Royal Draw WSOP Main Event
 

Day 3 of the main event just got into the money. Not alot of info on villian other than he has me covered. table had been playing very tight. I have stolen some without any resistence. I have ~120K he has ~170K. Blinds 1K/2K 300 ante.

folded to me on the button I make it 5K with K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] only BB calls.

Flop: Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

BB leads for 10K....I raise to 30K(?) He thinks a bit and makes it 60K more. Hero?

Re: Royal Draw WSOP Main Event
 

bleh, i think i push, though looks like a set and you ahve no FE.

too good of a hand i think to fold here.

Re: Royal Draw WSOP Main Event
 

push, if called your equity here is about 47% against this range:

QQ,TT,77,QTs,QTo

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 47.3232 % 47.32% 00.00% { KcJc }
Hand 2: 52.6768 % 52.68% 00.00% { QQ, TT, 77, QTs, QTo }

If he ever has AQ, AA, or other two pairs, your equity goes up.

By pushing you probably fold an A high flush draw which is REALLY good.

He probably isn't folding 77, but we can hope right?

Re: Royal Draw WSOP Main Event
 

This looks like a hand where all the money goes in on the flop and both people played it right.

You have ~ 90K left and the pot is ~100K. If you push, even assuming he calls every time, that's 90K to win 250K, and you have 42% equity against a set, 40%-42% against nut flush draw/nut flush draw + pair. Anything else, you're ahead. Calling and missing the turn sucks and you're still priced in, calling and hitting the turn might suck if you don't get paid off.

Standard push, no?

Re: Royal Draw WSOP Main Event
 

Villain's not folding the nut flush draw getting over 3 to 1 after Hero's push.

You can add 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] to Villains range too. Only one combination but wouldn't it be funny if he did and won it with the 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] on the river.

Re: Royal Draw WSOP Main Event
 

I was never calling his flop bet...should I have raised to like 50K instead? That way it commits me to the pot...no matter his move.

Re: Royal Draw WSOP Main Event
 

Is WSOP going on right now or is just being televised now? Confused.

Re: Royal Draw WSOP Main Event
 

[ QUOTE ]
Day 3 of the main event just got into the money. Not alot of info on villian other than he has me covered. table had been playing very tight. I have stolen some without any resistence. I have ~120K he has ~170K. Blinds 1K/2K 300 ante.

folded to me on the button I make it 5K with K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] only BB calls.

Flop: Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

BB leads for 10K....I raise to 30K(?) He thinks a bit and makes it 60K more. Hero?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero regrets not calling the lead bet and taking a free card? If we put his range on:

AA, KK, QQ, TT, 77, AQ, QT, T7s then we are a 51.6% favorite. If he sometimes has 98, J9, then we go up to 63.11%. If we add A7c we'll go down slightly (my program can't add exact suit cards to ranges so I'm not sure how much) and if we add all Axc we go down more. Seems like we should push.

Re: Royal Draw WSOP Main Event
 

Did you tell TJ Cloutier about this hand after it happened? If so he wrote an article on it and I believe you were up against QQ.

But anyway, I push.

EDIT: OK, probably wasn't you

http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_maga...amp;m_id=65573

Re: Royal Draw WSOP Main Event
 

You really need to structure the betting on these super draws so that you are the one making him make the hard decision w/ a hand like QT.
He led for 10k, so if you make it 20k, and he decides to reraise, he might make it like 50-60k total. Then you can push and give him a toughie.
You can also call the flop bet and see what comes on the turn (with the intention of either milking if you hit an out, or semibluff pushing if not). You call the flop bet of 10k. There would be around 40k in the pot if he makes another potsized bet on the turn and you can push and give him a lot to think about with QT.
The raise to 30k leaves you in a rough spot, since his reraise was such that it left you w/ zero FE (except against a bluff). I like either a smaller or larger raise (something that lets him know that HE has no FE like 45-50k).
Given the way it went down, I think that there is too good a chance that he has a smaller flush draw, a pair/flush draw, AQ/KQ/QJ to make a laydown possible. You are probably a little better than 50% against his range. Even against a set, you are only like 57-43.

In summary, with super draws, think about the pot size so that you can structure the betting so that you are the one allowing HIM to make the 'big' laydown.

*advice stolen from paul phillips

interesting hand, btw.