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#1
09-13-2005, 08:46 AM
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Flopping a strong draw with KTs
The cast:
MP3 is TAG Button is 38/3/0.x MP2 is TAG CO is TAG Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. 3 folds, <font color="red">Hero raises</font>, 1 fold, <font color="red">MP3 3-bets</font>, 1 fold, Button calls, 2 folds, Hero calls. Flop: (10.33 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)</font> Hero... What do you wanna do now, flop/turn plan? 
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#2
09-13-2005, 09:29 AM
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Re: Flopping a strong draw with KTs
why did you provide a read of CO if he isn't in the hand? messed up converter?
people probably would c/r here if button stays in, but it screams flush draw if/when we check the turn. i thought about betting out, but i just haven't come up with a plan/reason if it is an optimal line to consider.
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#3
09-13-2005, 09:50 AM
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Re: Flopping a strong draw with KTs
[ QUOTE ]
why did you provide a read of CO if he isn't in the hand? messed up converter? [/ QUOTE ] Same goes for MP2, both reads I provided to make clear raising preflop is good. [ QUOTE ] people probably would c/r here if button stays in, but it screams flush draw if/when we check the turn. i thought about betting out, but i just haven't come up with a plan/reason if it is an optimal line to consider. [/ QUOTE ] My thoughts: I check/raise this flop with the only exception if it's get checked through. With 2 overs and a flushdraw I have great equity 3-ways. Since pfr probably will autobet this flop a check/raise is correct even if it gets HU IMO. The raise will not lose me much when behind (because of my equity), but will sometimes buy me a large pot by the folding equity I gain on the turn. More comments appreciated.
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#4
09-13-2005, 10:53 AM
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Re: Flopping a strong draw with KTs
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] why did you provide a read of CO if he isn't in the hand? messed up converter? [/ QUOTE ] Same goes for MP2, both reads I provided to make clear raising preflop is good. [ QUOTE ] people probably would c/r here if button stays in, but it screams flush draw if/when we check the turn. i thought about betting out, but i just haven't come up with a plan/reason if it is an optimal line to consider. [/ QUOTE ] My thoughts: I check/raise this flop with the only exception if it's get checked through. With 2 overs and a flushdraw I have great equity 3-ways. Since pfr probably will autobet this flop a check/raise is correct even if it gets HU IMO. The raise will not lose me much when behind (because of my equity), but will sometimes buy me a large pot by the folding equity I gain on the turn. More comments appreciated. [/ QUOTE ] I think you are overestimating your equity. Against a 3-bet, I would think more often than not a K ends up costing you money.
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#5
09-13-2005, 12:08 PM
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Re: Flopping a strong draw with KTs
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] why did you provide a read of CO if he isn't in the hand? messed up converter? [/ QUOTE ] Same goes for MP2, both reads I provided to make clear raising preflop is good. [ QUOTE ] people probably would c/r here if button stays in, but it screams flush draw if/when we check the turn. i thought about betting out, but i just haven't come up with a plan/reason if it is an optimal line to consider. [/ QUOTE ] My thoughts: I check/raise this flop with the only exception if it's get checked through. With 2 overs and a flushdraw I have great equity 3-ways. Since pfr probably will autobet this flop a check/raise is correct even if it gets HU IMO. The raise will not lose me much when behind (because of my equity), but will sometimes buy me a large pot by the folding equity I gain on the turn. More comments appreciated. [/ QUOTE ] I think you are overestimating your equity. Against a 3-bet, I would think more often than not a K ends up costing you money. [/ QUOTE ] Against a 3-bet I agree, our equity isn't great. That wouldmost often mean we're up against AA/KK/QQ/JJ/TT. But these are only 24 combinations and against 15 of them we'll have 12 outs (our K outs is good ~50% of the times we get 3-betted).
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#6
09-13-2005, 12:18 PM
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Re: Flopping a strong draw with KTs
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] why did you provide a read of CO if he isn't in the hand? messed up converter? [/ QUOTE ] Same goes for MP2, both reads I provided to make clear raising preflop is good. [ QUOTE ] people probably would c/r here if button stays in, but it screams flush draw if/when we check the turn. i thought about betting out, but i just haven't come up with a plan/reason if it is an optimal line to consider. [/ QUOTE ] My thoughts: I check/raise this flop with the only exception if it's get checked through. With 2 overs and a flushdraw I have great equity 3-ways. Since pfr probably will autobet this flop a check/raise is correct even if it gets HU IMO. The raise will not lose me much when behind (because of my equity), but will sometimes buy me a large pot by the folding equity I gain on the turn. More comments appreciated. [/ QUOTE ] I think you are overestimating your equity. Against a 3-bet, I would think more often than not a K ends up costing you money. [/ QUOTE ] Against a 3-bet I agree, our equity isn't great. That wouldmost often mean we're up against AA/KK/QQ/JJ/TT. But these are only 24 combinations and against 15 of them we'll have 12 outs (our K outs is good ~50% of the times we get 3-betted). [/ QUOTE ] AK (12) - 12 outs. AA (6) - 9 outs. KK (6) - 9 outs. QQ (6) - 12 outs. JJ (6) - 12 outs. TT (6) - 12 outs. 99 (3) - 6.5 outs (weighted to account for the redraw against a turned flush). 10.83 weighted outs. Plenty of equity 3-ways but losing money when you c/r and are 3-bet, folding out Button. Rob
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#7
09-13-2005, 09:49 AM
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Re: Flopping a strong draw with KTs
I would check raise here. If you don't make your flush on the turn c/c and c/f the river pending you don't make your flush.
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#8
09-13-2005, 09:56 AM
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Re: Flopping a strong draw with KTs
[ QUOTE ]
I would check raise here. If you don't make your flush on the turn c/c and c/f the river pending you don't make your flush. [/ QUOTE ] Check/calling the turn if it gets HU is a big mistake after you check/raised the flop IMO.
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#9
09-13-2005, 10:01 AM
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Re: Flopping a strong draw with KTs
[ QUOTE ]
Check/calling the turn if it gets HU is a big mistake after you check/raised the flop IM [/ QUOTE ] this is why i hate c/r here especially w/ only K-high, but i guess with villain being a TAG he could lay down A-high UI here on the turn. SIDENOTE: i've never been very good playing draws OOP [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] but my posting-spewage just got me C/T- does that make my advice better [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]
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