How's your SSNLHE?: A7o

[ajmargarine]

Here's another one. A type of hand I used to misplay when I was first starting out. Posted for (limited) educational value.

NLHE .50/$1 Full Table, 10-handed. Everyone deep stacked. No reads on anyone. Here's how the hand starts:

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] . SB posts a blind of $0.50.
UTG calls $1, 2 folds, Action is on Hero...

[ajmargarine]

ANSWER KEY:










Boring hand, yes. But if you play 100NL or less you see people playing any-ace all the time, which is not goot. Scoring is 0-10. 0 being Donktastic. 10 being Xorbie-like.

Question # 1 --

(10) Fold - clearly best.
(1) Call - limping in with Ax off in EP like this is a leak, plug it.
(0) Raises to $2 - May I suggest you take up checkers?
(2) Raises to $5 - Very aggressive, w/o reads hard to do this.
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Question # 2 --

(10) Folds- Hands likely to get messy, and you are probably already behind.
(0) Calls- Top pair, bad kicker. Get out while you can.
(0) Raises- Can I add you to my buddy list?
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Question # 3 --

(0) Fold- You went this far, and now you fold with a legit chance?
(10) Call- Pots big and now you got a shot.
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Question # 4 --

(0) Pot Odds- Not quite. $50 pot, $13 to call is 3.8:1. You are 4.1:1 to hit your flush.
(10) Implied Odds- Yup. Should be able to make up that small difference on the river if you hit.
(0) Semi-bluff- nope, sorry
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Question # 5 --

(3) Ax- a chance, but it's likely he is stronger than this.
(9) 2pr/set- very likely given his lead into a large field, and call with likely made flush out there.
(0) Flush- unlikely
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Question # 6 --

(10) <33%- Taken at face value, you are probably in 3rd place of 3 hands.
(2) 33%-66%- Maybe, but 2 players would have to misplay for you to be up.
(0) >66%- No way.

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Hand results. River brought the 9h. SB bets, Hero folds, CO calls. SB's A9 makes a full house and scoops vs. CO's 6c5c, a baby flush. Thanks for playing along. Comments welcome.

[ianlippert]

Thats a really interesting poll format. Mabey you should try it with a more interesting hand. A7o is an easy fold, but I'd like to see that poll done again with a different hand.

[DyessMan89]

Im a LAG, but even I would fold this preflop.

[ajmargarine]

[ QUOTE ]
Thats a really interesting poll format. Mabey you should try it with a more interesting hand. A7o is an easy fold, but I'd like to see that poll done again with a different hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. This is really a newbie/beginner type hand. Will try to do something more advanced next time.

[Shibby]

How much more are you going to be able to get out of either of your opponents if another club comes? You're more than likely not taking anyones stack, so I don't see the implied odds argument at all.

[ajmargarine]

[ QUOTE ]
How much more are you going to be able to get out of either of your opponents if another club comes? You're more than likely not taking anyones stack, so I don't see the implied odds argument at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, as it says in the answer key, you are 4.1:1 to make a flush. That is if you give yourself 9 flush outs. If we hit our flush, it's impossible for someone to have a boat to beat us (given the board and our Ac), so it will be good. The pot would need to be $53.30 (4.1*$13) for us to have pot odds to call the $13 turn bet. It's only $50.

My understanding of implied odds says that if we are short on immediate pot odds to make a call like we are here, if we can make up the shortfall on later streets, we have implied odds to call. We only need to make up $3.20, which someone would surely call if we hit and bet that on the river.

So, we do have implied odds to make the call if we count 9 flush outs. But, as xorbie points out, can we count 9 outs here? What should be Hero's method of calculating his outs? If he gives himself even one less out, 8, he's probably going to be unable to make up the shortfall on the river to have implied odds to call. And, as you say, you're not stacking anyone if a four-flush hits the board; if we assume CO has a flush, and give Hero 7 outs to hit, no way can Hero make up that big of a shortfall.

Somewhat interesting. So, what's the answer? How many outs can Hero count on the turn?

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FWIW, these poll hands are mostly fictional or modified in some way. They won't be hands Hero (me) has actually played, and decisions Hero makes in the hands aren't necessarily going to be the way I would play the hand. They're for discussion/educational purposes, semi-inspired by the sweating TWP experience. I had the idea before, but we saw the interest there, and this is sort of a modified sweat. And thanks to all for the positive responses. They are fun for me to put together.

[Macedon]

[ QUOTE ]
Thats a really interesting poll format. Mabey you should try it with a more interesting hand. A7o is an easy fold, but I'd like to see that poll done again with a different hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Perhaps the poll/questions would have been more difficult if you held A7o in last position, with 2 loose limpers calling in early position. What would you do if Pl#1 bets 2/3 of the pot and Pl#2 calls? Do you call with your 7 kicker and a backdoor flush draw?

What if on the turn Pl#1 checks when the third flush card falls but Pl#2 bets $10 into a $24 pot.....do you call, now that you have 4 to a flush? Or would calling only being justified if you know that Loose Pl#1 will call.

[bweiser8311962]

[ QUOTE ]
Question # 5 --

(3) Ax- a chance, but it's likely he is stronger than this.
(9) 2pr/set- very likely given his lead into a large field, and call with likely made flush out there.
(0) Flush- unlikely


[/ QUOTE ]

Flush unlikely? Not at any site I've ever played. The flush is there 90 percent of the time.

[crosse91]

this is a great idea, cheifly b/c it forces me to think about EVERY step/scenario of a hand.