyway, I push. EDIT: OK, probably wasn't you http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_maga...amp;m_id=65573 [/ QUOTE ] I'm not sure I totally buy TJ's take here. Maybe it is my position naivete but you are being asked to call $3800 into a pot that is going to be $11600 + antes. If the raiser from the cutoff never pure-steals and always has a hand in the 55+, ATo+, A9s+ range then you are a 38.6% equity in the hand which is more then enough to call if this were to end the betting. And I think a number of people will steal raise from the cutoff with worse. I think you will often fit or fold this type of hand that will help you make up for the fact that you are OOP post-flop. I think it is a close call if you should raise/call/fold this type of hand here. I mean maybe I'm just proving TJs point that amature players like me don't value position enough, but I think I would often make that call. |
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