Brilliance or idiocy. What's your pick?

[MrMoo]

UTG was a good player. No other reads

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t8000 (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

SB (t75712)
BB (t147090)
UTG (t126540)
UTG+1 (t129302)
Hero (t172510)
MP2 (t97625)
MP3 (t76160)
CO (t19350)
Button (t133409)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to t24000</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls t24000, <font color="#666666">6 folds</font>.

Flop: (t51200) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets t24000</font>, Hero calls t24000.

Turn: (t99200) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets t24000</font>, Hero calls t24000.

River: (t147200) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t54000</font>

I don't like it, you're getting absolutely no information out of the better that you've labelled a solid player. Why not raise the flop and see where you stand?

[Exitonly]

Or....

push preflop... AKs and taking the pot there will increase your stack by nearly 40k... and you'll get called by AQs and by mid PP's for a coinflip that you should be alright with.

[MrMoo]

Preflop I think I'm ahead. I'd think a QQ-22 would likely raise it up 4-5x BB. Not that I'm discounting those hands, I just think it's more likely he's got two high cards. Probably 65% he's unpaired. So given that I think I'm ahead, do you think a push gets the most chips? I think a push would get AJ, A10, A9s, KQ to fold. All likely possabilities and all hands I'd love to play with.

[Exitonly]

yea you chase away hands that you have beat.but you're going to play the rest of the hand w/o the lead, and most flops arent going to help you, and you wont know where you are... like on this flop.. and then you're in a situation where you're commited for the rest oncec you raise the flop.

[MrMoo]

I don't have the lead, but I DO have position.

I think the key to this hand, and why I personally like it is, given my action what does he put ME on?

[fnurt]

It's very dangerous to take a player you have no reads on, and decide you can guess his hand based upon the size of his raise. Maybe he raises 4-5xBB with a pair, maybe not, but I don't know any "good players" who are that predictable.

The river bet is simply a guess that he has nothing. The guess might be correct, but I don't see any real basis for it. More often than not this kind of bluff will just get picked off.

Some of us get scared when the opponent flat calls, and we translate that into an assumption that the opponent must get equally scared when we flat call. In general, that only works at a high level. In your typical online tournament, I tend to assume that the other guy is calling me down with garden variety donkey stuff; and that is probably what he assumes about me, too.

[rwanger]

His check is suspect on the river, but I don't see how a "good" player would be betting a hand that you have beat in this way. Do you really think he'd bet tiny on flop and turn, committing 60% of his stack without a hand?

His betting pattern sounds like that of a bad player,
or:
-a good player with a great hand
-a good player with a decent but not great hand (certainly good enough to call the 1/3 pot sized bet of yours on the river).

I'd expect to see AQ (who might have been scared of the flush card, but was willing to call anyway, AND give you a chance to bluff at it), or AJ that made a weak blocking bet on the turn.

I don't know how you have been playing, but from his point of view, there are a ton of draws, and if he has nothing more than high unpaired cards, he's letting you get there VERY cheaply while committing most of his stack.

[MrMoo]

I do have a read on him. I have a read that he is a good player. From that read I can play lines that I would expect him to understand. I can assume that unless he's got a queen, my flat calls are scaring the crap out of him.

The river bet isn't a guess that he has nothing. It's a dangerous but in my opinion +EV line which can only really be called by a few hands, AA, KK, Qx, and possibly AJ, KJ.

Your third paragraph is spot on. Against a typical player I wouldn't even consider doing this. Against this player, I think he's smart enough to lay down a lot of his hands here.

[MrMoo]

Fair enough.

What would you raise to on the flop? If he called, whats his hand range? If he pushes whats his hand range? What would be your response to either the call or the push?